Opinion: “Moldova Meets the Global Crisis at Its Weakest Point”

Semyon ALBU, RTA: For the fifth year now, Moldova has been living under the regime of Maia Sandu and PAS. During this time, it has concentrated all the levers of power in its hands. The government is composed entirely of figures originating from the ruling party. In parliament, its faction dominates, churning out the “necessary” legislation as if on command, without paying attention either to the opposition or to civil society. The judiciary and the prosecutor’s office are fully under control thanks to the vetting procedure. The media sphere has undergone a “cleansing”, and the only voices heard loudly are those ready to praise the ruling elite around the clock and whitewash its reputation amid numerous scandals. The Central Electoral Commission has also been captured and now serves the task of preserving the regime. As the past two years have proved, prospects for replacing the current authorities through democratic means simply do not exist. At first glance, the “yellows” seem to have everything: institutions subordinated to them, the ability to govern the state almost manually, and boundless political as well as extremely generous financial support from the West. With such resources, five years would have been enough to transform Moldova beyond recognition, truly turning it into the showcase of European integration that we have been hearing about since the early 2010s. The country could have become a solidly standing state, fully prepared to face any adversity or crisis. In fact, however, the opposite is happening. Our republic increasingly resembles a structure holding together on its last legs. And now that the United States and Israel have stirred up a very serious situation in the Middle East, the planet’s most important energy region, this fragile house of cards may collapse under the gusts of geopolitical winds. PAS bears a large share of the responsibility for the fact that Moldova is approaching this severe global crisis in an extremely weakened state. The first problems will undoubtedly arise in the energy sector. The “energy independence” project, which essentially means abandoning stable supplies of gas and electricity at fixed prices in favor of a model based on market purchases on exchanges, looks even more reckless in light of recent events. Gas prices alone nearly doubled in just a couple of days. The situation has stabilized somewhat since then, but prices remain 30-50 percent higher than before. Needless to say, this will inevitably affect consumers’ utility bills. Only a month ago the authorities, after a long delay but with great fanfare, reduced the gas tariff by two lei. Now it will apparently have to be raised by a far larger amount. The situation with electricity is even worse. Not so long ago we had stable supplies from the MoldGRES at relatively favorable prices. Today, even under the best conditions with no shortage we pay twice as much. Given the broader situation in the region’s energy system, which has been under severe stress due to the war in Ukraine, Moldova often has to resort to emergency purchases, where prices literally hit the limits. Naturally, all relevant information is hidden from public view, but the constantly rising tariff speaks for itself. Incidentally, suppliers have already requested another increase right now. And the worst may still be ahead. Under such conditions, can we speak of any development of industrial enterprises, whose products become unprofitable by default? Or of a comfortable life for the population, forced to devote an ever-larger share of its income to increasingly burdensome utility bills? The resilience of our citizens is now lower than ever, since under PAS the poverty rate has risen to record levels and now affects roughly one-third of the population. Before the “yellows” came to power, by contrast, poverty had been gradually declining. And the issue is not limited to tariffs alone. Take fuel, for example. When hostilities erupt in the world’s main oil-producing region, including strikes against extraction and refining infrastructure, there is little reason to expect good news. Yet our officials deliver reassuring speeches, stating that reserves exist: for some products they will last several days (!), for others a few weeks, and therefore there is no cause for concern. Meanwhile, the sharp increase in fuel prices that occurred almost immediately after the events in Iran and clearly had a speculative character looks far less encouraging than the minister’s statements. Needless to say, the rising cost of fuel, which will likely continue under the influence of market factors, will trigger a cascading increase in all other prices. That means higher inflation and further impoverishment of citizens. Farmers are also sounding the alarm. For them, the sharp rise in diesel fuel prices is virtually a matter of survival. The sector is already in a deplorable condition, suffering from climate-related disasters. The authorities provide only limited assistance to agricultural producers, speaking a great deal about support while doing little in practice. Subsidies are also insufficient. The relevant minister promises that everything will be done to lend farmers a helping hand, but such assurances inspire little confidence. In reality, the problem is that there are simply no large financial resources available to support farming households. This year’s budget has been drafted with a huge deficit – yet another record under PAS. Its emergence is directly linked to the disappointing results of the regime’s economic policy, which has delivered near-zero growth of the national economy over the past five years. At the same time, the authorities have accumulated a large stack of loans, which servicing now accounts for a significant share of public spending. The credit portfolio will continue to grow this year as well, which means no one intends to escape this spiral of stagnation –things will only get worse. As usual, the main hope lies with European partners. But their resources are limited either: leading EU countries are themselves suffering from disruptions in energy markets and are also forced to bear the financial burden of supporting Ukraine during the war. As we can see, many things in PAS-run Moldova are currently hanging by a thread. It is difficult to predict exactly where the rupture will occur first. But the adventurous policy of the ruling regime has brought the country to this state. People see this and “vote with their feet”, simply leaving their homeland in search of a better life. I fear that the outflow will only increase, further weakening the state’s capacity. Yet the authorities remain focused solely on European integration and seem unwilling to see or hear anything else. Even EU accession itself appears increasingly problematic: as we can see, key EU states oppose both the truncated membership model proposed by the European Commission to accelerate the entry of Ukraine and Moldova, and the idea of admitting new members without the diligent completion of all “homework”. Therefore, hiding from all these problems under the European umbrella in the near future seems unlikely.