Moldova in a Fog of Protests

A new political season is underway in the country, beginning with protests of different social groups amid PAS mismanagement, rising prices, and a growing budget deficit

The PAS regime is clearly unable to shoulder the burden of its campaign promises. The vote campaign – supported financially and politically by EU institutions – has concluded in general successfully for the ruling party: it has retained its parliamentary majority, and a second government, approved by the President’s Office, is already in place. Now is the time to demonstrate the ability to govern effectively, including ensuring a sound budget process and fostering economic growth, as well as fulfilling the commitments the regime has made to society. And this is where the government faces enormous difficulties – a rise in external debt to a level that is difficult to service, and a widening trade deficit, coupled with a deteriorating business climate and shrinking investment. The GDP growth forecast has been revised downward. Large groups of the population are responding to the government’s policies with protests. For example, yesterday in the center of the capital, teachers went on strike, dissatisfied with PAS’s refusal to honor its promise to raise salaries starting September 1. Prime Minister Vasile Tofan and Minister of Education Dan Perciun came out to meet the protesters, but the teachers refused to hear him out and booed him. The head of government, who had previously acknowledged the right of education workers to protest during a meeting of the executive branch, was unable to offer the protesters anything reassuring at the National Assembly Square. The government tried to buy off the striking teachers with a one-time bonus of 2,000–4,000 lei (depending on their field and length of service), to be paid in October. The government also adopted a new education program that includes a commitment to raise teachers’ salaries to a level above the national average by 2030. It remains to be seen how satisfied teachers will be with this “handout” from PAS, given the reports of planned spending on a military parade and the party’s funding of its activists through substantial salaries and government contracts. On the one hand, teachers have remained a loyal voter base for the government for a number of years (including for the Democratic Party in previous years). On the other hand, this loyalty was largely achieved through bureaucratic backstopping and specific promises to improve pay. If PAS loses the support of this social group – who largely implement the regime’s ideological agenda – problems will arise immediately, regardless of upcoming elections. The experience of neighboring Romania shows that protests by education workers can become prolonged, persistent, and effective, posing serious challenges for government policy. Today, Vasile Tofan’s cabinet faces new challenges in managing the crisis. One of the tasks is the broad-based meeting with agricultural producers, including the “Farmers’ Power” association, at which the prime minister was supposed to clarify the government’s position on granting Ukraine discounts on cargo transit via Moldova’s railway network. Meanwhile, logistics for local farmers are constantly deteriorating due to reduced access to the port in Giurgiulesti (caused by lower water levels on the Danube) and congestion at the port in Constanta. Moreover, no one has promised Moldovan farmers any discounts or other forms of assistance (such as help with fuel purchases or paying overdue VAT refunds). Maia Sandu stated that we must not miss the opportunity to help Ukraine, noting that other countries are providing even more assistance. Even EU funding remains blocked in non-election years. The government will certainly be unable to resolve these contradictions, and they will smolder, intensifying as the need to export the harvested crop grows and fuel prices rise. Meanwhile, the fuel prices may continue to rise, amid the developing fuel shortage in Romania. Romania may face restrictions on the use of its refining capacity. In Moldova, fuel shortages are already being reported at some 50 gas stations. For now, farmers have a supply of diesel, but its price is likely to continue rising tomorrow and will significantly affect the competitiveness of their products, as will the objectively more complicated logistics. If the government continues to do nothing, agricultural producers will become a constant source of social tension and a factor in the government’s falling approval ratings. Immediately afterward, ANRE announced an increase in residential gas rates. The regulator could approve the new rate as early as tomorrow – raising the rate to 20 lei per cubic meter (a 41% increase). Plans had previously been announced to raise electricity rates, with VAT applied to high consumption. Overall, the tax reform – whose sole purpose is to cover the existing budget deficit (contrary to the messages repeatedly put forward by the government about harmonization with the European Union) – will deal a massive blow to businesses and consumers. Once the public examines the government’s “ideas” in detail – even within the HoReCa sector, which traditionally votes for PAS – the government’s approval rating will decline. Another round of protests has been announced for this Friday. Olesea Stamate has called for a protest outside the ANRE office against the gas price hike. The rally is predictably set to draw a large crowd, as the regulator’s plans (read: PAS) affect the interests of many people. Large-scale protests are brewing in the country, and the regime is unable to distract the agitated population even with the now-routine news of yet another Russian drone being shot down or crashing. Today there were two such incidents; one even exploded near the Ukrainian-Moldovan border crossing. Protests challenging the PAS government’s hold on power are already becoming a regular occurrence. This is happening against the backdrop of a parliamentary opposition that remains disabled – whether because lawmakers have not yet returned from holiday or because everyone is waiting for consultations with two American diplomats who are expected to arrive in the coming weeks: the U.S. ambassador and the new head of the OSCE Mission. A wave of protest could sweep over the complacent PAS regime and its backers, once the opposition gets involved in the processes, while society and the regions realize the harmful and ill-conceived nature of the administrative reform (involving the merger and consolidation of districts and settlements) deliberately designed by the authorities for electoral purposes.