The potential association of the Party of Socialists and the Democratic Party won’t satisfy anyone – either the population of Moldova or its international partners.
First steps towards
On April 2, on the initiative and under the patronage of President Igor Dodon, the leadership of the Socialist Party held consultations with the Democratic Party. The meeting was held outwardly in an atmosphere of mutual understanding, expressed in cautious comments of the participants after the discussions. Experts even started talking about the mutual ‘adjustment’ of the parties, taking into account that the views of Socialists and Democrats on certain conceptual issues are quite similar. This also applies to the need to preserve the free trade zone regime with the EU, and the concept of permanent neutrality of the Republic of Moldova as the only guarantee of further conflict-free development of the country and the preservation of regional stability.
Such a controversial and politically conflicting coalition of Socialists and Democrats, which was difficult to imagine before the elections, may soon become pronounced. At least, many Moldovan experts think so.
However, it should be noted that the President of Moldova Igor Dodon is fully aware of the delicacy and inconsistency of this possibility. Bearing direct responsibility for the stability of the state, he seeks to create all the necessary conditions for the search for compromises, even if very uneasy, but avoiding the Moldova’s slide to a protracted political crisis and early re-elections with unpredictable outcome. During the meeting, the head of state delivered an opening speech, noting some common points in the positions of the two parties on social issues and recognizing the negotiations as a “step towards a future coalition”. Nevertheless, the president preferred to keep a principled position ‘above the fray’ as far as possible in the current situation.
Toxic alliance for the West…
Apparently, the main problems of the hypothetical ruling PDM-PSRM alliance will be the lack of legitimacy, rejection by the majority of the population and by many external partners of Moldova. Such power risks becoming the most toxic in the modern history of the country and can finally put an end to the European success story of Chisinau.
This conclusion comes up if analyse expectations of the main international partners of Moldova, each of which may feel disappointed. For example, the United States, which took the oligarchic management of Plahotniuc generally neutral, is unlikely to accept access to power of the party of pro-Russian Igor Dodon. In addition, the active promotion of traditional values by the Moldovan President irritates the U.S. Embassy in Chisinau.
Relations with the European Union may suffer the most. The PDM-PSRM coalition will automatically take the pro-European opposition, in which Brussels has generously invested recently, out of political influence. The EU was ready to accept the Democratic Party in power only if it was balanced by the activities of respectable pro-Europeans from the ACUM bloc. Brussels could tolerate the Socialists, if they contributed to the liberation of the occupied institutions of power and democratization of the political process. However, the PDM-PSRM coalition will take over just the most unacceptable features – oligarchic influence, continued absorption of EU funds by new officials under the pro-Moldova banner and declaring of a positive attitude towards Russia.
Such an alliance will be a problem for neighboring Romania and Ukraine. The main reason is the position of the Moldovan President. Kyiv is bellicose about the head of the neighboring state, who refused to clearly recognize Crimea as part of Ukraine. Dodon and Poroshenko have repeatedly exchanged shots publicly. Romania today itself is in political paralysis because of the confrontation between the President and the ruling party of Social Democrats. Romanian Social Democrats have close relations with Vlad Plahotniuc and the PDM, but neither they nor other political forces in Bucharest will accept Dodon for his vivid anti-unionism and many uncomfortable issues in the field of Moldovan-Romanian relations (like the demarcation of the border).
There are doubts that influential international organizations will be able to establish an adequate partnership with a specific alliance of Democrats and Socialists. Both parties under various pretexts evade full cooperation with the IMF: Democrats prefer grants instead of loans, and Igor Dodon is fundamentally wary of dependence on the Fund. The prospects for cooperation with NATO also raise questions. The pro-Moldova concept, proposed by the Democrats and pleasing to the socialists, presupposes a very restrained interaction with the North Atlantic Alliance.
...and for the East
The paradox is that Russia is unlikely to be delighted with such a scenario. Moscow formed an attitude to Plahotniuc back in 2010-2011, when the latter treacherously destroyed plans to form a coalition of Democrats and Communists. In recent years, the Kremlin has made it clear how it relates to the Moldovan oligarch number 1, when issued international arrest warrant against him. The hypothetical alliance of the PDM and the Socialist Party, which enjoys broad support from Russia, in this case can lead to a serious revision of Moscow’s positions. Some experts predict the possibility of increasing gas prices and trade restrictions for Moldova.
The toxicity of the likely coalition between PDM and PSRM for international partners is plain to see. However, the main loser in the parliamentary elections in Moldova may be the people of Moldova. Every voter will feel deceived. The PSRM electorate unlikely voted for the continuation of the oligarchization of the country and a possible cooling of relations with Moscow. Similarly, the voters of the Democratic Party did not plan to share power with pro-Russian Socialists, who do not want to go to Europe and are strongly against unirea with Romania. Given the questions to its legitimacy, such a coalition is unlikely to be sustainable, without adding unity and stability to the country and completely tarnishing the international image of Moldova. 
