Brussels and Moscow Maintain the Status Quo on the Banks of the Dniester?

Sergiu CEBAN

It was decided not to raise the stakes: as a result of the energy crisis, Chisinau and Tiraspol are likely to return to the 2024 conditional position

After four weeks we have heard for the first time from our government something clear about overcoming the energy crisis. Instead of another odd address to the inhabitants of the Transnistrian region, yesterday Dorin Recean finally gave concrete details on how we will overcome the current situation. At the same time, the European Commission published its press release, largely repeating the Prime Minister’s words and confirming the EU’s political intentions to support Moldova. It seems that the main intention of the synchronized broadcast was the desire of Brussels to demonstrate to Moscow its fundamental readiness to provide assistance to our country in the amounts required to maintain the stability of the current ruling regime. The structure of the stabilization energy package for the republic is as follows. First of all, Chisinau will lend Tiraspol 3 million cubic meters of gas under the financial guarantees of the European Union in order to ensure pressure in the system and minimum consumption until the end of the month. This urgent need arose after the left bank administration reported the proximity of exhaustion of its reserves and the risks of a technology-related collapse of the local distribution system. In addition, the EU will provide a grant of 30 million euros for the purchase of additional volumes of gas, which will be delivered to the left bank from 1 to 10 February for humanitarian purposes to restore the heating supply and to generate electricity to cover the needs of both the right bank and Transnistria. Gas supply to large industrial facilities is not included in these supplies. At the beginning of the second decade of February, Chisinau expects to receive from Brussels a two-year long-term energy sustainability programme. In the long term, it envisages investments in electricity generation and distribution. In order to alleviate the problem of high tariffs, it is likely that gas will continue to be purchased for further electricity generation at MGRES at, as Dorin Recean put it, pre-crisis prices. Of course, after the speech by the head of the government, there were many questions, as the devil, as a rule, lies in the details. It is strange that despite the rhetorical readiness to provide as much humanitarian aid as possible, the authorities allocated a token amount of gas to, albeit a specific, part of the country, only on credit and only under the EU financial guarantee. If in this way our leadership decided to pass on the credit of the region’s savior to Brussels, it seems to us not quite reasonable, because on the left bank the main blame for the crisis is still put on Chisinau. For all the pathetics of the Prime Minister that the European Union has once again saved Moldova, including the left bank, anyway, the planning horizon is only 10 February. The programme promised to us after this date, apparently, is still undergoing the approval procedure in the European Commission’s cabinets. Without questioning Ursula von der Leyen’s promises, however, I would like to say that this information should be taken with some caution. Especially after she already promised us 1.8 billion euros last autumn, and now it turns out that this issue is only to be discussed by the European Parliament. I would not like to suspect our government of any deliberate delaying of the decision on the supply or purchase of gas for Transnistria. But it seems that until Chisinau received encouraging news from Brussels, all possible models for restoring gas supply to the region were halted. Up to Sunday, the Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration called Tiraspol’s proposals confused and weird, and mentioned certain risks. The next day Recean suddenly said that Moldovagaz had already been approached by the Hungarian company MOL with a request to go through the “Know your customer” procedure. On the same day, Moldovagaz handed over to the Hungarians a standard contract draft. Apparently, as the press wrote, alternative supplies of blue fuel to the left bank will go through one of the European traders in order to exclude these deals from falling under the current sanctions regimes. By the way, even at the end of last week, the situation for Chisinau left much to be desired, as, apart from encouraging signals from Brussels, there was nothing concrete on hand. Everything was going towards the fact that the government would be forced to accept the resumption of gas supplies for Tiraspol through the Russian scheme and without any chance to return to the contracts with MGRES. For this reason, we believe, Sandu made an urgent visit to Kyiv to guarantee a backup in the form of coal supplies if the indirect gas supply to Transnistria was disrupted or delayed. Despite hopeful promises by high-ranking officials, it is too early to say that Moldova has coped with the most severe energy stress. Multilateral negotiations, including with Tiraspol, will be necessary for the formula to eventually take shape. Although there are a lot of unsettled points in this scheme, which are yet to be clarified in the coming days, nevertheless, the general outlines of the deal, which will ensure a kind of political and energy balance on the banks of the Dniester, are already more or less visible. It seems that Moscow will subsidize gas supplies to the Transnistrian region in an amount that will cover its domestic and industrial-economic needs. Brussels, for its part, will finance the targeted purchase of resources for electricity generation at the MGRES with subsequent supply to the right bank at an affordable price. If we put aside all speculation, mutual accusations and cries of betrayal of national interests, the net result is the restoration of the energy status quo on the banks of the Dniester. It is clear that the configuration of the gas supply has changed due to the cessation of transit supplies through the territory of Ukraine. But if the scheme I have described works, then in fact Chisinau and Tiraspol will return to the 2024 conditional situation. The only thing left to understand now is whether this was the result of a behind-the-scenes agreement between Brussels and Moscow or whether the “geopolitical stars” themselves formed such a mutually acceptable model. If we do not hear any sharp statements or loud political demands in the coming days, it turns out that the big players have decided not to raise the stakes for the time being and not to let Moldova, and together with it the Transnistrian issue, follow an obviously unpredictable trajectory with the risk of losing control over the situation.