Information Attack on Moldova: Threat or Warning?

Sergiu CEBAN

The message from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service about Maia Sandu’s demand to prepare a forcible takeover of the MoldGRES and a plan to establish control over Transnistria stirred up the Moldovan public and forced Chisinau to give official denials. What was that?

Today, Maia Sandu assumed the office of President for the second time. The atmosphere before this event was already tense, but Russia decided to overshadow it even more. While yesterday the head of state was listing Moldova’s foreign policy priorities for 2025, speaking about the importance of progress in the EU integration and economic diplomacy, the Russian Foreign Intelligence service issued its version of Sandu’s plans for the near future. Namely, military preparations for an attack on the Transnistrian region and the seizure of strategic facilities like MoldGRES. The accusations were so obvious that the official reaction of the Moldovan authorities followed soon. In fact, both the President’s Office and the Bureau for Reintegration spoke in favor of a “peaceful settlement of the conflict”. At the same time, they did not miss the opportunity to criticize the Russians for provoking the energy crisis, attempts to sow fear and distrust among citizens, and expand the zone of instability and confrontation in the region. Over the past day, we have seen a lot of comments on the FIS press release. Some experts were skeptical about the latest “horror stories”, while others took this unexpected attack with some caution, warning against dramatic moods. We also did not come to a consensus in the editorial office. Let’s try to speculate what could have caused this information attack. Analyzing the text of the message, it turns out that it was aimed at conveying several messages, not all of which were obvious. They are trying to convince the inexperienced reader that the foreign intelligence service of the Russian Federation is omnipresent and has sources of information both in Maia Sandu’s entourage and in European offices. Moreover, these sources are so trusted that they allow to draw conclusions about the mood in the leadership of Moldova and the European Union. Since Moscow has such an arsenal of intelligence tools, it is logical to ask why the FIS remained silent during the recent election campaign. After all, meetings with the president on energy and other issues were most likely held quite often in the second half of the year. And since the Russians really have access to information about their content, why didn’t they share it with the Moldovan public earlier, or at least with opposition candidates, the same Alexandr Stoianoglo. The claim that Chisinau will take revenge on the pro-Russian Transnistria by bringing criminal cases against its administration for separatism is a signal to Tiraspol. The essence of this message is that the Moldovan authorities no longer perceive the left bank as a contractual party, and its officials are considered only as criminals. Therefore, any further proposals from Chisinau will be formulated in a clamorous manner. As for Sandu’s alleged demand to prepare the seizure of the Cuciurgan power plant and a plan for a military operation to establish control over the region, including with the aim of eliminating the Russian peacekeeping presence. This looks like a clear warning against the forcible expropriation of Russian energy and military-political assets. By the way, such a scenario only at first glance seems absolutely fantastic. We have already written earlier that, based on the experience of seizing nuclear power plants in Ukraine, such a possibility should not be categorically rejected. Especially considering that Kyiv also lacks additional energy capacity to supply the Odesa oblast. Well, another significant point in the FIS message is the question of how long the Moldovan people will tolerate Maia Sandu and her experiments on Moldova. It is very strange that the mass media attack is directed against the newly re-elected president. And we do not think that Moscow just wanted to spoil Sandu’s solemn entry into the second term. If we are talking about the parliamentary election campaign, then again, the question is how optimal it is to start “artillery preparation” right now. It is clear that the information maneuver of the Russian intelligence officers will always meet with a lively response from individual representatives of the Moldovan political community, who daily, tirelessly, resist the Russian threat and hybrid attacks. Unsurprisingly, some speakers have already developed the topic to the point that Moscow has launched a scenario of technological sabotage and is planning to almost stage a drone attack on critical infrastructure on the left bank of the Dniester. Which Moscow then uses to strengthen propaganda rhetoric and conduct targeted operations against Moldova. We do not suffer from phobias towards the Russian Federation, but, as you know, nothing comes from nothing. So, in our opinion, the releasing false narratives pursued several goals. Some of them are easily considered by all readers, while the rest were targeted, given that intelligence agencies rarely exchange messages through open channels. And the pun-filled manner of presenting the official text is the hallmark of the Russian special services for dismissively conveying the details of the information received from the spot. In addition to mockingly slapping Moldovan counterintelligence officers, the Russian Federation sent a kind of warning to Chisinau. Perhaps to force our authorities to abandon some non-standard measures that could lead to a critical weakening of the political positions of the Transnistrian region and increased threats to Russia’s interests. It is no secret that the closure of the Transnistrian issue was included in a special section of the strategic plans of our Western partners after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Given that geopolitics has moved dramatically on the post-Soviet perimeter, it is obvious that the settlement of the Transnistria’s status will be actualized either during the Russian-Ukrainian diplomatic process or in the context of the ongoing military confrontation. The starting pistol for the Transnistrian problem belongs to the West, and the day and time of the shot will be determined by the totality of circumstances. In particular, the specific possibilities of the Russian Federation to influence the processes around Transnistria in any way will be taken into account. Recall that the previous tense exchange of warnings between Moscow, Kyiv and Chisinau took place in February 2023. Then the Kremlin had to explain in detail its position on a potential attack on the left bank, saying that for the Russian Federation it would be a casus belli. Of course, we are not aware of the underlying causes of the situation, so we will not speculate on all possible conspiracy theories. But let’s assume that yesterday Moscow very elaborately signaled that it is also ready for active measures in case the American and European partners decide to change the balance and status quo around the Transnistrian settlement. This is how the Kremlin hints that it will always find a “convincing” reason to intervene in a situation by non-diplomatic means and prevent a critical weakening of its influence.