Russia-Moldova Relations: A New Step into the Abyss?

The new espionage scandal unfolding around the detention of two “Moldovan intelligence agents’ in Russia may have a particularly unpleasant and dangerous backstory

Semyon ALBU, RTA “An iron curtain has descended across the continent” – this is how British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once described the establishment of the Soviet sphere of influence over Central and Eastern Europe in his famous Fulton speech. Ironically, eighty years later, it is the European countries themselves who are building a new “curtain”, literally fencing themselves off from Russia. Just take the project by the Baltic states, Poland, and Finland to mine the borders with the Russian Federation with millions of explosive charges and erect various defensive fortifications. The cost of this endeavor runs into billions of euros. However, the EU has long demonstrated its readiness to spend extensively on the conflict with Moscow. Despite resistance from some member states, the Union’s highest political institutions are persistently pushing for a complete halt to the purchase of Russian energy resources, even if the fighting in Ukraine ends, and, more broadly, for a radical reduction of mutual contacts. Preparations are in full swing for a prolonged Cold War – style confrontation, with plans to mobilize as much as 800 billion euros for this purpose. Thus, the course aimed at destroying any prospects for normal relations between Russia and the European Union at the outset is clearly strategic and fundamental, especially with the looming prospect of managing such a gigantic volume of funds. Moreover, it allows for “pleasant bonuses” such as curtailing democratic rights and freedoms in the still “blooming garden,” manipulating election results, or even canceling elections, stigmatizing and banning political parties and movements that offer alternatives to the “Brussels line.” And a million other things that until recently seemed like “unthinkable tyranny”. Moldova, where the regime of Maia Sandu and the PAS party is completely dependent on Western support, as expected, unquestionably follows in step with its senior partners, even without formal membership in the EU and NATO. After all, “he who pays the piper calls the tune,” and in recent years, quite a lot has been spent on us. It has come to the point where the Moldovan economy simply cannot function without Western handouts. So whether they want to or not, they have to follow the directives coming down from Brussels, and our authorities are more than happy to comply. Hence the daily cascades of statements and actions that fundamentally destroy ties with Russia. The phrase “Russian hybrid war” has firmly entrenched itself in the vocabulary of the overwhelming majority of high-ranking officials, deputies, as well as sponsored journalists and experts, being used to explain any problems facing modern Moldova and, of course, their own failures. Under the guise of fighting “Russian disinformation and influence,” the media and opposition movements are being widely shut down. In fact, a semi-unofficial ban has been imposed on any interaction with Russia, even in non-political areas such as sports, culture, or education. Everyone is aware of the outrageous scandal involving the denial of entry to hundreds of athletes from Russia and Belarus for a kickboxing championship that was supposed to be held in Chisinau. Among them, there were many children, which did not seem to bother anyone. But this is just the latest high-profile case. Before that, there was harassment of Moldovan teachers who dared to attend courses in Russia, refusals of entry to Russian artists, the decision to close the Russian Center for Science and Culture allegedly due to drone debris, and much more. Even ordinary Russian citizens now find crossing the Moldovan border far from a trivial task. The intensity of anti-Russian propaganda is increasing, including in a historical context. The controversial history textbook for 12th graders is just the tip of the iceberg. The authorities are even ready to talk about the crimes of the Soviet regime against Moldovans at festive events for children on June 1st. In fact, the Ministry of Culture has prepared a multi-year plan aimed at “promoting the culture of memory of the victims of political repressions carried out by the totalitarian communist regime on the territory of the Republic of Moldova during the period 1917-1989”. Among other things, the plan includes erecting monuments to the “heroes of the anti-communist resistance,” producing programs about the fight against “Soviet narratives and ideological manipulation,” and hints at dismantling monuments from the Soviet era. From time to time, the authorities go as far as to escalate the threat of a military attack on Moldova by Moscow. Maya Sandu herself has seriously told everyone about an alleged planned coup attempt supposedly prepared by the Wagner PMC. Now there is a circulating story about 10,000 soldiers that the Russians allegedly plan to send to Transnistria on the border with Ukraine if the opposition wins the parliamentary elections. This claim has been repeated by both Prime Minister Recean and President Sandu, which means it has been, in a sense, officially verified. There were also so-called “spy scandals”. The most memorable episode was when, under the pretext of accusations of eavesdropping using antennas installed on the embassy roof, four and a half dozen diplomats were expelled from Moldova. The funniest thing is that after this, the antennas on the building remained untouched, confirming the completely fabricated nature of the story. After that, several more staff members of the Russian embassy were declared persona non grata, and the new ambassador, Ozerov, still has not had his credentials accepted, in violation of all diplomatic protocols. What am I getting at? Even this brief retrospective of events, in my opinion, clearly demonstrates how Moldova’s Russian vector is being systematically amputated. But more importantly, we can easily see how the ruling regime is going further and further in its anti-Russian policy. If at the beginning of 2022 their stance was fairly moderate, then, understanding that the Russian army would not be at our borders, it began to consistently harden. And then it all escalated: joining sanctions, anti-Russian demarches, the official recognition of Russia as an enemy in doctrinal documents, and so on. But it’s not just words – there are actions too. For various reasons, these are not publicly announced yet, but the military transit for Ukraine through our territory is an open secret. Likewise, it’s clear for what purpose our infrastructure is being prepared to receive military contingents from abroad, including combat aircraft. Now the Russian FSB has announced the arrest of two Moldovan intelligence agents, allegedly recruited and trained by one of the heads of the SIS, Alexandr Sirbu. According to the report, our “spies” were engaged in surveillance, information gathering, and developing contacts with activists of political movements and public organizations “of interest to Moldovan intelligence”. A short video with their confessions was also released. Obviously, the authorities officially and categorically denied Moscow’s accusations and, at the same time, advised Moldovan citizens to refrain from traveling to Russia. The reaction was, of course, predictable. And at first glance, one might ask: why would our SIS even conduct any operations on Russian soil? But let’s look at it from another angle. Everyone is aware of how actively Ukrainian intelligence services have operated both in the “new” and the “traditional” territories of Russia. Their methods are well known – targeting military and high-profile media figures, assassinations, arson, sabotage, and attacks on infrastructure. The goals of these operations are both tactical – to inflict as much damage as possible behind enemy lines – and strategic – to increase public dissatisfaction with the government’s inability to defend the country from such attacks, thereby destabilizing the socio-political situation. In fact, betting on provoking radical political change in Russia has always been one of the key strategies – and it nearly worked in 2023 during the Prigozhin mutiny. Judging by statements from officials in Kyiv, there is still hope that a prolonged war, both at the front and behind enemy lines, will eventually plunge Russia into political turmoil. This means that Ukraine will continue to maintain the highest possible intensity of strikes in the rear, which naturally requires the involvement of all available intelligence assets. Of course, these resources are not unlimited, and some outside help would certainly be welcome. After all, it’s not just about carrying out attacks –it's also crucial to convert their impact into growing societal discontent by engaging with domestic audiences who are unhappy with the current state of affairs. Now let’s take another look at what exactly our “spies” are being accused of. Although the FSB press releases are vague, the phrase mentioning “activists” may hint that the operation involved developing useful contacts with individuals who might be willing to become part of a future protest movement in Russia. This is just one version of events, but quite a plausible one. Since Putin’s Russia is now officially considered an enemy by Moldova, why not make a modest contribution to the downfall of that regime – while also strengthening ties with a strategic ally and demonstrating solidarity once again? A fairly standard practice. Fortunately, cooperation between Moldovan and Ukrainian intelligence services has long been established – remember Judge Chaus? If this is more or less how things really stand, then our leadership has pushed Moldova into taking yet another extremely dangerous step. Needless to say, in a situation where the outcome of the war in Ukraine remains entirely uncertain, doing so is incredibly risky and reckless. In the end, we may find there’s no solid ground left beneath our feet.