Authorities Caught Off Guard by Yet Another Fuel Crisis

The sharp rise in oil product prices and empty gas stations amid government statements about “control over the situation” indicate the authorities’ unwillingness to effectively protect national economic interests in the face of changing external conditions

The country risks repeating the experience of spring 2022, when the fuel shock was one of the factors that plunged the economy into crisis and a protracted recession. Diesel fuel at a price of 20-30 lei per liter is a reality in the coming days, for which citizens are already psychologically preparing. At the same time, diesel accounts for about 70% of our total consumption of petroleum products. The transport industry and agriculture are directly dependent on its cost. Despite the daily increase in the maximum retail price set by ANRE and its growth of more than 20% compared to February, drivers today face a depressing picture – many gas stations simply have no fuel. This situation is particularly painful for the agricultural sector. The start of the sowing is accompanied by a virtual halt in wholesale fuel sales at current prices. In rare cases, importers offer agricultural producers diesel at a price of 28-29 lei per liter, which is about 40% more expensive than two weeks ago and 15% higher than the current price ceiling set by ANRE. In fact, even the fuel “black market” is not functioning today. Market participants do not understand how the situation will develop further. Recall that in the spring of 2022, which was a disaster for the Moldovan economy, diesel fuel was trading at 26-27 lei per liter. The authorities’ response to the crisis was restrained. On March 4, a 60-day state of high alert was declared in the energy sector, prohibiting the export (or, more precisely, re-export) of fuel. This measure was obviously intended to prevent the complete depletion of existing gasoline and diesel reserves. This concludes the list of measures taken by the government. The authorities are urging the population to remain calm and assure them that fuel reserves will last for about two weeks. However, such statements only cause additional anxiety. Motorists rushed to gas stations to buy up the remaining fuel, and farmers began refueling their agricultural machinery directly at gas stations. At the same time, fuel companies are not prepared to sacrifice their own profitability, especially without seeing any compensatory measures from the state. Energy Minister Dorin Junghietu, who had previously focused mainly on promoting “green energy”, was forced to acknowledge the inevitability of further price increases. According to him, the ministry intends to intervene only with mechanisms that will “make the price increase as gradual as possible and without immediate impact on consumers”. The government meeting added further uncertainty. Alexandru Munteanu, trying to reassure the population, said that “there is no cause for alarm” and that “the state has sufficient resources to keep the situation under control”. However, these assurances are at odds with the recognition of the country’s complete dependence on external factors and hopes for a quick end to the new major war in the Middle East. On March 9, the government held a meeting with importers of petroleum products. The ensuing public accusations of speculation against companies only confirmed fears about the lack of a coordinated action plan to overcome the crisis. The authorities are unwilling to discuss tax breaks for market participants, fearing an increase in the budget deficit. At the same time, the state has almost no other instruments of support. It is naive to expect private business to voluntarily bear social costs, as this means shifting the state’s responsibility onto the market. In recent years, the authorities have also failed to take any significant steps to improve the country’s energy security in terms of oil product supplies. They have not engaged in the construction of new fuel storage facilities or the restoration of existing infrastructure. Although, for example, there are such facilities in Cahul and Vulcanesti with access to road and rail logistics. Today, even if we assume that Romania will provide humanitarian aid in the form of fuel, there is simply nowhere to store it. And only now has everyone begun to remember the European Union’s requirements for strategic reserves to cover at least 90 days of consumption. At the same time, the structure of fuel supplies to Moldova has become almost entirely dependent on the Romanian market. For major players such as Rompetrol and Lukoil, our market is essentially just an extension of their business in Romania. The situation in Ukraine is exerting additional pressure. After the Kremenchug oil refinery was shut down, the neighboring country became approximately 85% dependent on imports of light petroleum products. Fuel supplies from Belarus have long been politically toxic, and the destruction of Russian oil facilities on the Black Sea and Caspian Sea coasts has become a major goal for Ukraine. In turn, Chisinau has always approved of Kyiv’s actions. As a result, Moldova found itself in an extremely vulnerable position. Accelerated integration into the Romanian energy space made us completely dependent on price dynamics and market problems on the other side of the Prut River. Today in Romania, diesel fuel costs about 34.5 lei per liter when converted to Moldovan currency – one of the highest prices in the region. Over the past five years, the price there has effectively doubled. Another negative factor is the suspension of operations at Romanian oil refineries. The country’s largest refinery, Petromidia, part of the Rompetrol group, was shut down for scheduled maintenance at the end of February, while efforts are currently underway to resume operations at Lukoil’s Petrotel refinery, which accounts for about 20% of Romania’s crude oil refining capacity; to this end, permission has already been requested from the United States. Romanian experts warn that if the crisis surrounding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz escalates, the price of diesel fuel could exceed 11.5 lei per liter in an optimistic scenario and even 16 lei in a pessimistic one. Converted to Moldovan currency, this amounts to 45 and 63 lei, respectively. At the same time, about 70% of the cost of fuel in Romania is made up of taxes – excise duties and VAT. In Moldova, this burden is lower but still significant, reaching approximately 50% of the final price. While Romanian authorities are considering the possibility of a temporary reduction in excise taxes, such measures are not even being discussed in Moldova. The most that is being discussed is a repeat of the 2022 practice in the form of a refund to farmers of the excise tax on fuel purchased between March 31 and May 31. However, this mechanism remains limited and bureaucratically complex. Its budget amounts to only 140 million lei, and farmers will not begin receiving payments until summer. At the same time, it is practically impossible today to predict what fuel prices will be in just a few weeks. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s economy grew by 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the fuel crisis could quickly reverse these positive trends. Rising diesel prices will inevitably lead to higher costs for transportation services, agricultural products, and logistics. This will create additional inflationary pressure on the economy. It demonstrates not so much the influence of external factors as the structural vulnerability of the state’s energy policy. The lack of strategic fuel reserves, critical dependence on a single supply market, and a limited set of crisis response tools make the national economy extremely sensitive to any fluctuations in external conditions. As a result, every new price shock on the global or regional fuel market automatically turns into a domestic crisis for Moldova. At the same time, the authorities continue to insist on the need to pursue a course of full integration with European markets and categorically refuse to even discuss a possible resumption of cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. Any arguments are used to justify this. Recently, Dorin Junghietu deemed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call to redirect energy supplies from Europe to other destinations the most convincing of these arguments. Needless to say, our minister will not mention the deliberate efforts by Brussels and Washington over the past 20 years to oust Russia from the European energy market. Officials like him were raised in the paradigm of geopolitical confrontation. It is not in their interest to consider the consequences of such a narrow-minded policy for Moldova and its citizens.