On February 7, the Verkhovna Rada will incorporate in the Constitution of Ukraine a course to join the European Union and NATO. Preparation for this vote is supervised personally by President Poroshenko, for whom this bill is the last chance to turn the tide of the presidential race in his favor.
Voting as a pre-election weapon of the President
The February 7 vote, which Petro Poroshenko has already called the ‘friend-foe’ test, should be the apotheosis of his foreign and domestic policy of the last five years. Back in 2014, Ukraine abandoned its non-bloc status, and then identified Euro-Atlantic integration as a foreign policy priority. Last year, the draft law on changing the Constitution has already passed the first reading, after which long negotiations with the parliamentary factions began. According to representatives of the head of state, on Thursday everything should go “smoothly”, as they have at least 300 parliamentary affirmative votes already.
It is no secret that Poroshenko uses such an important law as a banal election tool. It is no accident that the vote will take place at this particular time. Poroshenko urgently needs a powerful trump card to beat the growing ratings of competitors that have already put the President to third place in the election race. In this regard, the ritual legal confirmation of the strategic course towards the EU and NATO is reasonable. According to surveys, almost 60% of citizens support joining the European Union, and about 45% support joining the North Atlantic Alliance. The passage of the bill will be a convenient news hook that is easy to present in the media as a ‘proof’ of Ukraine’s approach to the cherished European goal and another achievement of the current President in the international arena.
The information hype around the vote in the Parliament is actively promoted by Poroshenko himself, who always prioritize the issues of European and Atlantic integration in his speech. Every day the President fuels media with stories about how important it is to maintain the country’s Western course and Ukraine’s ‘unprecedented’ close relations with the EU and NATO. He even called the date of submission of the Ukrainian application to join the EU – 2024, just at the end of his possible second presidential mandate.
It is telling that Brussels does not share at all the optimism of the head of state. Representatives of the Alliance and the European Union are skeptical about the ‘integration’ success of Ukraine, saying that the country does not yet meet the basic criteria of these organizations. European and NATO officials refer to 10 to 20 years, which are necessary for the country to finally integrate into Western structures.
Smoke screen from internal problems
Not Ukraine came up with an idea to incorporate the European course in the Constitution. Kyiv, in fact, uses the same techniques as colleagues from neighboring Moldova. There last year, the ruling party also raised the issue of making similar amendments to the main document of the country, trying to strengthen shaky positions before the parliamentary elections. This move did not bring any special dividends to the leadership of Moldova: it has not received due enthusiasm in the local community and understanding in the opposition, which is why the bill failed in Parliament. It is interesting that the EU was also not happy with this idea, hinting through the head of the local EU mission that the existing bilateral agreements do not require any changes to the Moldovan Constitution. After that, the idea finally ‘sunk into oblivion’, and the ruling regime began to use more traditional means for the pre-election period: opened a pre-prepared ‘treasure pot’ and tried to win the sympathy of citizens with hasty social projects and improvements.
Unfortunately for Petro Poroshenko, he failed to collect his ‘treasure pot’. On the contrary – the severe crisis in the economy not only does not give a chance to somehow increase meager salaries, pensions and allowances, but even threatens their stable payments in the same amount. Only since the beginning of the year, the news on the spot ‘impressed’ the head of state with the shortfall in budget revenues, a reduction in the inflow of investments and growing by leaps and bounds public debt. Moreover, the situation is worsened by the strict demands of Western creditors, which forced the head of state to raise gas tariffs and cut some social spending.
Poroshenko’s room for manoeuvre has shrunk to a minimum: he is left without the usual and effective tools that politicians use commonly before the elections. At the same time, he desperately needs something positive to balance the huge anti-rating and improve electoral positions. It surely cannot be found inside the country, so the ceremonial incorporation of the European course in the Constitution is nothing more than an attempt to dust eyes of the voter. Poroshenko deliberately distracts the attention of the population from internal problems, making them involve in a public discussion with a geopolitical focus, in which the President’s position, at first glance, look stronger.
However, the Moldova’s experience clearly shows that it will not be possible to keep the population in a geopolitical ‘cocoon’ for a long time. Sooner or later, citizens get tired of years of talking about the fate of the Motherland, but the fate of their purse worry them every day. Therefore, Poroshenko’s attempt to save his sinking rating due to a false exaggeration of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic prospects looks like all-in, moreover, very risky. If it does not work, the current President will have to surrender his chair after March 31. 
