Ukraine: Wavering at the Dead End of Geopolitics

Since the end of 2013, Ukraine has been a stable supplier of the ‘conflict’ agenda to European, Russian and world media. First, the Euromaidan, then the Crimea’s expropriation by Russia, then the protracted armed conflict in the Donbas, the downed Boeing, terrorist attacks, murders of journalists. And sanctions, sanctions, sanctions: between Moscow and Kyiv, between Moscow and Brussels, between Moscow and Washington – they have become entangled so much that recalling the picture of relations in Europe ‘before Ukraine’ is already quite difficult. Five years after the Ukrainian crisis arose, still very uncertain, but positive changes have occurred. Both Moscow and European capitals are increasingly calling for a way out of the current impasse and to stop the senseless confrontation around Ukraine. Atthesametime, somethingsremainunchanged.For example, Russian TV shows still stigmatizeUkraine for a ‘coup d’état’ and predict early collapse of the “Kyiv regime”. Kyiv in response purposefully breaks another ties with Russia, from economic to infrastructure, which, obviously, affects kindred and simply inter-human relationships. Just the other day, on August 6, the Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure VolodymyrOmelyan said that he is initiating termination of the railway communication between Ukraine and the Russian Federation at an interministeriallevel. A common paradox of the Ukrainian crisis is that last year the most profitable for the domestic railway was the Russian direction, in particular the Kyiv-Moscow train.As DW quotes its source in Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways), this route brought the company more than 154 million hryvnia (about 5 million euros). No wonder sinceregular flights between the countries stopped back in 2015 (againupon an initiative ofKyiv) and those wishing to visit Russia and return did not becomeless. In the already mentioned federal Russian media they will necessarily say that the Ukrainian leadership “shoots itself in the foot” again and remembers the usual saying about the grandmother and frozen ears offjust to spite Grandma.Not at all wishing to support this propaganda, I have to admit that it is really so. Kyiv has been chopping down any ties with Moscow with unfailing regularity for several years, turning a blind eye to the interests of Ukrainian citizens, and to economic expediency. This is despite the fact that one cannot escape from geography and historical destiny, especially in the 21st century. For example, according to the Ukrainian Fiscal Service, Kyiv imported Russian coal for $ 1.1 billion in seven months of 2018. This is 62% of the country’s total imports of anthracite.It should be recalled that even last year the country’s energy sector was on the verge of collapse precisely because of a shortage of coal, which means that solid fuel remains a strategic resource for Ukraine. The question arises: why today when the dialogue on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis has already reached the level of the presidents of Russia and the United States, and Europe increasingly speaks of the need for a ‘thaw’ in relations with Moscow, Kyiv is still undertaking an endless series of attempts to dissociate itself from Russia at any cost?If we look at the international context, the first reason is that Ukraine has gradually, but purposefully and confidently led itself into a geopolitical impasse. Today the current Kyiv leadership cannot get out of it because of its own political nature. The way out of the impasse is always behind one’s back, which means that it will require recognition of a certain fallacy of the chosen policy and a retreat on many significant issues.Such a situation, especially in the lead-up to the presidential election in March 2019, is fraught with inevitable reputational and other costs for the ruling elite. This increases the risk of strengthening the opposition political forces with resulting consequences. The experience of 2004-2014 shows us how it happens in Ukraine. Therefore, paradoxically, but such irrational actions of Kyiv today follow a very specific political logic. The constant conflict discourse, image of the external enemy in the form of a “Russian threat”, the degree of social tension that has been exacerbated to the extreme in connection with the need for permanent mobilization of the population against this danger are the components of that politico-ideological project that enables the post-revolutionary leadership of the country to be at the helm. Do not you be misguided to think that the Ukrainian public is happy about the carousel of instability and completely trusts the current government, not at all. Simply, Russia has so far failed to take convincing real steps to refute the imposed image of the enemy. Cutting ties with the Russian Federation by such absurd methods as refusal to maintain air and railway communication is a continuation of Kyiv’s stagnant approaches that will cause obvious logistical and other problems for the population. However, based on the Kyiv’slogic, this reason is intended to become another catalyst, which increases the negative attitude, irritation and resentments of the Ukrainian people to Russia. The second reason why Kyiv diligently mend the fire of the conflict with Moscow is very tragic for the future of Ukraine as a state. After the military conflict in the Donbas was localized, the Western partners noticeably cooled to Ukraine. The countrysuccessfully completed the mission of the catalyst of the anti-Russian campaign in Europe and the USA and no other tasks were assigned to it, in the large, either in Brussels or in Washington. Kyiv today continues to use a fairly devalued, but still inertia-working way of holding the attention to itself from international partners, constantly recalling about Ukraine as an outpost for containing Moscow’s ‘expansion’. The hostage of the situation, as usual, is the Ukrainian people. The infrastructure and trade ties that Kyiv destroys so persistently in the east direction cannot be built in one day, and the pace of rapprochement with Europe is clearly unable to replenish the economic losses from the breach of relations with Russia.To patch the holes in the social sector, Ukraine will have to bargain again and again for financial assistance from the West, oversell itself through new anti-Russian sanctions and to meettougher requirements of donors. But elections are coming, and therefore such a method is the only possible way to preserve power for ruling elites. There is no way out of this impasse: there is no simple recipe to remedy the current situation. Can the Ukrainian people change something for the better in their countryin an atmosphere of constant tension, in the range of conflicts, against real and imaginary threats, in conditions of a steadily declining standard of living, mass fatigue, growing apathy and distrust of policies? Time will tell. In addition, an obligatory external condition for the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is establishment of a more or less stable balance of opposing forces – the US, EU and Russia, with obvious mutual compromises. So, the first progress has already begun in this direction. However, only the ‘reset’ of the ruling elites and formation of a new political system within Ukraine itself will allow to fully push external partners to such a consensus: turning from a dead end, so to speak.