The Rightists' Revenge: Results of Early Elections in Moldova

Sergiu CEBAN

For the first time in thirty years, a right-wing pro-Western party gains an absolute majority in parliament and the ability to solely run the country, at least in the next few years

So, early parliamentary elections took place in Moldova. Judging by the results, they put an end to the complicated internal political confrontation that escalated after the presidential campaign at the end of last year. Now our country finally has a chance to enjoy relative stability, at least for the near future. The Moldovan media give various interpretations of what happened: that the operation to de-oligarchize the country, which started back in the summer of 2019, has completed, or that the Ukrainian model of sole governance has been implemented. One way or another, the next weeks are going to witness the most rapid developments in the country and no one for sure will be left indifferent. The overall turnout did not exceed the indicators of the first round of 2020 presidential elections. As a result, three political formations entered the country's new legislative body: PAS (52%), the Bloc of Communists and Socialists (27%) and the Shor party (5%). If we translate the percentages into deputy mandates, then the pro-presidential party representatives will take more than 60 seats in this parliamentary convocation, and the rest of the participants will share less than 40 seats. Experts expected the current elections to bring surprises, and it seems that the main surprise was such a high result of the main favorite of the pre-election race. The vote was most likely perceived by the citizens as a "third round" of the presidential election. Therefore, the protest inertia, combined with the low electoral activity of citizens disappointed with the left-wing parties, led the general situation to such a result, logical in many respects. It is important for small formations to learn from these election campaign, in order to claim for something in the future. The final results clearly demonstrate that the Moldovan voter is trying to be more conscious when making a choice and is not ready to bet on outdated, primitive or scandalous electoral strategies incapable of influencing the well-being of the population in any way. Apparently, this can explain why citizens voted for PAS en masse. The main disappointment of the elections was the Renato Usatii bloc, which, as it seemed to many experts, would become a "dark horse" in the parliamentary elections, as well as a key element of the post-electoral processes. But, apparently, opinion polls reflected a real picture of what was happening, and the Balti mayor was not some kind of intrigue at all, especially for the townspeople who gave a little more than 20% of the votes for his bloc. The left-bank residents' participation in the voting process was almost the key topic of the last days before the elections. Security agencies raced each other in making the most alarming statements about the expected provocations, massive bribery and organized transportation. However, in fact, it turned out that the  number of the Transdniestrian population who went to the polling stations was not above the indicators of recent years. This, probably, helped avoid any conflict scenarios on the administrative line. Experts also believe that one of the reasons for the sudden high result of the PAS is not so much the broad support of the right-wing pro-Western electorate, as the political absenteeism of citizens who traditionally support left-flank political projects. Apparently, the Moldovan voter did not appreciate the hastily created Communists and Socialists Bloc, expecting something more promising and forward-looking. The Moldovan voters apparently did not believe in the stable Moldovan past associated with the "prosperous" eight-year long period of the Communist Party rule. The result which the bloc obtained is clear evidence that the left flank is in crisis. The form, in which it has existed in recent decades, is no longer of the same relevance and significance for the current generation of voters. The elections have highlighted serious structural changes in the electoral base, especially with regard to the needs and views on the future of the country. It is for this reason that experts have been talking for several years that new projects and new faces should appear in the left-wing political segment to offer a modernized agenda to the population. The right flank seems to have realized this trend long ago and carried out the necessary rebranding in time, which has given its practical results. For a strong government to work efficiently, no less strong opposition is needed to produce permanent pressure. Let's hope that in the near future it will become clear whether the electoral allies - communists and socialists - will remain within the same parliamentary structure. If they do remain, there will be a chance for the Moldovan opposition to be strong in the coming years and actively oppose the PAS majority faction. The short-term forecasts allow stating with confidence that a new government will  have been formed by the end of July that will start deep cleaning of the system and trigger a new bureaucratic configuration. The PAS leaders will obviously face two challenging tasks at the first stage. First, it is important to form the cabinet of ministers from among professional, not only loyal people. Secondly, it is necessary to ensure the internal stability of the parliamentary faction, where two thirds of the deputies have no experience in politics and lawmaking, and will have to deal with the very experienced opposition deputies. To sum up, it's worth noting that not only the country is starting a new long political season, but the Moldovan society is also entering a new stage of its socio-political transformation. The most prominent result of these elections is that, for the first time in thirty years, a right-wing pro-Western party has gained an absolute majority and will independently rule the country in the next few years. This clearly shows that generations have changed in Moldovan society, and the post-Soviet community is being replaced by a generation of rationally and pragmatically thinking citizens who grew up already in independent Moldova and want to see their country developing, without nostalgia for the old days and Soviet Moldova.