Independence Day with War Looming on the Horizon

For the country’s 35th anniversary of independence, the ruling regime sought to impress both the international community and the Moldovan public with its achievements in military development and its supposedly strong ties of friendship with neighboring countries and the West. In reality, however, it merely exposed the emptiness of meaning in contemporary Moldova under its leadership

Semyon ALBU, RTA: Moldova marked yet another anniversary with deeply mixed feelings. The farther we move from the moment when our statehood project was created, the more questions arise about it. And the main one is this: what have we actually achieved by becoming independent? Would the republic’s founding fathers have been satisfied if, back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, they had been shown what we would achieve after 35 years of independent development? Our political leaders, particularly those from the current “yellow” generation, are fond of criticizing Moldova’s Soviet past, describing the horrors of the “totalitarian regime” and the “yoke of occupation” under which the Moldovan people allegedly suffered. This poison is now being poured liberally into the pages of school textbooks as well, so that younger generations can be educated along the desired ideological lines. The problem, however, is that after three and a half decades, we have still failed even economically to surpass the benchmark set by the MSSR. And this is despite all the technological progress and gains in labor productivity. Of course, unlike many other post-Soviet republics, Moldova did not have the advantage of abundant natural resources to fall back on. However, we did have a compact territory that was relatively easy to govern, a hardworking population, a developed agricultural sector, a strong industrial base, and the scientific and academic infrastructure supporting it. Today, virtually all of this is gone. The population has nearly halved. It will soon be the case that more Moldovans are born in the diaspora than in their homeland. The combined share of industry and agriculture in GDP has fallen almost threefold. Even geographically, we have become smaller due to the separation of Transnistria. And as for science, there is hardly anything left to say. Moreover, the republic’s chronic problems have only intensified during PAS’ five years in power. This applies to the ongoing depopulation process, which shows no signs of stopping, the economic stagnation, the growing social divide, further fueled by the authorities’ actions, and much more. So, is there really any reason to celebrate anything at all, let alone with such pomp and fanfare? The ruling party has proven unable to provide even the classic formula of “bread and circuses” for yet another anniversary. Instead of “bread”, there are higher tariffs coupled with statements about reducing compensation for them, broken promises of higher teachers’ salaries, and a deficit-ridden budget from which the government has failed to scrape together even some modest benefit for the population, such as last year’s school assistance. Then again, this is not an election year, so there is no need to “buy off” voters. Well, as our “circus”, we were offered a pompous military parade costing millions of lei. The sum may not be particularly large in itself, but when money is lacking even for basic necessities, it inevitably raises questions about the expediency and, above all, the appropriateness of such spending. But the parade was very much needed by Maia Sandu and PAS, and by no means merely to please a certain segment of society, which, fortunately, remains quite small. Undoubtedly, the message itself was far more important. First, it was meant to show that the Moldovan army is no longer a dilapidated institution, but a modern and functional force capable of handling a wide range of tasks. Second, it was presented as yet another symbol of the break with the “Soviet occupation era”. That is why particular emphasis was placed on the fact that there would be no Soviet-era weapons or military equipment at the parade. And indeed, servicemen and police officers marched with American rifles and Czech assault rifles, while German-supplied Swiss armored personnel carriers, Israeli howitzers, American Humvees and other equipment rolled through the streets. The organizers also made sure to demonstrate that the National Army is keeping pace with the times, giving special attention to air-defense systems and drones. And, of course, the proverbial “cherry on top” was the participation of military contingents from partner countries, including Ukraine, Romania, Italy, Poland and others. Did the parade give people a sense of pride or security? Hardly. For a country like ours, the best form of protection is to adhere firmly to the neutrality enshrined in the Constitution and pursue a sensible foreign policy aimed at building mutually beneficial partnerships with all interested states. The patchwork of weapons acquired from here and there, paid for with billions of lei in budget funds and hundreds of millions of euros in donor assistance, is hardly likely to help us in a confrontation with Russia, which we have chosen to make our adversary. What these weapons can do, however, is make our short-sighted leaders genuinely believe in the military might of Moldova’s armed forces and prompt them to take some dangerous step, most likely with grim consequences for the country. On top of that, it is simply a shame to see such vast sums of money spent on things that could have been used in ways far more consistent with Moldova’s interests, for example, on capital investment to give the economy a much-needed boost. Instead, the money has been poured into equipment that, at best, will gather dust in warehouses and hangars until it is eventually decommissioned, and at worst... It is better not even to think about it. Another important message was about how well everything is going in our relations with our neighbors, Romania and Ukraine. The president of the former even attended the parade alongside Maia Sandu, while Vladimir Zelensky’s visit was followed by trilateral talks and a joint press conference. There was no shortage of grandstanding, and the picture presented to the public was indeed a rosy one. The only problem is that this picture is a long way removed from reality. Modern Moldova has no equal partnership with its neighbors. Romania has historically viewed us as “its own” territory, refusing even to sign a basic bilateral treaty or complete the demarcation of the border. The idea of unification is discussed openly and frequently, both by the political establishment in Bucharest and by our own leaders, and in practice it is already taking place: all the key strategic assets, including the gas transmission network and the country’s largest port, are gradually falling into Romanian hands. With Ukraine, the situation is even worse. My colleagues and I have repeatedly demonstrated with concrete examples just how unbalanced our relations are, and how Kyiv views them in purely utilitarian terms, as a “one-way street” serving Ukrainian interests alone. This is evident in everything from the Dniester issue and the EU integration process to the transit of Ukrainian goods and a whole host of other matters. That is why all the facades that the ruling party uses to frame our reality are intended to conceal the frightening loss of meaning that has overtaken our country in its fourth decade of independence. Our statesmen and institutions, beyond repeating mantras about the “European path”, “solidarity with Ukraine”, and “countering Russia’s hybrid attacks”, have nothing to say to their own population and are incapable of doing anything to construct, let alone realize, an attractive vision of the future. What they can do, however, is show us military hardware whose presence will have no positive impact whatsoever on the lives of ordinary citizens. What it does provide is a clear hint at the future our rulers are preparing for us. Given all the investment in the military sector, Moldova’s integration into the military-logistical framework of the Ukrainian conflict, and the joint production and testing of drones, the direction is more than clear. All that remains is to wait until we are pushed into issuing Russia an ultimatum over its troops in Transnistria, and then plunging into a military adventure. Ultimately, this is a scenario that our Western patrons have already rehearsed more than once.