Gas Attack. Topic of Blue Fuel Supply to Moldova Became Weapon in the Political Struggle

On August 19, in an interview with one of the Moldovan TV channels, Minister of Economy and Infrastructure of the Republic of Moldova Chiril Gaburici said that Moldova did not plan to conclude a new gas supply contract with Russian Gazprom. The next day, the words of the Moldovan official were widely disseminated in local and regional media, with special attention to them in Russia, where some media started talking about the loss of Moldovan gas market by Gazprom. The sensation, however, proved to be incomplete – in the same interview Gaburici explained that future negotiations with the Russian corporation are possible only after commissioning of the yet unbuilt branch of the Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline, which should complete the process of unifying the gas transmission systems of Romania and Moldova. The official meant that if there is an alternative source of supply, bargaining over the price of future gas exports from Russia will be more fair and competitive. The next day the press service of the Moldovan Ministry of Economy interpreted the words of its head something like this, explaining that it’s not about stopping gas exports from the Russian Federation. The experts also drew attention to the fact that the current contract between Chisinau and Gazprom is in effect until December 31, 2019, and even purely technical talks about the new agreement are premature. At the same time, Chiril Gaburici touched upon this topic today, which means that there is a political background in his statements, though not at all geopolitical, which the media saw in it. The issues of energy security are a painful topic for almost every post-Soviet state. To whatever extent capitals of the former “freeborn Republics” seek to get rid of Moscow’s domineering influence – whether it be Russia’s allied Belarus or the rebellious against the “empire” Ukraine – only Russia has reserves of blue fuel necessary for the stable functioning of their economies. Geography in this case is more impartial than any court and more blind than any Themis. And if some countries, like Ukraine, were lucky enough to get a trump card in unequal bargaining with Moscow in the form of a gas transportation system left from the Soviet times, other post-Soviet states were less fortunate. Among them, Moldova, moreover, has a constantly growing debt for gas consumed by the breakaway de-facto independent Transdniestria. Chisinau cannot deny it for understandable political reasons. Since Moldova was left without gas in 2008 because of the confrontation between Moscow and Kyiv over the price of blue fuel and its transit, the energy issue for Chisinau has become even more acute, and 10 years later, when relations between Moldova and Russia are in unprecedented tension, finally passed into political dimension. This means that any public statements of high-ranking officials of the Republic of Moldova on Russian gas immediately become a political signal. It remains only to figure out who exactly Chiril Gaburici signaled by on August 19, and on closer examination of the issue the addressee of this message is quick to find. The gas topic is one of universal fortes of President Igor Dodon, one of the few professional politicians in Moldova. The socialist leader, consistently demonstrating close attention to Russia’s interests and views, by default could not deny himself to use the Russian gas topic to acquire political dividends. He has been successfully doing that as president until recently. For example, Igor Dodon linked repayment of the historical debt of the Republic of Moldova for Russian gas with the settlement of the Transdniestrian problem and the actual reintegration of the country. “This issue can be resolved, and it will be discussed in conjunction with those issues that relate to the solution of the problem of this region” In addition, the President of Moldova snatched an opportunity to present construction of the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline in a favorable light for himself, as a politician loyal to Moscow, interpreting it as an opportunity to supply Russian gas via an alternative route. However, the most important and most promising direction for strengthening the rating in the gas issue is the purchase price of blue fuel, which directly affects the price of gas for Moldovans, which is very palpable by the standards of average salaries and pensions in the country. Reducing the price of Russian gas could be a significant achievement of Igor Dodon and would seriously strengthen both his personal political positions and the popularity of the Socialists Party of the Republic of Moldova. Given the fact that the elections to the Moldovan Parliament have been scheduled for the end of February 2019, the PSRM and its actual leader Igor Dodon could now count on the next advance from Moscow in the form of a promise to reduce the gas price already in 2020 as a gesture of confidence in the Party of Socialists and to the incumbent president of the Republic of Moldova. The most interesting thing is that Igor Dodon has already started the information campaign, saying at the end of July that the issue of lowering gas prices has already been discussed with the head of Gazprom Alexey Miller. “We discussed this issue as well. Of course, there is openness on the part of the Russian Federation in the dialogue on this issue, but I will be honest, I do not think there will be any changes before the parliamentary elections” However, the statement by Chiril Gaburici a month later that negotiations with Gazprom are not being conducted at all is an obvious counterattack by the Moldovan government, aimed at limiting the possibility of Moldovan pro-presidential political forces to use the gas issue for their image purposes at the earliest. Moreover, through Chiril Gaburici, the ruling coalition did not respond but attacked Igor Dodon’s positions stealing the initiative in this important issue for Moldova’s fate. No wonder the Minister of Economy and Infrastructure spoke about fair bargaining after the Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline is launched: if the price for Russian gas is lowered, the current Moldovan government will explain this by having an alternative source of supplies and will chalk up this as its accomplishment. In geopolitical terms they will present it as an accomplishment of partners from Romania and the European Union as a whole. If the construction of the gas pipeline branch from Romania is seriously intensified in the near future, the hypothesis is correct for one hundred percent. Today we can certainly say that the observed controversy surrounding the gas issue signals a full-fledged launch of a technological, serious positional struggle for the votes of the voters before the parliamentary elections, which apparently will unfold if not at rallies and protest actions, then certainly in the media sphere of Moldova. The upcoming election race will be a contest of interpretations, conjectures and skills to steal the initiative from the opponent in time. Since this struggle began already now, six months before the elections, by February 2019 it will be an uncompromising battle for the future political survival. The winners and losers will surely be there, but politicians may not be among the latter, since no one today will take the responsibility to assert that Moldova will indeed be able to negotiate a discount on Russian gas that Chisinau will not be able to refuse any way. It is also unclear to what extent the country’s needs will be met by the still not completed branch of the pipeline from Romania, and most importantly at what price blue fuel from Europe will come to Moldova. In the future RM may repeat the sad experience of neighboring Ukraine, which imports gas from the EU at least a third more expensive than its purchase in Russia. Perhaps, this is the price of a difficult road to Europe, but this excuse is unlikely to please Moldovans, which will primarily be affected by the next increase in tariffs. By that time, however, the parliamentary elections will already be over, and life after them for the politicians of the Republic of Moldova is a completely different story…