“Asthenia and Decline of a United Europe”

The European Union is losing its status as a prosperous successful association, failing to cope with external challenges

Vladimir ROTARI, RTA: Waves of refugees, the confrontation with Russia, which sharply intensified with the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and now the re-election of Donald Trump as US president have become powerful catalysts for the EU’s numerous problems - political, economic, ideological, migration. Judging by recent events, the change of master in the White House may finally bring down the European “house of cards”. For the European bureaucracy, the new American leader is like a natural disaster - dangerous, unrestrained and completely unpredictable. Meanwhile, Trump as a businessman only looks at things pragmatically. He does not care about such ephemeral matters as “Euro-Atlantic solidarity”. He measures the benefits for his country in terms of national interests, so it is easy for him to understand Russia’s motives. Hence his criticism of allies, compliments to opponents, defining Zelensky as a “dictator without elections” and other statements and actions that break the mold in most European capitals. For Brussels, such “reckless” and “unthinkable” attitude creates tangible difficulties. Accustomed to following the Euro-Atlantic, or at least American, interests as the old U.S. administrations understood them, it has become disoriented and is completely out of step with the trends. Image wise the EU is losing big right now. Calls to continue the conflict in Ukraine “until victory on the battlefield” amid Trump’s peaceful activism look out of place and out of time, presenting Europe as the main warmonger. In fact, untimely rhetoric covers actual emptiness and impotence. The two meetings of the “Kyiv support group” convened by Emmanuel Macron were remembered only for the scandal of non-presence of some EU countries and the lack of any decisions, except for the allocation of another and by no means unprecedented support package. This shows the EU to be not only irrational, but also an impotent player in the eyes of the US, Russia and the Global South. That is why the Americans and Russians, after direct talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which started the peace process on the conflict in Ukraine, almost immediately excluded Europe from the negotiating table. That is, the actor that, to its detriment, carried the colossal burden of providing for a belligerent Kyiv and maintaining the sanctions regime against Russia. The EU was offered to join only at the final stage, and that only to talk about lifting sanctions and nothing else. Instead of taking advantage of the window of peaceful opportunities, Brussels inertially follows a confrontational path. The search for ways to normalize relations with Russia is being replaced by a course of further deterioration. The removal of security threats is replaced by extremely expensive plans to increase defense efforts, which are impossible without cutting social spending. That is, the basis that has made the European Union a “blossoming garden” over the past decades. Such stubbornness and ideological blindness are not only evident on the issue of the war in Ukraine. The same applies to everything else. Europe is obsessed with moralizing, substituting abstract values for national interests. LGBT issues, climate alarmism, tolerance of illegal migration - all these are important, but not when the economies of many countries of the union, including its locomotive, Germany, are collapsing. While the continent is actively arguing about gender-neutral pronouns and planning to “fence the borders”, the US and China are dividing markets, and Russia is strengthening its influence in Africa and the Middle East. Blind adherence to the Biden administration’s course, including confrontation with Russia, deprives the EU of its legal capacity and competence. Even after the departure of the Democrats, no one dares to reset, but outdated messages continue to be broadcast. It cannot be said that everyone is happy with this state of affairs. The internal front is growing, sometimes even breaking into the leadership of some countries: Hungary, Slovakia, and partly Italy. However, we see another problem: the idea of equality among the members of the Union has long been a fiction. Key decisions on migration, energy, Ukraine are taken by a narrow circle and Euro bureaucracy, which can push them through even in spite of the positions of individual capitals. The illusion of equality is supported by the unanimous decision-making model that is still in place, but changing it has long been on the agenda and seems almost inevitable. There is no guarantee that the situation can be changed by the so-called “right wave” - a protest vote for nationalists who oppose the maintenance of ideological conflicts in the external environment and in favor of defending sovereign rights and interests. Such forces are gaining popularity across Europe. On the other hand, they are either excluded from the political field, or they are harassed and universally ostracized. As a result, right-wing parties, even if they win elections, still find themselves in opposition and without real levers of power. This is just one of the blows to the democratic foundations of the EU in recent years. There is also Brussels’ passion for banning media and social platforms that do not fit its ideological and attitudinal criteria, and its direct influence on the electoral processes of member states and candidates. The legitimization of the cancellation of the presidential election in Romania during the second round is the crowning achievement of this democratic devolution. The conclusions and forecasts are discouraging. If the European Union does not start adapting, it will suffer the fate of Byzantium, which was also once a beacon of civilization and wealth - a slow decline under the pressure of internal contradictions and external challenges. There are also more radical scenarios: a split into separate sub-factions, a renaissance of nationalist forces and the withdrawal of a number of countries from the Union. That is Brexit, but on a larger scale. Reform from above is also possible: radical simplification of management structures, rejection of hardened ideological attitudes in favor of a flexible policy oriented towards satisfying own needs. But this requires courage and will, which the current European leaders lack. Therefore, as long as Europe continues to believe in its exceptionalism, it does not notice that the world is already writing new rules - only without it.