Sergey Cheban: Coalition of Socialists and ACUM — the Only Chance to Bar Plahotniuc from Power

According to the RTA expert, the negotiations between the PSRM and ACUM are protracted and harm the image of both forces: the voter is disappointed in politicians who do not have the guts to fulfill their promises and end the oligarchic regime of Plahotniuc. Nevertheless, the expert is sure that the coalition between pro-Europeans and socialists is the only way to radically change the situation in the country. Struggle with distrust The expert recalls that the union of Dodon, Nastase and Sandu, as predicted by RTA experts before the elections, remains the only feasible opportunity to change the situation in Moldova. “Immediately after the elections, absolutely all unbiased forces called on the right and socialists to unite against Plahotniuc. It is easy to see that the supposed allies are working on something like this, however, making high demands to each other like the minority government of Sandu or a whole set of key government positions for the PSRM. It seems that in the heat of political bargaining both camps forget why, in fact, they’re trying to unite, but still do not burn bridges,” believes Cheban. According to the RTA analyst, the positive aspect of the protracted negotiations around the coalition or joint voting on the ‘anti-oligarchic’ ACUM projects is that both forces remain focused on the idea of an anti-oligarchic coalition. “Yet socialists and pro-Europeans are lacking determination and a solid commitment to sacrifice momentary interests”, the expert believes. Despite all the ‘flaws’ in the current negotiations, party leaders from both sides seem ready to overcome their long-standing personal antipathy and gradually move closer to a common legislative ground. “Igor Dodon, as they write, constantly consults with Moscow, and the ACUM bloc does not even hide that it takes decisions only after consultations with Brussels and Western partners. Admittedly, this situation is far from the concept of an independent sovereign Moldovan democracy. On the other hand, an international consensus may well become a good basis for a future coalition in conditions of strong mutual distrust,” he says. “Like the Bolsheviks in 1917” According to Cheban, the main danger for the negotiating parties is early elections. “Both parties showed not the best result on February 24, while the Democratic Party showed a marked increase, despite the huge unpopularity of Plahotniuc,” the expert notes. According to the expert, in case of early elections Plahotniuc will do everything to accuse ACUM and PSRM of prolonged power vacuum, lacking European money and prospects. In addition, the acting government of Democrats is actively working with the most promising part of the voters, having decided to adjust pensions by 5.3% from April 1, which will cover about 690 thousand citizens. At the same time, as the results of the voting on February 24 showed, the main resource of Plahotniuc is single-mandate constituencies, Cheban is convinced. “Local elections are always competitions in populism, which the Democratic Party almost won in the first round. At the early elections candidates of the Democratic Party at single-mandate constituencies will chastise opponents for the very political incompetence and reasonably indicate to the voter that the right and the socialists have had a chance. This way the democrats may increase their performance in single-mandate constituencies, and even crush the ‘sitting-to-no-effect’ opponents and will take much more seats in these constituencies,” said the expert. “Plahotniuc will just take the power like the Bolsheviks in 1917 being the strongest. And he will get support including from those who yesterday voted for the socialists and the right”, emphasizes Cheban. “This is another factor of Plahotniuc’s potential success in the early elections. ACUM will no longer have the image of ‘fighters against the regime’ supported by Brussels. Socialists will not have bonuses in the form of a special customs regime and amnesty for migrants. Igor Dodon should take into account that in early elections there will be no factor of migrants who returned before February 24 and voted for the PSRM”, notes Cheban. However, according to the expert, the scenario of early elections is not predetermined: strengthening power of Plahotniuc is disadvantageous for both Europe and Russia, and even more harmful for the current political positions of socialists and pro-Europeans. “Most likely, the PSRM and ACUM will have to overcome many years of political inertia in an emergency mode, moving from mutual antipathy to practical interaction. There are no early elections in the country yet, the key to the ‘new Moldova’ door remains in the hands of Igor Dodon, Andrei Nastase and Maia Sandu,” Cheban stresses.