War Blackmail - a Desperate Decision by the Regime?

Since no one will believe in the promise of “good times” again, the ruling regime before the elections starts scaring people with bad times: namely, the threat of a “military response” from Ukraine in case of a change of power in Moldova

Semen ALBU, RTA: Sometimes even our inept authorities are capable of creativity, the only pity is that it never serves the good of the country. So, the regime’s new idea is that its loss in the upcoming parliamentary elections could end in a “military response” by Ukraine, which allegedly will not tolerate a “Russian bridgehead” near its western borders. This message was voiced by the well-known Vlad Kulminski in an interview with the Ukrainian outlet European Pravda. One should not think that he is just an expert with his personal opinion. He was not only in the first government team of PAS, but also, apparently, remains a close adviser to Maia Sandu. He is also one of the generators of ideas in her entourage and for the regime as a whole. And such a person speaks about such dangerous and radical things to the Ukrainian audience, and obviously not for nothing. The fact that the narrative was not accidental was confirmed by one of the recent interviews of the president, who actually repeated after Kulminski: if Russia “controls” Moldova, our country will “lose peace”. As if Kyiv will not put up with a 1200-kilometre “unfriendly” border. I must say that such statements look very strange. After all, it was the preservation of peace that the ruling party and Sandu personally boasted about before the elections, and now they suddenly start talking about a military threat. And not from anyone, but from Ukraine, which seems to be our best friend, brother in European integration and most solidarity partner. Well, let’s get to the bottom of it. First, the essence of the statements - of course, they are nonsense all along. Firstly, there are no outright “pro-Russian” forces on the electoral horizon. The opposition, which has a chance to be admitted to the elections, belongs more to the moderate camp: that is, it supports the course of European integration with the only difference being that it calls for not severing ties with Russia. Why these parties should suddenly request an increase in the Russian contingent on Moldovan territory (?) or somehow support the Kremlin in the conflict is absolutely incomprehensible. Besides, it is not clear why Kyiv would attack us, even if the image of the authorities in Chisinau were to change radically. There are other non-military measures - sanctions, restrictions, etc., although I doubt that it will even come to that. And in general, any further events in the region do not hint at armed aggression against Moldova at all. Hypothetically, if the active phase of the war in Ukraine ends this year, which there are chances of, it is unlikely that the neighbors will decide to unleash a new one, especially with the public desire of the main partner in Washington to stop conflicts, not to allow them. If the hostilities continue, then again, Ukrainians will have no time for our internal political turbulence: there are not enough people on the frontline to get involved in some Moldovan adventures. In short, as we can see, all this is nothing more than an empty spine-chiller. And if it had remained only in Kulminski’s interview, it could still be ignored. But, as we see, such a “powerful” idea has already been picked up by the leadership of the republic, not shy of trumpeting it in the media and at international forums. What’s the purpose of this? Mainly, the authorities want to exploit for electoral purposes our main fear - war. People in Moldova have had enough of Ukraine for three years. And now everyone, except for the craziest “hotheads” like Salaru - although they are “hotheads” largely because they do not see themselves in the trenches - realize that no geopolitical trophies and promises will ever compensate for the damage caused by military operations on their own territory. Therefore, if you really make people believe that without PAS the war will start - it will be the strongest argument in the elections. After all, what else does the ruling party can promise to the voters? The country is in such a crisis that there are problems even with the payment of salaries to state employees. Statements about technical problems are just a lame excuse. The consequences of the energy crisis are beginning to take effect: a jump in tariffs threatens to “kill” many agrarians and the remnants of industry, which is already shrinking every year. The amount of compensation from the increased tariffs has raised by a billion, but it is unclear where to get it from, as there is no money for it in the budget. Purchases of expensive electricity and gas drain the currency, create trade imbalances and fuel inflation. And on top of that, it’s also not all that clear with the money from partners. Trump has already suspended American aid for a period of revision, and it is unclear what will happen next. There is, of course, the EU with its announced almost two billion euros of support - and the authorities are signaling to Brussels that the first tranche of 360 million euros is needed as soon as possible. But whether even this will be enough to cover all the crises and management failures of the PAS is hard to say. And we still need funds for at least some pre-election “gifts” to the population. However, perhaps we can do without them this time, since even the Railway has not been able to scrape together the money for a month now. Under such conditions, the only thing left to do is to scare own population. Since there is no hope to attract them with another tale of “good times”, then authorities decided to scare them with “bad times”. That must be the plan. And at the same time, the “pro-Russian” theme can be used to play dirty games against the opposition.  The PAS has already come up with the idea of signing a joint declaration in favor of the withdrawal of Russian troops. I assume that those parties that refuse to sign will quickly be labelled “agents of the Kremlin” with all that entails.