Opinion: “Moldova Suffers Another Defeat in the Energy Crisis”

The ruling regime has no option left to get out of the crisis without losses for its image and the country

Semyon ALBU, RTA: The first half of January in Moldova was definitely marked by an acute energy crisis. The current regime has a special talent to provoke every year disturbing events in the field of gas and electricity supplies to the country. And every time we get out of these troubles with losses, no matter how our managers build a “good face with a bad performance”. The most banal example is the situation in autumn 2021, which had to be saved by urgent negotiations between Andrei Spinu and the head of Gazprom. The result: the signing of a poorly designed contract and subsequently a significant increase in purchase prices. But that was only the beginning. This was followed by a “heroic epic” with the achievement of energy independence from Russia in 2022, mutual bickering and scandals in 2023-2024 around compliance with the existing contract, including in terms of auditing the historical debt of the right bank. At one point, the government triumphantly announced that it had achieved energy sovereignty for the country and presented it as a landmark event. This was a lie, of course: up until the end of last year, Moldova received most of its electricity at free prices from a Russian-owned power plant in Transnistria operating with the help of Russian gas. Was the price of Maia Sandu’s and PAS struggle with Russian energy resources high? All too high. Of course, from now on we can buy gas on international markets and we are not dependent on a single seller. However, its price is so high that last winter Moldova was able to survive only thanks to generous loans from Western partners, which led to a sharp increase in the public debt and, consequently, in the cost of servicing it. Utility tariffs for households and economic agents have increased significantly. Hence the record impoverishment of people in decades, according to even official statistics, and the flight of enterprises and investors from the country. The highest inflation on the continent in 2022, more than 30%, is not forgotten. And that’s just what’s on the surface. Now we have reached the endgame of the “PAS war for freedom and dignity” of the republic. By the end of 2024, it became clear that we had consciously chosen the path of crisis: we accused Gazprom of all sins, organized anti-Russian demarches, and the only official who did go to Russia for negotiations - Minister Parlicov - was immediately stripped of his post. Prime Minister Recean, who captured Parlicov’s ministry, took an intransigent stance, so that the news about the cessation of gas supplies to Moldova on 31 December surprised no one. Hard as I’ve tried, I don’t understand the logic of the ruling regime’s actions at all. Why was it necessary to stir up a conflict with the Russians? Some experts, including those on our portal, assumed that in this way PAS wants to give a sharp impetus to the country’s reintegration: they say that Transnistria, left without energy resources, will be promptly “powered” thanks to the right bank, and in exchange will make strong political concessions. As we can see, nothing of the sort is happening at all. On the contrary, one gets the impression that for some reason the authorities were completely unprepared for anything and are now only waiting for someone from outside to deal with the energy and humanitarian problems on the left bank as soon as possible. It seems that the government did not believe that Moscow would cut off supplies, damaging even the pro-Russian Transnistria. They thought that it was possible to earn cheap “loyalty points” in the eyes of the West by constantly quarrelling with the Russians, demonstratively violating the provisions of the gas contract, personally conducting audits and reducing the historical debt by almost 100 times. Or they hoped that when the crisis came, the EU would quickly rush to the rescue and flood all the problems with money and political support. Such reckoning didn’t pay off. Well, we have known for a long time that PAS is very poor in planning and forecasting skills. Now the “efficient” administration of “good people” is especially expensive. There is a natural disaster on the left bank: there is no heat and hot water in houses, and this is in the middle of winter, there are rolling blackouts, industry has stopped, and economic activity has fallen dramatically. That is, literally tens of thousands of people are sitting without basic utilities and without jobs. On the right bank the situation is not so deplorable, but there is nothing to be happy about. Without cheap and stable electricity from MGRES we have to live in the mode of urgent and, obviously, expensive purchases abroad. So far, we are still lucky, and Romania and Ukraine cover our deficit. But given that the Romanian electricity market is generally deficient and the Ukrainian energy system is constantly at risk of missile attacks, this is all a very unreliable option. Besides, even if there will always be enough volumes, the issue of price goes nowhere: tariffs have already risen, which again will result in further ruin for the population, enterprises, and agrarians, as well as rising inflation. The idea of reintegration was hit seriously. Chisinau lost completely, because thanks to our wise leadership, it was initially in a weak position. This time everyone could see how we literally refused to take care of the region’s problems, and instead actually gave the decision to Moscow and Tiraspol itself. The attempt to “take care” at least of those citizens who live in the controlled villages on the left bank ended in a complete fiasco: Maia Sandu was clearly not ready for such a “warm” reception from the locals. Now Chisinau finds itself in a very ambivalent position, which does not bode well. The crisis in Transnistria needs to be solved, and as soon as possible, not to allow things totally deteriorate. However, there is no one to help but Russia. And judging by yesterday’s answers of the Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky, Russia will give gas to the left bank only for its own needs. That is, no more lucrative contract with MoldGRES. Chisinau has to choose: to let this gas in or not. Maia Sandu was quick to announce that the authorities would not interfere with humanitarian supplies. These words were quickly picked up by Tiraspol, saying that now the only help the center can provide is “noninterference”. On the other hand, judging by yesterday’s bellicose statements by Dorin Recean, who threatened to nationalize Moldovagaz and MoldGRES, and the attempts to quickly cover up the discovered scheme for gas imports to Transnistria, the whole story is far from being over. Naturally, it is extremely unfavorable for the authorities to let Tiraspol further receive gas, independently and bypassing the contract between Gazprom and Moldavagaz, while Chisinau is left only with expensive energy resources in the run-up to the elections. So, most likely, the ruling regime will try to somehow disrupt the supply model, which was not invented by them, by making it a condition for its operation to supply such volumes that would allow generating electricity at the MGRES for the whole country. But in this case, there is a great risk of being accused of deliberately continuing the humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, of severing all the ties with the region, of further alienating its population and of launching poorly predictable scenarios of events. In general, the regime has no good options left but it has only itself to blame.