Moldova after February 24: President Dodon, Prime Minister Sandu, Speaker Nastase?

According to the expert, the elections of 24 February may be final and intermediate, depending on how the seats are taken. “The main difficulty is that the Moldovan politics, especially in the electoral period, looks bright and action-packed in public. In fact, this ‘fancy-ball’ hides pragmatic internal processes, for example, negotiations on the future composition of the government, which are probably already underway,” Astakhov notes. “Even the ruling PDM through Andrian Candu outlined its post-election position and declared its readiness for a coalition with any pro-European forces. At the same time, the Democratic Party has not yet abandoned the so-called minority form of further state administration, if it remains in the minority. Who better than Democrats know that any minority can eventually become a parliamentary majority: Moldovan deputies do not like to sit in opposition for a long time and willingly join the ruling factions, especially when they get paid for it,” the expert says. Astakhov notes that the socialists of Dodon, being the largest continuous opposition, on the contrary, set themselves the mammoth task – to take away power from the PDM and govern alone. There are no open signals of PSRM’s disposition toward cooperation with anyone. “Tactically it is reasonable when your goal is to get the necessary majority in the Parliament. Nevertheless, I am convinced that all possible options for coalitions are being worked out in the headquarters of the socialists in case the power slips away from them again on February 24,” he says. ACUM election bloc, according to Astakhov, shows itself in every possible way in the strongest opposition to all system formations. However, according to the expert, this is a pre-election image, as Sandu and Nastase are unlikely to plan “just to shout from the rostrum of Parliament at the current regime during 4 years”. The expert points out that one of the most popular versions of recent months is the future coalition of the PDM with the socialists, and this guess is backed by the coinciding political technology ‘pro-Moldovan’ slogans and eternal rumors about the secret cooperation of the two parties. Astakhov does not rule out such an option, but he is sure that the main sensation of 2019 will be a completely different political union. “I am convinced that the PSRM deliberately for appearance’s sake criticized Sandu and Nastase almost all the year 2018. Public is on purpose distracted from a completely different, real picture of Moldova’s future. Pro-Europeans and socialists are absolutely opposite political forces that hate each other, but if there is a really worthwhile reason to unite Dodon, Sandu and Nastase, then this reason is the overthrow of Plahotniuc. For this purpose, the socialists and the ACUM may unite in a tactical alliance called “Coalition for deoligarchization of the country and fair elections,” Astakhov says. “In practice, this symbiosis is not something impossible: both political forces oppose the ruling regime and personally Vladimir Plahotniuc. The same applies to the geopolitical centers that support them, that is, to Brussels and Moscow. In addition, the PSRM and ACUM are interested in fair elections without administrative pressure or prosecution,” the analyst says. According to Dmitry Astakhov, the union of right and socialists can take shape both ‘as planned’ and as a matter of urgency. “The first scenario will happen if the PSRM and ACUM gain the necessary parliamentary majority. Then Dodon, Sandu and Nastase will create a temporary coalition with the main purpose of cleansing state institutions, the judicial system, the CEC, the media field and the political space from the henchmen of Plahotniuc. After that, a few months later, the ACUM-PSRM coalition will hold new elections on a conditionally ‘two-party’ system following the example of the United States,” he says. “The second option is tough. If the elections are held with significant violations, Moscow and Brussels together will not recognize the results of the vote. In this case, ACUM and the socialists will have to create the ‘resistance movement’ as a matter of urgency and move the country to early elections, simultaneously protesting in the streets. If the EU and Russia do not change their opinion, the PDM will have to give up at least part of their positions, and already in the next election, the socialists and the right ‘will finish’ the oligarchic regime,” Astakhov says. According to the expert, the tactical interests of Moscow and Brussels to overtake the Plahotniuc regime, couldn’t coincide better, and the Dodon coalition with the pro-Europeans can be an example of ‘reset’ of geopolitical tensions between the EU and Russia. “By 2019, there are enough facts that at some point Moldova saw a new reality, where Dodon is the President, Nastase is the speaker, and Sandu is the Prime Minister,” Astakhov stressed.