Moscow Bets on “Victory” in Moldova

Sergiu CEBAN

Over the past year, the strategy of Sor and his advisers has included the creation of a wide net of political projects that would attack any election campaign like a swarm of drones in the hope that at least one of them would hit the target. However, in the run-up to the presidential race, it was decided, perhaps at the behest of Russian political technologists, to create a single structure that would consolidate as many voters as possible for the right cause

The protracted presidential and parliamentary election campaign is approaching its decisive phase. Despite the large number of potential candidates, the main political forces are currently trying to nominate a single candidate from a conditionally pro-Western and pro-Russian faction. While everything is more or less clear with regard to the former - Maia Sandu will be the main favorite under any circumstances, the probability of such an explicit choice in the opposition camp is still extremely low. Last week was marked by another enlargement of political entities through the merger of small party projects that never succeeded over the last year or two. The pioneers were four pro-European parties: The Dignity and Truth Platform (DA), the Coalition for Unity and Welfare (CUB), the social-political movement League of Towns and Communes (LOC) and the Party of Change. All of them united in the bloc “Together” (Împreună) and announced the creation of a “Pact for Europe” to which they will invite other “colleagues” to sign. A week later, the inaugural meeting of the Victory bloc (Victoria) was held in Moscow. The main actors there were Ilan Sor, Evghenia Gutul, Marina Tauber, Vasile Bolea, Dmitrii Constantinov and Alexei Lungu. The goal is to restore relations with Russia and the EAEU, as well as with the CIS countries. In addition, the leaders of the bloc expect to win the presidential election. It is not specified what exactly the victory lies in. That is, it is not clear whether they mean electing their candidate or preventing Sandu’s re-election. Andrei Spinu was first who commented the Moscow meeting of Sor’s party activists. He wrote in his Telegram channel: “The whole country saw the traitors of the nation in Moscow. I think it’s safe to say that an organized criminal bloc called “Victory” was created in Moscow. They have emerged in Moscow, close to the Kremlin, so that it is clear who they work for. We have to get rid of them.” The event in the Russian capital was largely due to the failure of the opposition parties to reach a single candidate consent. As a result, there was a risk that everything would go according to the ideal plan for the President’s Office and the political formations opposing the incumbent authorities would simply “skip” the presidential election. Therefore, Sor and his Russian partners chose to initiate the conventional unification of the opposition under the slogan of a common “Victory”. It is not excluded that they tried to entice the Party of Communists and Socialists to Moscow: it is obviously no coincidence that the Bashkan of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gutul, visited the PCRM leader the day before. But, frankly speaking, hardly any Moldovan politicians would agree to appear next to Sor at the event. So far, neither Voronin nor Dodon have commented, at least publicly, on a new political bloc or the likelihood of a common presidential candidate, while jealously watching the Kremlin flirt with the dubious Ilan Sor. The fact that the Communist and Socialist leaders ponder about their (non-)participation in the presidential race may indicate that they are still bargaining with Moscow and are willing to sell their non-nomination for a higher price. Although the political cost for Moscow is now obviously higher, it is quite possible that things will turn out as they did in the autumn of 2022. At that time, Sor launched mass protests but failed to win widespread support from other opposition forces, including those in close contact with the Kremlin. On the one hand, the current Moldovan authorities seem to control the situation in the country. However, the launch of a new political project in Moscow’s hotel halls caused significant tension and nervousness in Chisinau. First of all, we must assume, because of Moscow’s demonstratively rough interference in the internal political and electoral processes in Moldova. Hence the sharp reaction of our officials and politicians, who began to hurl accusations of betrayal, treason against the motherland, culminating in the thorough control of the Moscow congress delegates at the Chisinau airport. This reaction certainly favors more the opposition than the authorities, who, instead of showing confidence and control over the situation, hit the panic button and with their chaotic moves only stir up interest in “Victory”. This increases doubts among voters about the real sustainability of the ruling regime, and triggers a lot of questions about the real reason for such an apparent political fear. A distinctive feature of the “Victory” leaders is their pronounced anti-European position, which in fact partly explains the anger of the current Moldovan elites, for whom opposition to European integration is a primary threat. Whereas previously other Moscow protégés, such as Voronin or Dodon, tried to balance the issue of the external vector, Sor poses a blatant challenge to the system. And one of his important tasks appears to be the disruption/failure of the autumn referendum on the accession to the European Union. Over the past year, the strategy of Sor and his advisers has included the creation of a wide net of political projects that would attack any election campaign like a swarm of drones in the hope that at least one of them would hit the target. For the presidential race, apparently after the Moscow political technologists got involved, it was decided to create a single structure that would be able to consolidate as many voters as possible for the right cause. It is likely that this bloc will hold its pilot massive rally on 9 May. Among other things, it will have to reveal the depth of the socio-political split within the Moldovan society regarding this date - Victory Day or Europe Day? In addition, from a purely political point of view, its results will help to understand what resources the new political structure possesses and what its mobilization and, more importantly, destabilization potential is. As has been said many times, Moscow is again carefully preparing a painful political blow to shatter Moldova’s strategic course. Amid the electoral cycles in the European Union, the main task, of course, is to disrupt the start of official negotiations with Brussels, which will largely depend on the structure of power in our country, internal political stability, continuity of the foreign policy course and the political unity of the republic around the idea of European integration. The emergence of “Victory” is just one of the alarming signals, which will be followed by other decisions, as it is obvious that the Kremlin will not make one main bet on Sor. In particular, Moscow demonstrates its readiness to assume part of the social and financial burden of the Moldovan budget by connecting the Gagauz to the Russian banking system. However, most likely, it’s just a part of what awaits our country, and the overall plan for Moldova clearly includes other “surprises”.