RTA expert Dorin Mocanu predicts the future struggle for power in the ruling coalition and is sure that ‘Si vis pacem, para bellum’ is just about the current politics of Moldova.
Dorin Mocanu, RTA:
Almost two months have passed since the anti-oligarchic ‘revolution’ in Moldova. Many citizens and politicians romanticized the events of early June and saw them as epoch-making milestones in Moldovan history, with which one can and should invest hopes in a bright future. Although the transit of power in the country is clearly delayed, there are already grounds to draw the first conclusions and make forecasts about the direction how the situation will develop.
Since then, reports on dismissals and appointments of officials have been the main and perhaps the only relevant information in the public space of Moldova. But no one in the Moldovan government has actually taken any significant practical steps, and there are simply no other results, except for personnel reshuffles. Meanwhile, the emotional uplift from the gradual overthrow of the ruling regime of Plahotniuc, as well as the credit of trust received from citizens, have their limits, especially in the conditions of inflated expectations from the new government. Therefore, soon the further practice of the celebrated idea of ‘deoligarchization’ without tangible results in the form of high-profile imprisonments may lose its former charge and work against the ruling coalition.
Exclusively tactical personnel reshuffle and only partial adjustments in the policy of the country give rise to sad thoughts: the new government may simply not have a clear strategy for managing the state in the medium and long term. Only after a month and a half the current government of Sandu brought before the society a draft Action Plan of the government of Moldova for 2019-2020. The slow preparation of a document of this kind by any Cabinet of Ministers, and for a period of less than a year and a half, clearly hints that the ACUM realizes that the government of Maia Sandu is temporary.
However, there is still a ‘nonaggression pact’ between the Party of Socialists and the ACUM bloc. For many experts it became obvious that the unspoken agreement ‘on the rules of conduct and the game’ still allows the two forces with polar political beliefs to continue cooperation. In addition, so far, the PSRM and ACUM have focused on the ‘acquisition’ of offices and entire departments. At the same time, certain elements of conflicts, mutual negative assessments and discontent are leaking, including into the public space. This confirms that the relationship between the ‘forced allies’ is still complicated.
One of the most headline-making was the recent attack by one of the pro-European deputies Octavian Ticu, who even called the current President Igor Dodon “political corpse”. Moreover, the MP questioned the future of the union of socialists and ACUM bloc, which, in his opinion, is engaged in ‘indecent’ things: political division of portfolios, ministries and foreign diplomatic missions. It is difficult to say what motivated Mr. Ticu – a conscience or an attempt to bargain for a position – but the situation eloquently shows that everything goes really not easy in the alliance.
The opposition represented by the Democrats who have lost power tries to stay fit and does not lose time, fueling centrifugal processes in the camp of the ruling coalition and mutual suspicions of socialists and right-wingers. A relevant example is the appointment of the acting Prosecutor General of Moldova, supported not only by the deputies from the ruling coalition, but also, to everyone’s surprise, by the parliamentarians from the PDM faction. Democrats still persist in all authorities and can bring quite a lot of trouble for the Sandu-Dodon coalition.
Most likely, the local elections scheduled for this autumn will be a decisive final stage in the redistribution of power resources between the ACUM and the PSRM at the national level. At the same time, as the situation around Chisinau shows, the parties failed to reach any compromise on the territories and single candidates and the current Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Nastase and socialist Ion Ceban will once again turn on each other in the ‘battle for the capital’.
The general leitmotif of what is happening in Moldova can be associated with the colourful expression ‘if you want peace, prepare for war’. The parties in power adhere to this principle when they ‘pump up’ their political potential as much as time and counter-partners allow. By necessary time, both sides will try to gather as many administrative, media and financial resources as possible. With all the allied entourage and declared good intentions, there is a strong feeling that the alliance is still a temporary phenomenon before the decisive political battle between the PSRM and the ACUM.
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