Stefan Schennach: “The Transdniestrian issue will be solved in 5 years”. What does the confidence of the PACE representative mean?

Comment by RTA Geopolitical discussion in Europe often does not have too much specifics, mostly half-hints and coming from high offices echoes of continuous positional bargaining. But sometimes there are also non-trivial examples of frankness. We hasten to share that Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty interview with the former chairman of the PACE Committee on Frozen Conflict, Stefan Schennach. The correspondent asked the European representative about the Transdniestrian settlement (it is worth recalling that at the January meeting of the same PACE Committee there were leaders of unrecognized Transdniestria and officials of the Republic of Moldova, in general, representatives of the conflicting camps). Looking ahead we can tell that Mr. Schennach was frank, and his thoughts gave us some own ideas. Schennach, like he knows what he is talking about and has already accurately self-confidently set the record straight on the key aspects of relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol, looks into the future and even depicts a future settlement model. This is the first thing that catches your eye: the PACE representative turns out to have answers to all those questions that neither Chisinau, nor Tiraspol, nor Moscow can answer – because no consensus is yet for them. Key issues for the settlement are the status of Transdniestria, situation with the Russian military units in Moldova, border control, and the general issue of geopolitics – who will possess the region. Schennach had an unambiguous answer to all four questions, he even set a specific time frame. First. The status of Transdniestria – South Tyrol in Italy, in fact, a fairly low level of autonomy, which does not allow for an independent policy. Second. Russian troops should be withdrawn as a tool and mechanism, and demilitarized former soldiers can stay in the Transdniestrian region if they have not arrived in the last ten years. Third. The borders between Transdniestria and Ukraine should be controlled jointly by Moldovan, Ukrainian and Transdniestrian representatives. In principle, here Schennach did not invent anything new, total joint control is already being implemented on the Transdniestrian segment of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border at the expense of the EU. Finally, the fourth. In geopolitical terms, according to Schennach, ‘PMR’ is no longer important for Russia, Moscow wants to quit the game because it cannot support the region economically. The PACE representative, in fact, is considering this region in the near future as a sphere of exclusive, monopolistic influence of Europe. The position of Schennach is quite indicative while one way or another he involved in the discussions on Transdniestria, but not burdened by a formal politesse of direct participants in the negotiations on the Transdniestrian settlement. A few more years ago all these statements seemed ambitious and provoked a tough confrontation between Russia and the EU. Today, to tell the truth, they look like a sufficiently adequate statement of objective reality. At the request of the Republic of Moldova, Russian troops are being shown the door from Transdniestria already at the UN level – we refer to the recent General Assembly resolution, and Russian diplomacy very passively calls everything that happens “not contributing to the declared desire to improve relations”. In the end, the chain is as strong as its weakest link: the European Union through its representative is not just drawing, but already hanging on the wall a picture of a close victory, not even talking about strategy, but about current achievements in reformatting the status quo in Moldova. It is not surprising that Stefan Schennach ultimately makes a realistic prediction about settlement of the Transdniestrian problem – 5 years – and kindly recommends Russia not to interfere with implementation of such bold and definite plans of the West. Let’s see whether it is worth waiting for some Moscow’s response to the processes taking place today around Moldova and Transdniestria, not in words but in deeds. RTA, 2018