Moldova to Celebrate New Year in Crisis

Sergiu CEBAN

Apparently, no New Year miracles will happen, as Moldova is plunging into energy crisis. And the responsibility for it lies also with our authorities, who instigate the worsening of the situation up to the “boiling point”

There is one day left before the New Year, and, at the very least, its beginning promises to be extremely tough. Unfortunately, Moldova has turned out to be a hostage of both geopolitical and internal political circumstances, as well as of someone’s personal ambitions in Chisinau. Therefore, most likely, our country will have to go through another energy shock. In this case, the authorities should take into account that the outcome of the political season as a whole largely depends on the start of the year 2025. Until the last, many experts expected that a solution would be found for humanitarian reasons. However, Saturday’s statement by Gazprom put a fat end to any optimistic expectations. Referring to Chisinau’s refusal to settle the historic debt, the Russian gas monopoly said that it had notified Moldovagaz JSC to impose restrictions on natural gas supplies of up to 0 cubic meters per day from 8:00 MSC on 1 January. In response, Dorin Recean accused the Kremlin of exploiting energy as a political weapon, which leaves Transnistrian residents without light and heat in the middle of winter. In addition, the Prime Minister again refused to recognize any debts as they had become invalid after the audit. The government will now seek legal ways to respond to Gazprom’s decision, including filing a lawsuit in international arbitration to protect national interests and compensate for economic damage to Moldova. This abrupt dismissal of the prospect of Russian gas supplies to the republic out of hand in the context of what are most likely still ongoing negotiations is a very worrying sign. It seems that the scenario in which Gazprom would continue pumping gas, leaving the issue of gas passages to Kyiv, is already ruled out. Consequently, both banks of the Dniester will almost inevitably face energy shortages and related problems in the first days of 2025. It is quite possible that this step by Moscow was provoked by the actions of the ruling regime, which, at the end of the past year, among other things, declared Russia to be the main threat in the adopted National Defense Strategy for 2024-2034. Any European leader could envy the consistency of our authorities and their ability to stir up the fire. For example, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fiсo, without waiting for critical time, travelled to Moscow in order, unlike Chisinau, to obtain an agreement in principle to supply natural gas to his country. Having done this, he has already started to settle the issue of its transit through the Ukrainian territory. So far, Bratislava and Kyiv are engaged in heated negotiations. In a recent public address, the Slovak prime minister threatened to stop electricity exports from 1 January if Ukraine blocks the transit of Russian gas. This is a contrasting model of how issues of national importance are handled. Meanwhile, Tiraspoltransgaz, which supplies gas in the Transnistrian region, has already disconnected 12 public institutions in settlements located in the security zone and under the control of the constitutional authorities. These include four educational institutions, one medical institution and two cultural institutions. In addition, heating has been switched off in several public institutions in Bender, including the territorial units of the Moldovan police and prosecutor’s office. On 1 January, the left bank services are expected to start disconnecting household consumers. These are obviously the forced measures. Tiraspol is well aware of where things are going, including the fact that the situation is being deliberately brought to a critical state. One of the probable motives for this behavior of Chisinau is to get a pretext for the cancellation of the contract between Gazprom and Moldovagaz. Apparently, someone promised our leadership that they would litigate the Russian supplier and force it to pay extra for non-fulfilment of contractual obligations (gas supplies in the contracted volumes). But of course, this does not make it any easier for the administration of the left bank. Thus, no matter what our politicians say to distract our attention, they act according to a clearly defined plan. And a significant part of the blame lies with them. If we proceed from the principle of territorial integrity of the country, the central authorities were obliged to solve the issue of energy supplies for the entire territory of Moldova, and not to shift in an absolutely strange manner all responsibility to Moscow, which allegedly left the Transnistrian region in the cold in winter. Given the rapid approach to the gravest crisis, it seems that the long-standing equation, in which Moscow effectively subsidised Moldova with cheap electricity, is being deliberately destroyed. In return, Chisinau turned a blind eye to unpaid gas supplies to the left bank of the Dniester, which allowed the region to generate profits and support itself. This scheme is now a thing of the past. Therefore, one way or another, the emerging “energy coma” is likely to result in fundamental changes, and we would like to hope that the country’s leadership has prepared specific solutions for such a difficult challenge. Otherwise, such a risky adventure could cost dearly for both the country and the ruling party together with the re-elected president. Judging by recent statements and Recean’s instructions to the Minister of Justice, one of the instruments of pressure on Moscow will be the risk of nationalization of certain strategic assets. It is hard to say yet which ones, but Moldovagaz and MoldGRES come to mind. If the first asset is returned to the state, not only the debt of the right bank, but also the much more massive multi-billion-dollar debt of the left bank can be cancelled. Nationalization of the power plant is even more profitable, which, if the Russian Federation is excluded, will solve a lot of issues with energy supply. Another question is that Chisinau’s desire alone is not enough. It is also necessary to understand to what extent Moscow is ready to leave the capacities that will work, including for the supply of Ukrainian regions. In the coming days, the closest attention, especially of external players, will be focused on Chisinau’s reaction to the impending energy storm and its consequences. Any additional financial burden on citizens can very quickly take political forms, provoking the expansion of protest activity. In fact, December showed that the discontent of some layers of society and professional associations is at the limit. Therefore, the probability of street demonstrations is now much higher than in previous years. To what extent Moscow will be able to demonstrate its continuing strategic role for Moldova in energy supply issues depends on how our authorities will cope. A bad set of circumstances (increased shortages, accidents at critical facilities, stifling tariff increases) will be used to fuel the idea that relations between Moldova and Russia need to be restored, with its interests inevitably taken into account. Thanks to this, access to cheap energy resources may be regained. There is very little time left until the end of the year, and the stakes are growing so fast every day that the chances of compromise, to our great regret, are becoming increasingly vague. I would like to believe that those who decided to play this difficult and dangerous game realize what they are doing and what responsibility they will bear if the whole of Moldova finds itself on the edge of a humanitarian abyss.