Moldovan President Igor Dodon does not participate in the current parliamentary elections, but he creates strong PR support for the Party of Socialists of Moldova, which he actually leads. Yesterday, he again met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said that he had agreed with him about the unimpeded delivery of Moldovan goods through the territory of Ukraine. The return to the “strategic partnership” with the Russian Federation was one of the main pre-election trumps of the socialists and Igor Dodon’s trademark. The President of Russia is sure that the relations between the two countries directly depend on the results of the upcoming elections. How realistic is the Moldova’s turn to the East, and can the pro-Russian slogans of Dodon become a concrete program of action?
Who is leading?
The current electoral process has already gone down in history as the toughest in the newest history of Moldova. As expected, scandals, mutual insults, lawsuits became constant companions of the election campaign of 2018-2019.
The competition between the race participants is in circumstances when the Moldovan society is divided along geopolitical fields and the country is in state of identity crisis. This creates a suitable basis for populist statements and loud promises, but the “bookmakers” of the electoral race are already predicting the relative parity between the main favorites – the PSRM, the Democratic Party and the ACUM bloc.
Although the Party of Socialists enjoys a large lead, it will not be able to immediately get an absolute majority in parliament and form a government. According to the latest polls, socialists have the support of just little over 40% of voters. The PSRM’s two main rivals – the Democratic Party that has been the ruling party of the last two years with the support of Washington, and the euro-unionist bloc ACUM (“now”) – may get 20% of the votes each. There will be a power bargaining between these three forces, which declare their incompatibility.
So far, only the democrats have not indicated their position on a possible coalition – both ACUM and the socialists completely deny any alliances with ideological opponents. Therefore, the scenario in which the elections in Moldova will not be over on February 24 seems the most obvious. The factions will not be able to agree, there will be no government, which means that the country will face new electoral clashes.
On the other hand, it is unlikely that new “rounds” of voting will significantly change the power structure. Sooner or later, the main competitors will have to discuss the possibility of creating a “government of national accord”. It cannot be ruled out that irreconcilable opponents will act preventively and will try to organize at least a temporary tactical coalition. Moreover, as the experience of the last 20 years shows, ideology always gives way to pragmatism in the Moldovan politics.
Who will “Moldova” bring together?
Anyway, we cannot escape geopolitics – for too long Moldova remains the battlefield of world and regional powers, and the geopolitical fault line has long passed over the heads of ordinary citizens. In such circumstances, it is very difficult to combine the idea of a socialists’ strategic partnership with Russia, ACUM’s eurocentrism or the democrat’s “Americanism”. Maybe that is why, seeking support of Moscow, Igor Dodon implicitly promotes a new geopolitical model – “Moldovanism”, based on neutrality and “balanced relations with the West and the East”?
A mixture of Moldovanism and multi-vector approach should be to the liking of both the electorate and pragmatic thinkers from the Democratic Party, who having quarreled with the EU, declared that henceforth Moldova comes first. In theory, such an ideological platform is suitable for a coalition between socialists and democrats. But even if we assume that a hypothetical pro-Moldovan parliamentary coalition will appear and form a government, it is unlikely to be durable. “Pro-Moldovanism” and “neutrality” are interpreted differently. For democrats, for example, “neutrality” is not conceivable without relying on NATO and Washington, and the socialists will have to think about how to be friends with everyone and at the same time build a strategic partnership with Russia in the context of the Association Agreement with the EU.
The union of the PSRM and the democrats is unlikely to last for long – geopolitical contradictions and party interests will very soon lead to a political crisis.
Delayed turn
On the other hand, experts believe that the re-election is beneficial just for the socialists: perhaps, over time, the society tired of electoral struggles will finally opt for the Dodon’s party. The paradox is that even after gaining control over the parliament and forming a government, the socialists are unlikely to be able to reverse the pro-European course of development of Moldova.
According to opinion polls, only half of Moldovan citizens support the idea of joining the Eurasian Union. The other half wants to join the EU. Any sharp moves, for example, the rupture of the Association Agreement with the EU promised by Dodon, will have unpredictable consequences. The most likely scenario: public unrest and destabilization of the situation, which the opposition will certainly take advantage of, supported by Washington and Brussels.
Obviously, the socialists’ leader must be aware of that. To risk the achieved result will be reckless, especially considering the ambiguous geopolitical position of the traditional allies of Russia – Armenia and Belarus, which have recently been flirting with the main rivals of Moscow. This means that the best tactics of the PSRM and Igor Dodon in the near future is caution, which excludes sharp and ill-considered geopolitical shots. 
