Moldova has a choice: for whom the political bell tolls?

The forthcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova increase the political situation entropy in the country every day. The example is cancellation of the election results of the Chisinau mayor, where the representative of the pro-European opposition, Andrei Nastase, won by a small margin. This event seems to have become quite unexpected for European and American partners of Moldova, which have been making many years of systematic efforts to keep the country in the sphere of its influence. Having seen in this precedent an obvious threat to its far-reaching plans, Washington and Brussels publicly and unambiguously condemned the decision of the Moldovan judicial branch, promising investigation in this situation with the ensuing consequences. The U.S. Department of State stated that “non-transparent decision to uphold the invalidation of Chisinau’s June 3 mayoral elections represents a threat to Moldovan democracy”. The European Parliament also severely criticized the Moldovan authorities and adopted a special resolution expressing grave concern “about further deterioration of democratic standards in Moldova”. The decision of the Moldovan courts in the document of the European MEPs is characterized as politically influenced and driven, and is called as “an example of state capture”. On July 5, the European Parliament adopted a resolution demanding the European Commission to suspend allocation of macro-financial assistance to Moldova in connection with the invalidation of the election results in Chisinau. This stance of the West is causing a rather tangible image impact on the current Moldovan government, which has been in the hands of the Democratic Party (PDM) and its chairman Vlad Plahotniuc for a long time. In 2016, the Democrats became the core of the current Euro-coalition in the parliament, respectively, they control the present-day government. At the same time, by promoting ‘his people’ to key positions in the country, the PDM leader, according to political analysts and experts, has secured influence over the prosecutor’s office, law enforcement agencies, the judiciary and the overwhelming majority of local administrations. Acting in such conditions and receiving every time new challenges, Moldova’s international development partners made an unambiguous conclusion that the court’s decision to invalidate the election results in Chisinau could not be made without involvement of Vlad Plahotniuc. Meanwhile, even before the electoral scandal, the leader of the Democrats stated that he was satisfied with the results of the voting in the Moldovan capital, since, as he said, “the voter has confirmed that Moldova remains a European country”. Such a statement by the ‘coordinator’ of the ruling alliance looks deliberative and unnatural. Indeed, there are a lot of oddities, because the mayor of the Moldovan capital would be the political opponent of the Democratic Party and Vlad Plahotniuc personally. The only purpose of such a declaration is to try to get out beforehand, but this is just the case when the information false start only increased suspicions. As you know, Andrei Nastase, who heads the Dignity and Truth Platform Party has long been in opposition to the ruling Euro-coalition, accusing it of corruption and self-surrender to the chairman of the PDM. Together with the party of Action and Solidarity, headed by Maia Sandu, and the Liberal Democratic Party Nastase requires a change of political elite, which, in his opinion, discredited itself in the eyes of the European Union. It is obvious that Nastase’s arrival in the Chisinau administration would mean a weakening control of the Democratic Party over the Moldovan capital. On the eve of the parliamentary elections, Democrats could lose the opportunity to use the powerful administrative resource of Chisinau to influence the results of the voting. In addition, Nastase, and through him the pro-European opposition, on the contrary, would receive a powerful additional tool for self-actualization and mobilization of their supporters. Nevertheless, many political experts were convinced that the chairman of the Democratic Party would not risk making sudden movements that would lead to deterioration of relations with the US and the EU, whose support he seeks to secure. Therefore, invalidation of the election results of the Chisinau mayor was as a bolt from the blue. It can be assumed that the situation in the country pushes the ‘coordinator’ to the scenario of survival, when he has to deliver powerful preemptive attacks (albeit very sensitive and fraught with a painful response), raising the bids in bargaining with Western partners, in order to retain his strategic positions within the country for the future. Perhaps, this is a reason for the desire not to allow at all costs the pro-European opposition to intensify before the main battle for power. There has been a public request for a change of elites for a long time in Moldova. Many ‘versions’ of parliamentary alliances did not live up to the hopes of the pro-European electorate. The authorities have not demonstrated success in their fight against corruption, retouche or rather imitate the ‘theft of the century’ trial, failed to boast of sustainable economic growth and positive social reforms. Moldova continues to be the poorest country in Europe with a depressed population, half split by geopolitical views (some for integration with Russia, others with the EU, some for unification with Romania, others for preservation of the Moldovan state). Despite the Association Agreement with the EU, in the eyes of Western partners Moldova has turned from a “success story” into a “state capture” with corruption and oligarchs. Washington and Brussels, which find it very important to maintain their influence on the decision-making process in the country, understand that it is necessary not only to take control of the request for the change of elites, but also to offer a new generation of promising managers. However, in the context of regional rivalry with Russia, the West does not refuse active cooperation with those forces who concentrate the real power in the country in their hands. In recent years, the US and the EU have simply ignored any form of public discontent, including protests against the domination of the Democratic Party, as was the case in other countries with ‘orange’ scenarios. Moreover, in January 2016, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland announced the US government support of Pavel Filip, thus ensuring strengthening of the PDM position. Vlad Plahotniuc, who on the one hand demonstrates political loyalty to the West and on the other hand actively exploits the concept of the ‘Russian threat’ and contrasts himself with the Moldovan socialists, calling them conductors of Moscow’s will, has also become accustomed to such comfortable conditions. Preparing for the parliamentary elections in the autumn of 2018, the ruling Democratic Party launched a real anti-Russian campaign, masking it with the protection of national interests. Last year, the country’s parliament adopted a declaration on the need to withdraw Russian peacekeepers from Pridnestrovie. Prior to that, the Constitutional Court of Moldova equated the Russian military in the region to the occupation forces. Then Moldova put the issue of the withdrawal of the Operational Group of Russian Troops on agenda in the UN General Assembly. As a supplement, the Moldovan authorities, in the guise of fighting Russian propaganda, restricted broadcasting of Russian media in the country and increased discrimination of the Russian language, denying the status of interethnic communication language as prescribed by the Moldovan constitution. Moreover, Chisinau strengthens cooperation with NATO in the military sphere for the security reason and protection from an external threat, which means to be Russia. It is noteworthy that the relations between Moscow and Chisinau have become unprecedentedly bad over the past two years. Thus, the Moldovan authorities demonstrate that their actions are completely in line with the containment policy pursued by Washington and Brussels towards Russia. Chisinau seeks to maintain the image of an indispensable ally of the West in the region, in order to get carte blanche for domestic actions on a wave of geopolitical confrontation. At the same time, the Moldovan authorities do not miss the opportunity to stress that only a stable Euro-coalition will be able to resist the dangerous political influence of the Socialist party that advocate normalization of relations with Russia. Nevertheless, the democrats easily enjoy the socialists’ help when it comes to strengthening of their power in the country. Thus, last year two seemingly opposing parties jointly conducted an electoral system reform through the parliament. Most international experts agree that the main beneficiaries are the democrats, who, thanks to the transition to a mixed system, can count on maintaining their positions in the Moldovan parliament on the upcoming elections. Now the supporters of the Democratic Party can run in a straight line as independent candidates in single-mandate constituencies, not advertising until a certain time their preferences and connections with the ‘coordinator’ who has the highest anti-rating. Such tactics will be even more effective if an administrative resource is involved. As already mentioned, the Democratic Party controls most of the local administrations. Thus, the democrats managed to rebuild the electoral system in advance, ignoring objections of the CE Venice Commission, the European Union and the United States. According to Western experts, the new system “will disadvantage non-parliamentary parties, as well as contribute to corruption in the election campaign.” Ultimately, using geopolitical context and maneuvering between various political forces inside the country, the PDM strengthens its domination. Cooperating with the Democratic Party that is often unpredictable and leading its own game, Washington and Brussels, at the same time, actively support an alternative pro-Western political force led by Andrei Nastase and Maia Sandu. This is evidenced by numerous consultations of these politicians with officials from the US and the EU. Their complaints about the actions of the authorities ushered in the recent meeting of the European Parliament on the situation in Moldova. The electoral cycles of recent years have demonstrated that, in contrast to the Democratic Party, these political leaders enjoy strong support from voters. In 2016, in the second round of the presidential election, Maia Sandu scored 47.89% of the vote, losing only three percent to the socialist Igor Dodon. This year, in the election of the mayor of Chisinau, Andrei Nastase won the support of 52.08% of voters from the Moldovan capital. Washington and Brussels hope to gather under the banners of pro-European oppositionists a pro-European electorate who is unhappy with corruption and the situation in the country. That is why Sandu and Nastase publicly deny any possibility of forming a coalition with democrats after the end of the parliamentary electoral cycle. However, according to the predictions of some experts, opposition pro-Europeans will be able to collect only 30% of the vote in the elections. The Democratic Party will be able to get another approximately the same amount due to the ‘independent’ single-mandate. In this case, one predicts 40-45% of the vote for the Socialist Party (PSRM). The West understands that it is possible to resist the influence of socialists by combining opposition pro-Europeans and the democrats that are dominant today under a loud plausible pretext, for example, ‘for the sake of saving Moldova,’ which is equivalent to the thesis ‘far from the Moscow’s influence’. However, this can be done only on one condition – public neutralization of politically toxic and odious figure – Vlad Plahotniuc. Signals that the ‘coordinator’ needs to leave regularly come from the West. In April, the American Freedom House published a report Nations in Transit, which reads that in 2018 Moldova retains the status of a partially free nation with a hybrid regime and the highest risk of slipping towards authoritarianism. The report says that the lack of real reforms and adoption of contradictory laws led to an increase in EU mistrust and postponement of the financial assistance to Moldova. Another research published on the Jamestown Foundation website says that the criminal tandem of Plahotniuc is embodiment of off-scale corruption that gets the EU leaders more and more disappointed in Moldova. It appears that the situation with the recent judicial invalidation of the legitimate elections of the Chisinau mayor may not develop exactly according to the scenario that was prepared by the acting Moldovan authorities. After a certain time it is already possible to talk about clear signals showing that the Western partners are speeding up the process of cutting V. Plahotniuc’s services in promoting the idea of “European choice”. It seems that only after such a headline-making demarche of the Moldovan authorities Brussels and Washington finally realized the danger of further support of the ‘European-faced’ political Moldovan elite controlled from the shadow, which crossed the red line, casting doubt on the results of voting for a promising democratic candidate. Non-recognition of the election results with the use of ‘pocket justice’ is a continuation of the usurpation of power in the country by the Democratic Party headed by an odious oligarch. After this, the question of whether the results of the forthcoming parliamentary elections will be the next victim of local ‘justice’, if they will not suit someone, becomes more burning than ever before for Western partners. International partners seem to realize that now it is the time to react to the unprecedented actions of the Moldovan authorities profaning the ‘European choice’ and showing the true content of ‘legal democratic values’. Otherwise, the situation according to someone else’s scenario this autumn may have the most negative consequences for the Western plans for the development of European Moldova. It is possible that the escalation will give impetus to the negotiations of the development partners of the Republic of Moldova with the democrats’ leader on the strategy of his ‘soft’ departure from the Moldovan policy with obvious guarantees of future prosperity. In this context, the electoral scandal in Chisinau can be interpreted as a political maneuver by Vlad Plahotniuc with a view to demonstrating strength. It is telling that after critical statements of European officials and US representatives to the Moldovan authorities, significant signals to Moscow followed from Chisinau. The Foreign Minister of Moldova, Tudor Ulianovschi, recently spoke in favor of normalizing relations and establishing a permanent dialogue with Russia. At the same time, Vlad Plahotniuc made a personal statement in which he criticized the resolution of the European Parliament accusing the European MPs of political pressure so that the Action and Solidarity Party and the Dignity and Truth Platform Party receive an electoral advantage in the next election. A counter-attack by the leader of the Democratic Party can mean that the ‘coordinator’ goes all-in. He clearly demonstrates that he completely controls the power and does not intend to give it up, and the West’s need for its services will continue in the post-election period. Logic suggests that soon we are likely to see the response steps of Brussels and Washington. However, in any case, every day the sound of the political bell in Moldova is getting louder and clearer, and no one has any doubts for whom it tolls today.