Politico: A Perfect Political Storm Is Brewing in the EU

The EU is facing a perfect political storm, a convergence of unfavorable circumstances, after leaders failed to reach a consensus at the bloc’s latest summit, including on the €2 trillion budget. Politico reports that the summit, which leaders used to strengthen their positions and seek tactical advantages over rival camps, highlighted how increasingly difficult it is for Brussels to secure the necessary compromises. Diplomats and officials told the publication that pessimism was evident, with some warning that the European Union would face serious difficulties in the coming months. “Next year, things will get worse,” one senior European diplomat believes. If leaders fail to reach an agreement, already tense negotiations will spill over into 2027, when electoral campaigning is likely to exert even greater influence on the talks and governments may become increasingly reluctant to compromise. Brussels risks losing its stable alliances as the political futures of several of its most influential leaders remain uncertain. “There is no obvious leader in Europe right now,” another diplomat said. He noted that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “has a lot of power, but we have neither a Merkel [former German Chancellor Angela Merkel] nor a Mitterrand [former French President Francois Mitterrand].” A senior EU official did not rule out January as a favorable opportunity to approve the budget. According to Politico, this could be the last chance to reach an agreement before further political upheaval in Europe makes compromises even harder to secure. In September, the Financial Times reported that the leaders of Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Austria and Finland had threatened to withhold support for the next seven-year EU budget unless spending was cut by “hundreds of billions” of euros. These countries account for around 40% of the bloc’s budget contributions, the newspaper noted. They proposed allocating more funding to defense and business support while cutting expenditure on agriculture and less prosperous regions. At the same time, 17 countries opposed cuts to agricultural spending and regional support, Politico reported in October. In 2025, the European Commission proposed a budget of nearly €2 trillion for the 2028-2034 period. As Politico noted, the proposal envisages redirecting hundreds of billions of euros away from agriculture and regional support towards new priorities, including defense and improving competitiveness.