Energy Crisis “Out of Control”

Even by the end of the month, it has not been possible to find a solution for gas supplies to the Transnistrian region. RTA experts comment on how the energy crisis is developing on the banks of the Dniester and what to expect next

Sergiu CEBAN, RTA: After Tiraspol accepted Chisinau’s conditions to receive gas through SA Moldovagaz, there were expectations that the protracted energy crisis was finally close to an end. However, unfortunately, they were not justified. The saddest thing is that the inhabitants of the region are still hostage to both external and internal political circumstances. The daily escalation of accusatory rhetoric is a sign that both sides are still far from an agreed solution. There are more and more emotional demands not to obstruct supplies from Tiraspol, and from Chisinau - not to refuse international assistance and to withdraw the Russian peacekeeping contingent under the financial guarantees of foreign donors. In assessing these positions, let us be frank: when the left bank claims that it has found an alternative source of supply, and Chisinau only needs to open a conditional valve, the retorts about Tiraspol’s false hopes, as no one is going to supply it with “humanitarian gas”, do not look quite convincing and do not fit the status of the central authorities. In the last two days, it has become clear that the crisis is gradually “breaking the banks” and penetrating the international environment. Unable to reach a compromise and unwilling to assume full responsibility, the parties are beginning to appeal to authoritative foreign countries. Tiraspol has already managed to organize something like an online conference and is now preparing appeals to international organizations and individual embassies. If we look at the situation from the position of Chisinau, we have the impression that the resumption of gas supply to the Transnistrian region has reached a dead end, namely the need to make a principled political decision. Yes, it is quite possible that neither Dorin Recean nor Maia Sandu are ready to commit themselves and agree that Moscow will continue to support the left bank with energy resources. However, there seems to be neither time nor resources to prepare a more favorable offer. Therefore, Tiraspol began to publicly pressurize the leadership of the country to accept the terms of the deal. Therefore, while our prime minister is in Davos telling Western partners how Moldova is countering the hybrid attacks of the Kremlin and Tiraspol, yesterday the president summoned Western ambassadors to consult with them on several sensitive topics, including energy. From the meagre words of the head of the EU Delegation and the vague press release of the president’s office, it is difficult to understand what exactly the head of state discussed with the diplomatic corps. That is, whether Chisinau asked for “understanding and forgiveness”, asked for additional assistance due to significantly increased political risks or received recommendations on how to overcome the crisis. Despite all this, right now we can make a moderately optimistic forecast. If it were a warm season, or at least the inter-season, the current situation could probably last for months. However, given the humanitarian drama that has played out on the left bank of the Dniester, it is likely that, with the support of development partners, a solution will be found in the near future, albeit a short-term one. Although it is unlikely to put a definitive end to this issue. Vladimir ROTARI, RTA: Surprisingly, even after almost a month, the energy crisis is not unresolved, but is on the contrary close to its climax. In fact, there is not much time left to find a solution - next week Tiraspol will run out of gas, and then the situation will escalate to such a scale that the consequences are difficult to predict. The further the crisis develops, the more questions arise to the leadership of the country, whose actions so far show neither a premeditated sequence nor logic. Already in December, I think, it was clear that without active actions Transnistria will be left without gas from the new year, and the rest of the country - without cheap electricity from MGRES. Nevertheless, with the dismissal of Parlicov and rather bellicose rhetoric, the authorities showed that they were ready to go down the path of cutting supplies from Gazprom. How could Chisinau justify for itself the significantly higher cost of imported electricity and, accordingly, the increase in tariffs for household consumers and enterprises? Many people asked themselves this question at the end of last year, assuming the existence of certain guarantees from Western partners and plans to take advantage of the situation to break the long-standing energy status quo on the banks of the Dniester. This, in turn, could give a sharp impetus to the country’s reintegration. However, the development of the ensuing crisis, firstly, so far disproves the described version, and, secondly, shows the unexpected unpreparedness of the ruling regime for it, which is difficult to explain. As if it did not expect either that Russia would actually stop the supply or that after a while, for humanitarian reasons, it would want to resume it, but only for the internal consumption of Transnistria. As a result, we have a rather strange and not very solid for the country variability of positions and assessments. At first, the president clearly stated that no obstacles would be created for the supply of even Russian gas to the region. But after Tiraspol and Moscow agreed on a scheme of transportation through a Moldovan trader, the government instantly found a reason to “kill” it, citing legislation. Although the state of emergency allowed the necessary amendments to be quickly adopted through the Emergency Board. A little later, the left bank administration publicly agreed to work with SA Moldovagaz, as demanded by Chisinau. Maia Sandu spoke favorably enough about the new proposals for gas supply to the left bank, and this gave the impression that a compromise had been found. But then, not very clear delays started in the realization of this model. Judging by the fact that Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky has given a series of emotional interviews to local and Russian media in recent days, the situation is far from being resolved. It is still not very clear what exactly official Chisinau wants. The only clearly voiced demand - the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers as a condition for Western aid - does not seem feasible, at least in the near future, and looks more like an excuse for Chisinau to “wash its hands of the situation”. In such a case, the only option is to approve the supplies organized and paid for by Russia, but this option does not work either. For what reasons - because of the desire to achieve political concessions from the region, to force Moscow to pump gas and to generate electricity at the MGRES for the right bank, to somehow build into the new scheme to extract their own margins - is not clear yet. However, over time, the humanitarian and economic situation in Transnistria is deteriorating, as well as the attitude of its population towards the central authorities: the local elites have apparently managed to convince people that Chisinau is responsible for the continuation of the crisis and their troubles. And, admittedly, it was not very difficult, given the odd attitude of our authorities. I assume that until the defining moment, when Tiraspol runs out of gas, some solution will still appear. But it is unlikely to be sustainable - the search for a long-term model will probably be postponed to the future, perhaps with the expectation that regional realities will change after the war in Ukraine and the negotiations on European security between Russia and the West. If suddenly no agreement can be reached, we will enter a very dangerous escalation field: no one knows what a desperate Tiraspol, let alone its allies in Moscow, will do.