А “Delayed” Revolution in Romania

Christian RUSSU

The forces holding power in Bucharest have managed to overcome the acute phase of the political crisis that swept the country after the scandalous cancellation of the results of the first round of the presidential election. But it can hardly be called a victory - more like postponing problems for the future      

A few weeks after the scandalous cancellation of the presidential election, Romanian society and abroad have developed a more or less clear understanding of the causes of the political crisis and the legality of the measures taken by the authorities to overcome it. While at first the European Commission and mainstream media supported the decisions of the authorities in Bucharest to annul the election results due to alleged external interference, now the prevailing narrative is that Romanian politicians are attempting to sabotage the democratic process. Judge for yourself: the information provided by the secret services about the alleged foreign interference was reduced to advertising on social networks. TikTok was paid 380,000 euros to promote Calin Georgescu - a paltry amount compared to the 11 million euros paid by the same Marcel Ciolacu for his media campaign. For example, Kamala Harris spent $140 million just to increase her audience on Facebook and Instagram, with no success, as we know. However, no one even had the idea to accuse her of anything bad. Moreover, after the US elections, the owner of the social networks himself accused the Democrats of pressure and forced censorship. There was also evidence of cyber-attacks on the IT infrastructure of the Romanian electoral commission, and that was the end of it. There was no evidence of foreign interference, no collusion between Georgescu and any of the foreign politicians. But the fact of a backstage deal” between members of the government coalition to prevent the opposition from coming to power has been confirmed, and in the most unflattering way. In many respects, it was the attempt of the National Liberals to draw votes away from a potential run-off candidate, George Simion, that left their coalition partner Ciolacu out of the running. Be that as it may, the reality is that the elections have been postponed as long as possible - until 4 May. The acute phase of the crisis has passed. The Social Democrats and National Liberals have retained power for six months, although its legitimacy is very much in question. The tensions and bickering intensified not only between the coalition members, but also at the intra-party level. Supporters of the National Liberals are clearly not satisfied with the situation when political “dead-weight” like Nicolae Ciuca and Klaus Iohannis remain in the leadership of the party. Meanwhile, the impeachment campaign against the latter is actively unfolding. What matters here is not the result, but the process itself. Even if the initiative registered by Simion’s party does not gain the necessary 234 votes in parliament, it will still undermine the unity of the ruling coalition and hit its rating. In turn, in the coming months, the opposition will fight against the “usurping head of state” as a symbol of the authoritarian rule of the current government. The prospects of Crin Antonescu being nominated as a single presidential candidate are extremely dim. There is a feeling that his nomination is just a figment. He has not been invited to discuss important topics in the narrow circle of coalitionists, which forces Antonescu to distance himself from dubious political prospects. Other potential participants of the new presidential race are also in a tough position. One of the favourites of the December campaign, Elena Lasconi, seems to have lost her entire support portfolio. The former leader of her own party, the mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, is running for the presidency, but his actions and statements have only worsened the situation. At first, the capital’s mayor called for Calin Georgescu to be prohibited to run. Then he said that the scandalous winner of the cancelled race has every chance to win in the ECHR and challenge the legality of the disruption of the electoral process. Later, the politician admitted that according to opinion polls, Georgescu is the undisputed leader of the Romanian people’s sympathies. It can be said that postponed elections give more advantages to the opposition, as they allow it to unite and pursue a common front. The National Liberals foresaw such a scenario, in which the questionable legitimacy of the government would decrease the popularity of their formation, but the idea of quick re-elections was rejected by the Social Democrats. Marcel Ciolacu’s expectations are not clear yet. It is unlikely that the return from the “gifts” in the form of accession to Schengen and visa-free travel with the USA will help to maintain the failing rating of PSD. That’s why PR people are trying to rebrand Ciolacu by presenting him as the most convenient partner for Donald Trump. “Messengers” from the Social Democrats are trying to establish contacts with the new US administration, and various Romanian politicians in reserve are trampling a path in Mar-a-Lago in coordination with Ciolacu. Ciolacu himself is demonstratively building bridges with Orban and mastering the scandalous TikTok. What about Calin Georgescu himself? His main success in recent weeks has been his institutionalization outside the internet space as a fighter against a corrupt regime and his hopes of reviving Romanian national pride. If the first protest action, when Georgescu went to the polling station on the day of the second round of elections, could not be called successful and numerous, the demonstrations that took over Bucharest on 10 January are already a qualitatively new level. The wave of protest was picked up by his former party partner George Simion, who gathered several thousand people on 12 January. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a one-off. The opposition has every chance to unite and win in May. Bucharest continues to be on the verge of revolution, and these moods are becoming a fashion trend.