Opinion: Only a Miracle Can Save the PAS Rating

Shortly before the start of the parliamentary election campaign, things are going badly for the PAS: people blame the ruling party for the energy crisis and want to see it in opposition rather than in power.

Semeyon Albu, RTA: Remember when I said that by taking the perilous path of the energy crisis, the ruling regime was making a rod for its back. In any case, losses were inevitable – for both its own image and the country. Yes, after a month, the ‘European saviors’ finally arrived to help, handing over the much-needed funds – around 300 million over two years. But these funds will not even be enough to bring the situation back at least to last year. After all, the same compensations for people are only provided to cover the first 110 kilowatts—and it’s unlikely many will manage to stay within that limit. The agribusiness sector will get the bare minimum, and not for everyone, but only for those who ‘meet the criteria’. In other words, both citizens and businesses will once again have to pay for the foolish policies of the PAS. By the way, tens of millions will again be spent on ‘increasing energy sustainability and efficiency’. What will actually be done with this money is anyone’s guess. Another 60 million has been allocated for Transnistria, but this time the assistance comes with a number of conditions, including some that are unpleasant for the region, such as the gradual increase of tariffs to the right-bank level. So far, Tiraspol has not commented on this proposal, which means it is not certain that they will accept it. In other words, after February 10, the crisis that had seemed to retreat could enter a new phase. In general, even with the European helping hand, life has become harder this year. According to the results of the latest IMAS survey, citizens agree with this statement. More than three quarters of respondents plan to reduce their electricity consumption because they are unable to pay the new bills, while 43% of respondents are going to save on food (!) and another 33% are going to borrow money. But most importantly, almost half of the population holds the government responsible for the energy crisis, while less than a quarter blames Russia. An even larger number of residents disagree with the claim that Russia stopped gas supplies to ‘destabilize the situation in Moldova’. This means that the non-stop accusations of Moscow by Maia Sandu’s inner circle couldn’t delude the public. Moreover, people clearly understand not only who is to blame for their new troubles, but also the ruling party’s inability to manage the self-inflicted problem. 74% believe that the authorities reacted too late to the events, 61% think that Recean knew about the planned increase in energy prices and blatantly lied before the presidential elections, and 51% believe that things will only get worse. Additionally, almost no one believes in the so-called energy independence: two-thirds consider this stance to be populist, and 53% are convinced that dependence on Russia still remains. As we see, the loyalty of people regarding the ruling regime is rather low. They are unable to impose their view on the majority even in favorable conditions, with full support from Brussels, in a protected and loyal media environment.  People are tired of the constant crises, endless geopolitics, and, ultimately, of the PAS in general. The IMAS survey data is essentially devastating for the party: a huge negative rating, which seems to make it impossible to hope for a majority status after new elections; the desire of 9 out of 10 respondents for it not to govern the country independently, and half want it to retreat to the opposition altogether; only a quarter of voters are willing to cast their vote for it. The funniest thing is that the number of people who would vote for any ‘pro-Russian’ party turned out to be even higher than those who would support the ‘pro-Europeans’, a vivid result of the four years of ‘good times of rapid Euro-integration’. However, an even larger number of citizens would prefer a force that would finally focus on the country’s internal problems. That said, we should also account for how unreliable sociology is these days, as it usually paints a much rosier picture for the authorities than the reality. You don’t have to look far for examples: the unexpected results of the referendum on joining the EU, presidential elections here, or even in Romania. This is explained both by sociological reluctance to fall into political disgrace by publishing data that’s too unflattering for the ruling elites, and by people’s fear of openly sharing their true opinions. However, in the privacy of the voting booth, nothing will stop them from marking the ticking the box where they really want to. So, in reality, things are likely even worse, and the PAS may face even more dismal results in an actual election. And I would be very surprised if it turns out any differently. According to the same survey, more and more citizens believe that Moldova is moving in the wrong direction – 61% already think so. 42% believe that the past year is worse or much worse than the previous one. Only 3% of respondents are satisfied with their standard of living – apparently, these are the ‘good people’ and their family members. Given these circumstances, it would be very strange if the population doesn’t take the chance to change PAS change in midstream. By the way, here’s another indicator of how disconnected the current regime is from the people: it turns out that half of those surveyed by IMAS don’t care where energy resources are purchased, as long as they’re the cheapest. So, who exactly are our foolish authorities bankrupting the population and the economy for, taking loan after loan and rendering the country financially incapacitated? What’s the benefit for the people when gas isn’t supplied under a stable contract with Russia but at outrageously inflated prices through shady schemes that feed the regime’s elite and their cronies? Is it actually Moldova’s interests that this regime is defending? These are rhetorical questions, but hopefully, we will get answers already in the next elections.