Romanian Expert: Russia’s Stance Creates an Opportunity for Moldova’s Reintegration

The concentration of full power in the hands of one party in Moldova, combined with Russia’s compromise position, opens a good window of opportunity for Chisinau to restore the territorial integrity of the republic on its terms

This opinion, in particular, was expressed by an expert from Bucharest, Radu Ungureanu, in an article on the settlement of the Transnistrian issue. He believes that the balance of power well-established around the break-away region has made it more profitable and convenient than ever for Chisinau to solve one of the most long-standing and ambitious tasks of the country’s development: “The first positive factor is the arrival of a pro-European reform team, which, unlike its predecessors, enjoys the absolute confidence of key allies: Romania, the EU and the US. What is important is that this team (many of whose members are Romanian citizens) currently has almost all the power levers, which will only increase with the reorganization of state bodies and institutions. The second positive factor is full mutual understanding with Ukraine. Kiev is ready to help Chisinau in reintegration even at small economic costs for itself.” The analyst also considers positive the tectonic shifts around some territorial conflicts, where the long-standing status quo has been breached, and even without the participation of the most influential geopolitical figures: “Of course, the way in which significant progress has been made in restoring the Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, for example, cannot be called optimal for Moldova. But the very trend towards big changes in conflicts previously frozen for decades inspires”. However, Ungureanu calls Russia’s clearly changing position in the Moldovan direction a decisive factor. “Over the past decade, Moscow has been acting quite exuberantly and, at times, even recklessly in the international arena, and it came at a price. On the other hand, there is Moldova, where we have witnessed a reverse example of very balanced and careful behavior. Back in 2019, the Kremlin acted constructively and even worked together with the US and the EU to drive away the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc and form an alliance of left and right forces. But this year has become even more revealing. The pro-Russian parties’ electoral defeat and the victory of forces preaching a course towards Euro-Atlantic integration was perceived by Moscow quite calmly, and no noticeable cooling followed”, the author writes. The article highlights an important point: the new Moldovan authorities do not make concessions for the sake of partnership with Russia. On the contrary, according to Ungureanu, one could only commend them for not having attempted to maneuver and for clear principles that integration with the EU and cooperation with NATO cannot be subjects of any bargaining. Moreover, Chisinau has the courage now to openly support Ukraine on the Crimean issue and continue to firmly insist, including from the UN rostrum, on the withdrawal of the Russian group from Transdniestria. Nevertheless, even despite all these aspects, Russia is quite optimistic demonstrating willingness to meet and cooperate on any issues. The conclusion suggests itself that the Russian Federation, after many years, has finally matured to keep in mind and consider Moldovan interests,” the expert elaborates. According to the analyst, the successfully completed gas crisis, with a good price and no political conditions for Moldova, and a warm welcome in Moscow of the RM’s Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu, and the abated Transdniestria are the signs of a new Russian approach: “It is obvious that Moscow is doing a lot to ensure that Tiraspol behaves well. No matter how and wherever the Transdniestrian representatives are vocal about all kinds of “blockades” and “restrictions”, we, thank God, barely see any “retaliatory” moves and provocations. I am sure that Moscow can take a considerable credit for that.” Radu Ungureanu explains the reasons for such changes by the fact that after Crimea was annexed, Transdniestria has lost its strategic importance for Russia, whose potential defensive line is shifting towards Ukraine. As a result, the squad cut off from motherland is regarded as a vulnerability rather than an advantage. In his opinion, such a viewpoint is quite viable since it is supported by a number of facts, including the fact that it was Russia that came forward with the initiative to dispose of its weapons depots in Transdniestria. “According to our data, the situation in Moldova is one of the points in talks between Russia and the United States which, despite the confrontational rhetoric, maintain constant communication. Victoria Nuland’s visit was of high-priority in this regard. Russia wants to leave without losing face, and therefore is even ready to slowly cut off an unnecessary linkage to Transdniestria. For example, if we analyze reports from Tiraspol, we can conclude that people there already face certain problems with the Russian passports provision. I think this is hardly a coincidence: Moscow needs to make the most to reduce the number of its citizens there amounting to hundreds of thousands people, so as not to suffer image losses after it finally leaves Moldova,” Ungureanu says. Chisinau, as the analyst claims, is adjusting well to the new realities: “It is clear that Moldova’s tactics in the Transdniestrian settlement process are undergoing changes. The existing dialog formats are deliberately frozen because they no longer meet the objective configuration of forces. The positive effect of this is that the old inefficient platforms, which Tiraspol can cling to appealing to some kind of equal status in negotiations, are about to terminate their functioning. Moscow, as we can see, is just fine with it. The role of the deputy head of Putin’s administration, Dmitry Kozak, can be highlighted in particular. He seems to have drawn conclusions from 2003 and no longer comes up with unrealistic projects, transmitting rather the Kremlin’s moderate and compromise attitude, which once again manifested itself this week when Gazprom showed understanding for Chisinau’s position and agreed to provide a delay for the last gas payments.”