While the authorities and the opposition continue adding fuel to the fire of the current crisis, it seems that the necessary decisions have already been made on the outer perimeter which are to launch deep transformations in the Moldovan political system.
Taking into account people’s deputies activity in the Moldovan parliament, who do daily generate creative ideas about exiting from the parliamentary-presidential clinch, March 23 approaching(the date Maia Sandu plans to appeal to the Constitutional Court afterwards) is apparently seriously considered by the MPs as a big risk. This suggests that the highest court may still find grounds for dissolving republic’s current composition of the legislative body.
Political parties, with good chances to get outside the parliament building, are increasingly and aggressively appealing to the need to form an anti-crisis government as soon as possible against the backdrop of a worsening epidemiological situation. One of the most noteworthy indicators is the Democratic Party of Moldova’s behavior, whose leaders are by far some of the most sophisticated in Moldovan politics and, perhaps, best of all feel the right moment to step out of the shadows and engage in the decisive phase of negotiations. This would explain Pavel Filip approaching the podium and his four points voicing, since they are proposed as a roadmap that would consolidate all political forces for further joint actions.
Meanwhile, Igor Dodon seems to be feeling a loss of momentum and a decrease in personal perception on the part of political partners. However, he does not still deviate from his conflict agenda regarding the incumbent president and continues gently throwing over the idea of readiness to head the government, but so far only under the conditions of a renewed parliament. This “flexible” behavior on the part of the socialist leader that is being characterized by an almost daily adjustment of rhetoric and tactics of action, might be due to the lack of a verified strategic plan at the top of the PSRM, when the planning horizon does not exceed several days.
Due to the United States’ expressed position, the expected more active involvement of international partners in what is happening in Chisinau began to gradually become clearer and take shape. After several weeks of observations and even possible coordination with the center, American Ambassador Derek Hogan has finally broken the “radio silence” mode. He has probably received the necessary instructions from Washington and took a number of actions that make it possible to better understand the current position of the United States in relation to the situation in Moldova and further prospects for its development.
First of all, one should pay attention to a kind of message that the American diplomat voiced to Moldovan politicians, symbolically publishing it on the Anticoruptie.md website, a non-governmental organization of the same name. The open and targeted nature of the message indicates Washington’s decision to draw a clear internal political divide and point out the only correct, in the opinion of the United States, strategic course for the development of the Moldovan state – namely, a deep transformation and fight against the current corrupt system.
It is possible that the solo meeting between Igor Dodon and Dereck Hogan a few days ago was also connected with the need to personally convey Washington’s position to the PSRM leader to moderate the socialist ardor, given their intention to put Maia Sandu out of game by any means. No response from the Socialist party to the US Ambassador’s very harsh statements in his message (which sound no less eloquent than Peter Michalko’s recent statements) together with harmless decisions to overcome the institutional crisis adopted by the PSRM executive committee the day after the Hogan-Dodon meeting once again confirm special opportunities of the American diplomacy in the Moldovan sector.
That the American efforts have broken the ice was made clear inter alia by yesterday’s statements by the PAS party, loyal to Sandu. PAS which is gradually shifting away from its extreme views and reticence has called on the parliamentary forces to set the date and format of the dialogue to negotiate a common vaccination strategy and work out protective measures against the imminent massive spread of COVID-19. It is possible that the retinue of the Moldovan president realized that further disengagement from the parliament, and, consequently, from the current processes to counter the pandemic may ultimately have a negative effect on Maia Sandu and PAS’s image.
While Moldovan politicians are busy reflecting on the best ways to overcome deep inter-institutional disagreements, all the necessary decisions to launch deep transformations in the Moldovan political system have already been taken on the external perimeter. To start with, the upcoming parliamentary elections are expected first, which should invoke a serious renovation of Moldova’s political elites. The main role in this process will most likely be assigned to the new cohort of the pro-presidential party, eager by all available means to quickly drive the old generation of Moldovan politicians out of parliament.
It seems that Washington and the new American administration have already defined their strategic task for the next few years and will clearly pursue this line to take maximum control of the situation in Chisinau, as has already happened in the neighboring Ukraine. It is safe to say that the Republic of Moldova has got in sight of the world’s major power for a reason: the United States has probably big plans for our regional space.
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