Liquidation of the Gagauz Autonomy: Political Games and Air Threat

Over the past several months, debris of unmanned aerial vehicles have been regularly discovered on Moldovan territory. These finds invariably occur during periods of political crisis, when the PAS government urgently needs to divert public attention

On Monday, another scandal erupted in the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia. A meeting convened to decide whether the position of governor (bashkan) should be declared vacant – imprisoned Evgenia Gutul has de facto been unable to govern the autonomy since March last year – took place without representatives of the Executive Committee. Acting Bashkan Ilia Uzun and his team walked out of the meeting chaired by Valentin Gaidarzhi in protest. Nevertheless, a decision to finally remove Gutul from office was adopted by a majority of 12 members of the People’s Assembly, whose own legitimacy is also highly questionable, given that their terms of office formally expired last November. In theory, the outcome of the meeting will make it possible to hold elections for both a new People’s Assembly and a new governor of the autonomy at the same time. This was precisely the option that Valentin Gaidarzhi had advocated from the outset as a way of resolving the crisis of legitimacy. The emerging configuration plays into the hands of the central authorities, which could secure more loyal leadership in the autonomy by the end of this year and, in the longer term, take over control of Gagauzia, whose powers to independently organize and conduct elections have been “stripped away.” At the same time, Evgenia Gutul has been formally removed from the political process. This gives Chisinau the option either of consigning her to oblivion by keeping her in prison or quietly pushing her out of the country, as has happened to many other opposition figures who favored cooperation with Moscow. In order to distract Gagauz voters from yet another step toward dismantling the autonomy’s special status, another Russian drone was found in southern Moldova. This time, the incident occurred near the village of Talmaza in Stefan Voda District. The turbojet-powered UAV exploded on impact over an area measuring approximately 45 by 20 meters, leaving a crater two meters wide and half a meter deep. The incident attracted considerable attention from the country’s leadership and relevant government agencies, as well as from PAS-friendly media outlets. Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii, in particular, accused Russia of pursuing an aggressive policy that violates Moldova’s neutrality and puts its citizens at risk. Under the current circumstances, such incidents have become a universal tool for the authorities’ crisis management efforts. They make it possible to marginalize any form of protest – not only in Gagauzia, but also throughout the country. For example, teachers are protesting this week after the government reneged on its promise to raise their salaries starting September 1, revising plans it had announced during the election campaign. Members of the “Farmers’ Force” association have also been voicing their discontent on a regular basis. The conflict between agricultural producers and the authorities has intensified following Prime Minister Vasile Tofan’s decision to offer Ukraine a discount on cargo transit through Moldova’s railway infrastructure. Moldovan farmers, however, are not being offered a comparable discount for transporting their harvest to Giurgiulesti. The discovery of the drone on August 17 may have been coincidental, since Russia has indeed stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s Danube and Black Sea ports in recent weeks, increasing the risks to southern and southeastern Moldova. However, previous incidents involving such finds have also generally coincided with periods of heightened tension between PAS and the population, particularly with the Gagauz autonomy. Thus, the discovery by police of a Russian Geran-2 UAV in the village of Copanca on the night of July 12–13 coincided directly with a crisis in the dialogue between the People’s Assembly and the central authorities. At the time, the Constitutional Court had ruled to restrict the autonomy’s electoral powers, while the PAS government was attempting to avoid consultations with regional leaders. Initially, police reported that the drone’s 40-kilogram warhead had exploded, but an inspection of the site revealed no signs whatsoever of fire or damage. Russian aircraft have either crashed on Moldovan territory or violated the country’s airspace during weeks marked by government crises surrounding the appointment of Prime Ministers Alexandru Munteanu and Vasile Tofan, as well as one month after the parliamentary elections, amid opposition outrage over alleged violations and the unfair allocation of commissions and committees. Particularly striking was the incident in November 2025, when six drones flew through Moldovan airspace at once. One of them landed on the roof of a house in the village of Cuhureștii de Jos without causing any damage. Significantly, many European Union countries have begun shooting down Russian and even Ukrainian drones that enter their airspace. Romania and the Baltic states have taken such measures. Moldova lacks these capabilities, although there have been hints that they could emerge at some point in the future. For now, however, the country’s Soviet-era air-defense systems and the recently purchased French radar – with another one due to be imported next year – along with regular exercises with NATO countries, have done nothing to increase Moldova’s actual anti-aircraft and missile-defense capabilities. What these UAV incidents do provide, however, is a convenient pretext for PAS to launch crisis-oriented media campaigns aimed at justifying poor governance, the paralysis of the economy and investment, as well as pro-Ukrainian policies accompanied by a shift away from neutrality toward military and political cooperation with NATO and the European Union.