What Is to Be Expect from the US Secretary of State Visit to Ukraine?

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The new American administration begins defining its strategic lines for the next four years with respect to Eastern European countries Yesterday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Ukraine on his first working visit. The official agenda of the American diplomat includes issues of regional security and defense capability of Ukraine, key reforms and the fight against corruption, energy, as well as the recent relations aggravation between Moscow and Kiev. According to the program, all scheduled meetings are to take place today and after the final press conference, the Secretary of State will leave Ukraine by evening. Anthony Blinken is expected to speak with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, then with Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal, and is to complete his schedule of meetings on Bankova Street with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Perhaps one of the main goals of the official US delegation visit is the need to begin building the future format of US-Ukrainian relations after the change of administration in the White House. It is not excluded that the general parameters of how the further relations will develop were brought from Washington to Kiev. Obviously, it is important for the American administration to define a strategic line for the next four years with regard to Ukraine and still send a new US ambassador, whose post has been vacant for the last two years. Equally significant is the fact that Blinken is accompanied by the newly appointed deputy for political affairs Victoria Nuland. This is a fairly well-known figure in the post-Soviet space, professionally guided not only in the intricacies of Ukrainian domestic politics but in the entire Eastern European region. Nuland's return to office is a clear signal to Moscow that Washington maintains a continuity of approaches and returns to the policies of the Obama administration, including to promoting a hard line in the Ukrainian direction. The Ukrainian leadership will apparently, try to squeeze the maximum out of the current visit, as it counts on a significant increase within the political, defense, financial and investment support from the United States. By the way, the informational artillery preparation on the eve of the visit was more than encouraging for Kiev. In particular, on its website the State Department confirmed Washington's commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine whilst Blinken, in turn, called on allies on social networks to work together and hold Moscow accountable and put pressure to comply with its international obligations. Certainly, the very fact of a high-ranking Washington official’s business trip is actually a powerful gesture of support for the Ukrainian authorities. As a result of the meetings, it is expected that there are to be voiced positive assessments and practical initiatives aimed at strengthening cooperation, promoting reforms in continuing a confident course towards building a modern democratic Ukrainian state. More complex and sensitive issues on the bilateral agenda, as well as quite acceptable criticism of Ukrainian partners, are likely to remain off-record behind the doors of high offices. It will be possible assessing the results of these, probably, difficult negotiations only on the basis of the Ukrainian leadership’s further actions. Kiev connects as well special expectations within the Crimean Platform support and the level of US representation in the framework of the founding conference, which, according to Ukrainian diplomats, can become a guide to action for "doubting capitals" and significantly expand the list of participants in this initiative. The recent meeting of the presidents of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in Warsaw ended up with creating another initiative, this is a kind of "European security belt" on the borders with Russia, which did perfectly and organically fit into the overall consolidated confrontation picture with Moscow. It is possible that American diplomats are also behind this project and during his visit, Blinken plans to discuss its further implementation and the content of this political undertaking. There is no doubt the topic of the settlement in Donbass will become central in the "Ukrainian folder" at the upcoming meeting between Biden and Putin, so one of the important tasks of the US Secretary of State will be the need to ensure a relatively stable situation on the contact line in the near future, so as not to give the Kremlin another reason for disproportionate response. We must assume that in the current conditions, Volodymyr Zelensky is unlikely to be able to directly agree on anything with the Russian leader on the Donbass issue. Therefore, within the framework of the visit, it is important for Washington’s representatives to understand what exactly the American administration could offer Putin during the upcoming meeting, that is, what kind of settlement model can Kiev carry out with the support of the United States. Despite the absolutely loyal Kiev rhetoric on the part of American partners, in fact, at the present time, there is simply no stable systemic cooperation between Washington and Kiev and the delay within the American ambassador appointment clearly confirms it. Ukraine is still firmly embedded in the context of Russian-American relations and therefore is viewed in the White House primarily as a means of restraining Russia and a convenient instrument of pressure on Moscow, admittedly, very effective. It is for these reasons that one should not expect a radical paradigm change or a verified "road map" emerging in relations between the two countries, which could be implemented in parallel with territorial conflicts settlement and that could set a high rate of development for Ukraine. Therefore, Blinken's visit will bring moral satisfaction to Ukrainian politicians to a greater extent and is unlikely to bring any immediate practical benefit.