A Difficult Choice for Pro-Moldovan Forces: Uniting to Survive or Disappearing out of the Political Arena

Vladimir ROTAR The risk of losing elections threatens with fatal consequences forces that identify themselves as pro-state ones. Recently, the iData company published the results of a poll dedicated to the upcoming early parliamentary elections. According to the study, only three formations confidently enter the country’s main legislative body: the pro-presidential PAS (39.1%), the bloc of communists and socialists (33.4%) and the SHOR party (10.1%). The rest are at risk of being left behind: Renato Usatii, who took the fourth place within political force, needs another two percent of the vote to meet the tough electoral threshold for blocs, whilst the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians is a slightly not getting the full amount. Other parties, however, are far from the cherished five percent. At the same time, at least a quarter of our fellow citizens have not yet decided on their choice, and all the participants in the race will still compete for their votes. As seen from public statements, PAS has practically no doubts about its victory, moreover, even about obtaining a sole majority. Well, many experts doubt the achievability of such a result, although they admit that if force majeure does not happen, it is Action and Solidarity that will have the largest faction in the legislature. On the other hand, it has no value if left alone: since no one can form a ruling coalition alone, then all the same it will be necessary to negotiate with other winners. And, as the entire experience of parliamentary life in the country testifies, huge problems always arise with this. However, there is no doubt that Chisinau’s international partners are ready to give the necessary impetus, and are increasingly showing themselves in the Moldovan political life. Washington, Brussels and Bucharest now do often overstep permissible boundaries within interstate relations, and seek to ensure a leading position for their protégés at any cost. This, in turn, causes natural rebuffs from the Kremlin, which accuses Western capitals of interfering in internal Moldovan affairs. Thus, a geopolitical tint is given to yet another electoral cycle, which, instead of presenting positive development programs, is once again slipping into the banal West-East opposition. The main participants in the campaign also operate in a given system of geopolitical coordinates. On the one side of the ring get located pro-Western forces professing complete loyalty to the country's Euro-Atlantic course. This is a rather motley crowd led by the nominal leader Maia Sandu, who is more likely to be used as a banner, rather than a real leader. After all, on this flank there are parties and politicians who have often shown practically hostility to the head of state. Pro-European formations are disunited and constantly compete with each other, which can be easily traced through the history of the ACUM bloc. All the unionists cannot unite any way the want it to. Recently, two conventional centers of attraction have emerged - the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR) and the Party of National Unity, to which small unionist projects gravitate. Due to direct associations with the successful parliamentary party with the same name in Romania, the AUR seems to be taking the lead. However, the persisting dispersion in the unionist environment threatens specialized parties with another loss and no entry into parliament. The right-winged have long learned to skillfully exploit the pro-European orientation, successfully trading it in the West in exchange for money and public support (easily converted into electoral points). The problem is that each “seller” sees himself as a monopolist on the market - now PAS claims this role – since refusing to share with other “like-minded people”. It is possible to reduce this mass to at least some common denominator only thanks to the concentrated efforts of the United States, the EU and Romania. By the way, yesterday Brussels rolled out its "last argument" when approving 600 million euros investment assistance allocation to Moldova. The news got personally delivered by President Maia Sandu. Such a generous financial "carrot" is a clear signal for all doubters and obstinates, who may now be tempted to participate, together with PAS, in mastering such a large pie. On the other side there are the center-left forces located. Most of them, one way or another, have established ties with Moscow but unlike their opponents they do not flaunt their geopolitical landmark and prefer to identify themselves as pro-Moldovan or pro-state ones. In this sector, there is also “feudal fragmentation” (the exception is the creation of a bloc of communists and socialists) and, therefore, many large and not so big players like the Civil Congress and the Party for Development and Unification of Moldova. In the upcoming elections, all these formations will have to face three powerful counter-factors at once: the influence of Western partners, the veil from the presidential elections and the victory of Maia Sandu, as well as the expansion of diaspora voting. Mutual cooperation could neutralize them, but so far it has not been observed. On the contrary, left and center parties are often busy criticizing each other than their ideological opponents. At the same time, the issue of winning parliamentary elections for the left flank is acquiring vital importance. The example of neighboring Ukraine in this regard is indicative. After gaining full power, the "green team" initiated a phased clean-up of the country's political space, including a ban on unwanted parties, sanctions against opposition politicians and the closure of opposition media outlets. And this process is proceeding with the tacit consent of the European Union and with the full approval of the United States. There is no doubt that such events will take place in our republic if an unambiguous victory for the right-wing ones. Their ultimate goal is to be the final Euro-Atlantic forces’ triumph consolidation on the Moldovan Olympus and the further marginalization of their opponents. Therefore, in the current situation, it seems logical to continue unifying tendencies among the center-left parties with a prospect of forming one powerful bloc, in whose vanguard would the most popular and authoritative leaders be located- fortunately, unlike the same unionists, they are here. This could create an attractive alternative for the voter and maximally mobilize the nuclear electorate. Otherwise, all these forces run the risk of being removed for many years, at least from the levers of governing the country, and, as a maximum, from their presence in the country's political arena altogether.