Opinion: Dodon Factor To Help Socialists in Early Elections

Two and a half months have passed since the February vote, but the parties that passed to the Parliament have not achieved significant progress in the formation of the ruling majority. Every day the time is running out, and therefore new elections gets more probable, for example, according to the President of Moldova Igor Dodon there is 70% probability. Vladimir Rotar, RTA: Negotiations on the establishment of a parliamentary majority have almost come to naught. The coalition of the Democratic Party and the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, which seemed almost inevitable to some experts in early April, has not been formed to date. Nor was there a strong partnership between the PSRM and the pro-European opposition from the ACUM bloc. While ideological differences and a catastrophic lack of trust greatly outweigh the overall desire to break the oligarchic regime of Vlad Plahotniuc. Sluggish negotiations are still ongoing, but it seems that the parties have already lost faith in their successful outcome. It is easy to see that all participants in the coalition bargaining to the best of their abilities are gradually beginning to prepare for early voting. The PDM and the Sor Party are engaged in what has already brought them considerable results in the February elections – infrastructure projects and programs to support the population. As last time, the social positive developments are planned to be converted into additional electoral points. The ACUM bloc, in its turn, tries to ‘refresh’ the topic of criminal cases against Plahotniuc in Russia, as well as regularly attacks the government of Democrats. At the same time, the pro-Europeans are playing ‘cat and mouse’ with the Socialists, trying to blame them for the failure of the coalition talks and thereby minimize the inevitable image losses. The PSRM itself obviously uses the May holidays for a series of campaign events. The large-scale rally-march on the 1st of May in Chisinau, in fact, turned into a platform for campaign slogans and declarations. Socialists again appealed to the socio-economic agenda, convincing voters of having a “qualified team” and “hundreds of ready-made bills” that can improve the lives of the population of Moldova. What is noticeable is the resolution adopted at the end of the rally, which defines the ‘red lines’ of the party in the coalition negotiations and its readiness to run in early elections. Most likely, these theses will be repeated during the events of May 9, for which the PSRM captured the main square of the capital. Large-scale events, which will surely eclipse the celebration of Europe Day, will also help to achieve the desired media effect. Another area of Socialists’ activity ‘with an eye to early elections’ is cooperation with Russia. It is important for them to emphasize the continuing Russian support and to stop the spreading rumors about disagreements with the Kremlin. In many ways, this was the purpose of the hyped visit of the PSRM parliamentary faction to Russia, as well as the participation of deputies of the Russian State Duma in the May Day rally in Chisinau. They publicly expressed support for the PSRM by the United Russia and Moscow’s readiness to open the market for Moldovan goods. But the most important trump card of Socialists is their informal leader – the President of Moldova Igor Dodon. His changing role before our eyes is alone a clear sign of preparations for early elections. During the February vote, many experts reasonably believed that the Socialists failed to gain maximum benefit from the ‘Dodon factor’. Now this mistake is being corrected. The President is no longer trying to position himself as a detached observer and neutral arbiter over the negotiations, as it was in early April. His statements – “we are a big socialist family”, “we have a President”, leading the march of the Socialists on May 1 – confirm that Dodon is ready to ‘share’ his popularity and use it in the interests of the Socialists. The head of state once again becomes the face of the PSRM in the eyes of the population, leading an active debate with opponents from the ACUM and articulating key election theses. Dodon’s support should be a great help in the fight for early elections. Socialists, of course, can hardly expect a single majority in the new Parliament, but getting them additional seats seems quite realistic scenario. This will at least greatly facilitate future negotiations on the establishment of a ruling coalition, making potential partners more compliant.