Opinion: Moldovan Elections and the Russian Factor

Sergiu CEBAN Notwithstanding rumors, Moscow has by no means lost interest in the presidential elections in Moldova and is instead working on other options to strengthen its positions in the republic. The official electoral campaign start is getting closer in Moldova, so last week the main candidates Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu finally submitted their support lists to the CEC. Despite all expectations, the pre-election process is still moving at a reduced speed and the victory contenders are making their last preparations ahead of the difficult socio-political battle. Previous week experience has shown that consolidated pressure on authorities is yielding good results; along with, the head of state’ s entourage is increasingly more seriously and with apprehension taking opposition's accusations of attempts to rig the elections. On September 26, the Central Election Commission approved 139 polling stations, which are planned to be opened abroad. It is noteworthy that the initial number of voting stations in the Russian Federation, which caused the greatest opposition and civil society’s resonance and sharp reaction, got more than halved. On the other hand, it still increased if compared with previous electoral cycles (while in a number of foreign countries it on the contrary, decreased), and that left the opposition a criticism reason. Against this background, the 42 polling stations that are to open for the left bank residents appears a broad gesture towards fellow citizens who live on the uncontrolled territory. At the same time, Tiraspol has strengthened restrictive measures and made it impossible to arrange Transdniestrian voters transporting, a fact that neutralizes the Transdniestrian vote influence factor in the upcoming elections. The bulk of candidates so far continues focusing on compatriots’ votes in Russia, taking into account the special electoral process in this country. The main points of concern among alternative candidates are the difficulties to organize observation at each of the polling stations and Igor Dodon’s certain support from Moscow. It is not excluded that the Russian side, proceeding from anti-epidemiological considerations and to remove any suspicions from itself can unilaterally reduce the number of polling stations. Once convinced of the taken measures’ effectiveness, the five opposition candidates made, in fact, the first attempt at pre-election efforts consolidation and signed a collective letter to the main development partners requesting to prevent falsification of election results, which, in their opinion, is being prepared by the incumbent president and his campaign headquarters. External partners’ statements on fraud inadmissibility when organizing voting have been heard earlier - now such an initiative will become a reason for more close international monitoring, primarily the head of state’s actions. Under such massive pressure, the main source of international and, to some extent, domestic legitimacy for Igor Dodon remains Moscow's support. Recently, many experts have begun paying attention to the changed perception level of the Moldovan leader and to the growing distance between public declarations and specific decisions on assistance. In this sense, it did not either go unnoticed the statement of the Russian president’s press service that there was no meeting scheduled between Vladimir Putin and his Moldovan counterpart during his planned trip to Russia. However, even put together, all these circumstances are unlikely to indicate that Moscow has completely lost interest in the actively developing presidential race. There is reason to believe that the lack of excessive public support for Igor Dodon which irritates opposition candidates is a well-considered position of the Kremlin. A confirmation that the Republic of Moldova current government can still count on fraternal assistance from Russia serves the ongoing negotiations on the Russian loan provision, which may reach the republic exactly on the eve of the vote. In addition, it became known today that there’s to take place a planned video conference between Dodon and Putin; one that the Russian leader’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov called as full-format negotiations. At the same time, Russian experts do express opinion that while the collective West heavily relies on its protégé uncontested symbolic victory in the presidential election, Russia is considering the situation in a broader strategic vein, calculating scenarios for an extraordinary parliamentary campaign. It is possible that soon we may observe the ascension of the younger Socialist Party generation, capable to refresh the PSRM image and attract new supporters. Indirect signs also indicate that the Russian side is busy rethinking its attitude towards the Moldovan situation in the view of strengthening its long-term position, less dependent on any private factors.