On the Brink of a Maritime Collapse: The Black Sea Is Losing Its Security and Future

The military actions between Russia and Ukraine, which until recently were perceived primarily as a land-based confrontation, are gradually shifting into the maritime domain. This creates a threat to international shipping and sharply increases the risk of economic disruption for all the Black Sea region countries

The recent attack on tankers in Turkish territorial waters has become particularly alarming. It is still unclear whether this was a local incident, or the beginning of a new phase of the war. But yesterday, Turkish President Recep Erdogan already stated that the war has reached a point where it clearly threatens the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. From Ankara – which has traditionally sought to keep the region stable – such strong statements are highly symbolic. They signal that the conflict is approaching critically important maritime routes through which millions of tons of cargo are transported. If attacks on commercial vessels – which, according to some estimates, belong to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” – indeed continue, Moscow will most likely reconsider its approach to the moratorium on naval operations. In theory, Russia could begin striking civilian ships headed to Ukrainian ports in order to completely paralyze Ukraine’s maritime transport. The consequences of such a scenario would be devastating – not only for Ukraine, but for the entire Black Sea region. After all, it functions as a single logistical system, on which not only the coastal states rely, but also continental regions. At the same time, another trend is emerging – Kyiv is clearly focused on gradually increasing its activity at sea, as it lacks the ability to demonstrate military successes on land. The use of unmanned surface vessels has become a central element of Ukraine’s new tactics. These drones allow strikes on enemy infrastructure and ships without deploying large naval groups, making them a convenient tool of pressure and adding further risks to the maritime environment. Under these conditions, it is quite expected that the number of attacks using such devices will grow, as they make it possible to inflict significant damage at minimal cost. But this also means that an increasing number of civilian vessels are being put at risk, since amid high-intensity hostilities they may be mistakenly identified as targets or intentionally attacked. The situation is rapidly deteriorating, as both sides are increasingly operating beyond their own territorial waters. If hostilities move into adjacent sectors, this will lead to a number of consequences that could effectively paralyze all trade in the Black Sea. First and foremost, insurance premiums for transiting its waters will rise sharply. For many companies, insurance costs may become so high that operating in this direction will lose economic sense. Against this backdrop, regular commercial routes will begin to decline and could eventually cease altogether, leaving the Black Sea effectively closed as a trade corridor. But the most alarming scenario is the risk that the “front line” may shift closer to the Danube Delta. The Danube Delta and its adjacent river waters are a direct extension of maritime logistics, and they serve as vital routes for many European states. If the Black Sea and the Danube approaches turn into a continuous theater of military operations, vessels may begin to be sunk indiscriminately – whether they belong to Romania, Ukraine, Moldova, or private operators from other countries. For Moldova, which has direct access to the Danube through the Port of Giurgiulesti, this would pose a far greater risk than just economic turmoil. It is hard to even imagine a scenario in which a vessel flying the Moldovan flag or owned by a Moldovan company comes under attack. In that case, the country could effectively be drawn into the conflict – a conflict that, despite all the political rhetoric, it is in fact trying to avoid at any cost. A situation of direct security threat would emerge, and Moldova would be forced to respond. It is quite possible that such consequences are, among other things, what Kyiv is aiming for, as it stirs up the Black Sea waters largely out of desperation. The economic consequences of a halt in maritime navigation in the Black Sea are difficult to overestimate. A decline in import volumes would primarily affect fuel, food, and industrial goods that are delivered to the region’s countries by sea. If the ability to move freely through traditional corridors is lost, routes will become longer and shipment volumes will decrease. This will inevitably impact the domestic markets of all states – from Bulgaria and Romania to Georgia and Moldova. Given the current dynamics, it is possible that within the next six months the Black Sea may turn into one of the world’s unstable hotspots, despite its strategic importance. Notably, the European Union has attempted to respond to these challenges by developing its own strategy for the Black Sea region in May of this year. The document includes a wide range of initiatives, from environmental protection to infrastructure development. Its adoption is quite logical, considering that the Black Sea serves as a key corridor for the EU to access the Caucasus and Central Asia, areas of “special significance” in light of efforts to achieve energy independence and diversify energy supplies. The only problem is that the European Union currently lacks the necessary military power to back up its geopolitical ambitions. At the same time, while the EU may somehow manage for now without the Black Sea, Moldova is extraordinarily dependent on the state of local waterways. More than half of the republic’s foreign trade passes through the Danube-Black Sea port infrastructure, part of which is handled by Ukraine and Romania. Any instability in the maritime area immediately turns into an economic risk. In addition to the purely economic consequences, there may also be political ones. Deteriorating trade conditions and rising prices will inevitably affect public sentiment, which is already tense. Increased external pressure, growing dependence on alternative transport corridors, and the necessity of new agreements with neighboring states will complicate the government’s work and require long-term trade and economic adaptation. Today, the Black Sea is effectively becoming a new point of instability, where military, economic, and political interests intersect. A single misstep could trigger a chain reaction capable of shifting the balance of power and trade in this strategic region. If no effective steps are taken to de-escalate tensions, it risks – even if only temporarily – losing its status as a trade corridor and turning into a zone of exclusively military confrontation. Moreover, this situation may push the Kremlin toward more decisive actions aimed at cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea coastline. And this, in turn, would become a critical challenge for Moldova and the stability of its current political system.