Opinion: US Will Push Russia’s Buttons in the Black Sea Region

Washington is returning to the concept of a long-term strategic confrontation with Moscow from the cold war-era. Andrei Voznesensky, RTA: In late April, an influential strategic research center RAND, working on the orders of the US Government, published a report on Overextending and Unbalancing Russia. The document reads that Russia is a “long-term threat” and provides a detailed list of specific measures that Washington can take to harm Moscow without a direct military clash. Such a research, especially commissioned by the U.S. Department of Defense, suggests that the parties have not yet abandoned the logic of confrontation, rather go for a rise, seeking to do the most damage on each other. Geopolitical rivals are gradually beginning to resort to the dusty methods of the cold war, which, according to the same RAND analysts, are still relevant in the present circumstances. Washington is invited to return to the tactics of hitting the most obvious sore spots of Moscow, the protection of which will sap the enemy’s strength to the maximum extent. Thus, the authors of the report believe that the United States, first of all, should strike at the Russian energy sector, expanding its own oil and gas production and creating conditions for their export to the European Union. Along the way, the latter should be under strong diplomatic pressure to abandon the import of Russian resources and construction of a new infrastructure for their delivery – first of all, the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. At the same time, it is proposed to feed the sanctions machine with the consistent introduction of increasingly severe financial, trade and economic restrictions. Another promising ‘battle front’ in the confrontation with Moscow RAND researchers call the buildup of the US military group and the achievement of a strategic advantage in the most important regions for Russia – Eastern Europe and the Black Sea. It offers a range of actions: deploying additional squadrons of aircraft and tactical missiles, including nuclear weapons, directly near the borders of Russia, increasing the military potential of NATO countries and military exercises near Russian territory. Of particular interest are the proposed tactics in the Black Sea region. The RAND considers it advantageous to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, as well as strengthening the naval group of the United States and NATO countries in the Black Sea, which should cause Moscow’s concern and its response to achieve parity of forces. Significantly, most of the measures described in the report are already being implemented in one way or another, even those identified by the authors as bearing high costs and risks. For example, the RAND found that “Flipping Transnistria and expelling the Russian troops from the region” would be a blow to Russian prestige, but it would also save Moscow money and quite possibly impose additional costs on the United States and its allies. However, Washington, apparently, has its own considerations in this regard, which explains the suddenly increased attention to Russian arms depots and troops in Transnistria from the West and the Moldovan authorities supervised by it. Apparently, the United States is quite ready to put up with extra spending, weighing the potential risks and benefits from winding-up the Russian military group in the ‘TMR’. After all, the ‘saved’ Moscow funds in this case will hardly compensate the enormous reputational and prestige costs, both in the international and domestic arena. In this case, we can expect, at least, various forms of discontent of patriotic forces in Russia itself, as well as intensified discussion on the withdrawal of Russian bases from other post-Soviet territories. Ultimately, the complete elimination of Russian influence in Transnistria and further escalation of tensions in the Black Sea will clear a straight road for a direct attack on the Crimean ‘aircraft carrier’. In order to prevent development of the situation in the most negative scenario, Russia needs to take a number of immediate and non-trivial measures – at the same time, preferably for itself, without getting involved in an expensive and exhausting arms race.