The Economist: War in Iran Could Cause the Biggest Oil Shock in Recent Years

Prices will rise sharply in the short term and may remain high for an indefinite period. In the summer of 2025, within hours of the attacks on Iran, the price of Brent crude jumped 7% to $74 a barrel – a reasonable jump, but not a huge one. The Economist argues that the campaign spared Iranian energy facilities, the American operation was short-lived, and the Iranian response was symbolic, writes unian.net, citing economist.com. But this time it’s different, as US President Donald Trump has promised that “intense and targeted bombing... will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective”. And Iran’s response is much more serious. Over the past 24 hours, it has launched missiles at Israel, its Arab neighbors and American bases in the region. “None of this will reassure traders. How severe the panic will be and how long it will last will depend on three factors,” the publication noted. The first, as journalists have noted, is what Iran will target in the Persian Gulf. Initially, its strikes only hit American military targets. Since then, they have also reached ports, airports, and other civilian infrastructure throughout the region. The publication argues that, faced with an existential threat, the remnants of Iran’s leadership may see dragging their Gulf neighbors into the crisis as one of the few ways to force the US back to the negotiating table. As analyst Carlos Bellorin said, several oil fields in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait are within range of Iranian missiles and drones. In addition, they are huge and very difficult to defend. However, as the publication writes, strikes on oil fields would be reckless. “An Iranian attack on Persian Gulf oil would provoke retaliatory strikes from neighbors who initially called for de-escalation,” the journalists pointed out.