Who Will Be to Blame for Destabilizing the Situation in the Region and Where the Golden National Thousand Hides

Oleg OCHERETNYUK, political and economic expert / Specially for RTA About why there are periodic economic, political and social crises, why people are divided by geopolitical preferences, and the structure of political forces is a poorly organized second-rate business. Parliamentary elections: who needs them? Moldova has entered the electoral campaign. During the current parliamentary term, the opposition has not been able to holdpre-term parliamentary elections, although it was declared to be its main task. Pre-term parliamentary elections were promised to the electorate both by the current President, and by parliamentary and non-parliamentary opposition parties. Both large-scale and long-running protest actions were held to hold pre-term parliamentary elections. But since pre-term elections did not happen, did the opposition really need it? Most importantly is to understand what could the opposition do with the power suddenly given to it? Is it ready to take over and solve numerous, large-scale and local tasks? Do opponents of the current government have realistic plans and resources for their implementation? Moreover,fundamentally important tasksfor modern Moldova are not so few. This is a stable economic development with dynamics and quality totally different from the current ones, creation of a new financial model that will make available the capital for national producers, minimize the labor migration of Moldovan specialists and “repatriate” the already departed labor migrants...On the political level, the fundamental goals remain to be stabilization of social and political tensions, the unification of a nation that is polar divided for numerous reasons. Of course, there is a goal of at least creating the conditions for the final settlement of the Transdniestrian issue. Do the opposition have recipes and resources to address these cornerstone problems of the Moldovan state? Parliamentary elections: Who’s Next? Imagine that the pre-term parliamentary elections were held, the opposition (by some miracle) won. Let us also assume that the “new government”had firmly resolved to overcome the problems raised above. Will it get managerial, labor and plainly financial resources for this? According to elementary calculations, in order for the system to function consistently and efficiently, with a change in the political configuration of the government, it is necessary to have, roughly speaking, a “golden national thousand” of professional managers who are necessarily loyal to the ideology of the ruling majority. Otherwise, there are options for explicit and implicit sabotage of even the most correct program. Is it possible in the current Moldova to have a technocratic coalition government united by common ideas that prevail over political preferences? Hardly. Is there such a resource in the opposition? Do we know those few dozen people who will become ministers and key managers and form a fundamentally new elite of public managers? The answer is no. Let’s omit the issues of political loyalty: will there be a necessary number of professionals for a qualitative leap in the development of the country? A critical part of skilled workers and minds left Moldova, and today no single political force considered has a real plan to solve the personnel issue or it is not able to offer experts dispersed around the world the idea that would encourage them to return to their homeland. Financial resources are another point. With the current state of the political system, foreign funding has become difficult even for the current authorities, and national entrepreneurs have less access to it. In this situation, it is not only difficult to imagine what financial sources are available to the opposition, but whether it will be able to offer a way to overcome the crisis in the economy. About the real potential and activities of political parties We will be impersonal– the question of worthiness as a political force can be addressed not only to the opposition, but also to the ruling majority. The power, based on is the Democratic Party, had plenty of time to signify real prospects for the people. The authorities have the full tools of the administrative resource, the parliamentary majority. The government changed the structure and leadership. Has the quality of the power elite changed over the years?The question is even simpler: will the pro-European majority hold on to power if we “isolate” the actual leader from it? With a probability of 99% they will not! It turns out that even the experienced leader of the Democratic Party, whom the supporters characterize as a talented manager, could not create a system – it was the system, and not the pyramid – where all the key decisions “come down” from one person. The more is further. In Moldova, there are no political parties that could be proud of a well-organized structure: either there are not enough resources, or there is no clear ideology, or the purpose of the activity corresponds little to the real representation of the interests of the population. So it turns out that political parties have already come to power or are fighting for it, which have not been able to properly organize and conduct their activities. They could not gather the necessary human resources in their fold, could not build work on the principles of democracy, in most cases, recalling the “apparatus” of their leader and nothing more. It is clear that the programs and plans of such political forces will not withstand any criticism in their detailed professional analysis: they are not based on tools, resources, timing and reality, but populism and slogans aimed at the faceless mass of the electorate. However, the electorate deserves a particular discussion. Thanks to the deep penetration of social networks into the politics, it is easy to discern in the electorate the widespread and massive economic and political illiteracy, and along with it the illiteracy of even people with de jure “higher education”. It is also important to take into account that part of the society that can be attributed to its literate part does not participate in political life in principle and can be understood. The arguments of such people are based on idea that the politics is discredited by the politicians themselves and their militant part of the activists. Another important part of the electorate – labor emigrants– in most is struck out of political and electoral life. By and large, there is no civil society in Moldova. Here, along with other important factors, the reason is the disunity of the society. Paradoxically, some self-proclaimed civil society activists often turn away healthy forces from participating in its formation. Regional Gordian knot in the form of the Transdniestrian issue Not a single, even the most superficial analysis of the political situation today, will be complete without considering the Transdniestrian issue. And this question has been in the air for so many years, that already 2 young generations have grownup in the unrecognized PMR. These generations no longer know what the “integrated Moldova” is in the political, economic and constitutional-territorial context. These generations do not even see the problem. They freely cross the “border”, freely live and study, for example, in Chisinau. Today, they almost do not experience problems with the use of the Russian language, although the current government is already creating this problem artificially. Only in the general context of the article it is worth noting that the territory of Transdniestria is in fact excluded from the electoral process. And although some politicians, including the current President, expressed concern, but they were not able to include them in the election system. Ex-Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova ValeriuPleșca answered the related question. He noted that the participation of our citizens residing in the PMR in the elections can be fruitful only with the direct organization of an “operation” by the forces concerned. V. Pleșca said that an example of such interest is the election of the President of the Republic of Moldova. And with regard to free expression of will, the ex-minister continued, “it is unlikely because of the weak activity, motivation and ignorance of the political process in Moldova and the lack of admission of the pro-Moldovan politicians in the PMR”. The conclusion is simple – not a single political force intends to seriously engage in the “reintegration” of the country. We are talking here primarily about creating fundamental conditions for the convergence of the population from the banks of the Dniester – and no one is engagedin this, apparently. It turns out that the existing society of Transdniestria, in no way connected with the Moldovan political system, in principle suits everyone. The system and terms of parliamentary elections Many said that, at least, a change in the electoral system from proportional to mixed is a controversial and untimelyissue. In my opinion, the issue is controversial because there is no consensus in the society on this issue. It is untimely because in the absence of a sufficient degree of political literacyin the electoratemasses. It is also important that there is no certainty that deputies for single-seat district will not be corrupted by factions of parties to create a parliamentary majority.The famous Moldovan statesman, who was both an ambassador and minister, Doctor of Historical Sciences Boris Gamurari, expressed his concerns to me. He said that the setting the election date for February 24, 2019 made a great deal of confusion. Mr. Gamurari stressed that there will be a fight for the electorate, that the electorate will be forced, completely bribed and trapped, as it was already. The ex-minister notes that there is a possibility of government interference in the work of the CEC, and the use of administrative resources by the ruling alliance, and the schemes with early voting, and manipulation of unequal diaspora opportunities in different countries, and the dominance of a single party...“All of this can contribute to gross violations during the parliamentary election. Given the “rich legal experience”, the results of the vote may surprise not only Moldova, as it has already happened.” Maybe the postponement of the elections for 2019 is an attempt to “get well prepared”, to rehearse all the “practices of deception”? Parliamentary elections and regional stability A split society, a low standard of living, a lack of confidence in a prosperous future, an established government, a constantly outraged opposition...These and other factors make us think that whatever the election results are, there is a high probability of destabilization of the situation in the region. Moreover, no one offers recipes for qualitative renewal of all spheres of life in the country. The Moldovan political class can prevent the impending destabilization under the sole condition – with a large consolidation of political parties, non-governmental organizations and civil society. Only if it can be done on any of the flanks of the political front – the minority will have to obey. But there is no prospect of broad consolidation either on the right or on the left. So far, there are only “islands” of DPM, PAS-DA-PLD, the PSRM, the NP and a few possible smaller islets. Will there be influence on building bridges between different islands from outside, from Washington, Brussels, Bucharest, Moscow? And here I do not even see any hints. Strong Moldova is not needed for anyone, except for the Moldovans themselves, which are still apart. It is for the masses to decide, and the last hope is only for the “collective mind”– all that’s left is to have it.