Expert: Shock Therapy Awaits Moldova

According to the RTA regular author Sergey Cheban, the situation after the parliamentary elections is almost hopeless. The expert is sure that some political forces inside and outside Moldova are even ready to provoke a social and economic crisis in order to move the situation from the dead point. Without a chance for a government Commenting on the current situation in Moldova, Sergey Cheban points out that the post-election uncertainty, to which all the political forces of Moldova were ready, eventually turned out to be an impassable swamp, “which no one could even imagine”. “The idea of a coalition of Igor Dodon’s socialists and the ACUM bloc in the early days seemed creative and almost the only model of power formation in Moldova. Although Vlad Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party initially took the first steps, offering ACUM to unite under the pretext of common European aspirations, it was clear to everyone that none of Moldova’s international partners was waiting for Plahotniuc in power. Therefore, the union of President Dodon, Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase and fast de-oligarchization of the Moldovan state seemed to be almost a settled thing,” recalls Cheban. The expert points out that at the core there have been much more real contradictions between the ACUM bloc and the Party of Socialists unexpectedly and mutual claims actually went far beyond political differences. “The problem is that such ‘brand-names’ of the Moldovan politics as Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu have gone to the most remote corners of the ‘ring’ over the past years. Igor Dodon united the left electorate, including the core supporters of rapprochement with Russia. Maia Sandu, on the contrary, surrounded herself with hawks-unionists and radical right politicians. Years of the blame game and election race of Dodon with Sandu and Nastase with socialist Ceban also had an impact. In the end, the leaders of the PSRM and ACUM are all right and ambitious. To step over all these things is not easy, but possible,” says Cheban. “Mutual distrust of socialists and leaders of right-wing parties led to an absurd situation, when against the background of seemingly obvious same main goal for both political formations – the liberation of power from usurpation by oligarchic structures – each party feared to agree ‘wrong’ and lose important positions, influence or popularity,” the analyst emphasizes. Cut the Gordian knot According to Sergey Cheban, the positional ‘standing’ of the leading parties of Moldova is largely guided by the position of international partners. “The EU protects the ACUM bloc from mistakes and does not trust pro-Russian socialists. At the same time, Brussels still refuses to support Plahotniuc’s democrats and does not resume funding for Moldova. The East does the same: The Kremlin has made clear it will not tolerate a coalition ‘collusion’ of the Party of Socialists with the Democratic Party, but has not taken obvious steps in support of specific scenarios in Chisinau. Simply put, world’s capitals are waiting,” the RTA expert notes. The danger in the situation, according to Cheban, is the growing temptation among some politicians to cut the Gordian knot: to provoke a political and even economic crisis to play the ‘salvation of the nation’ against its background. According to the expert, the Prime Minister’s ambitions of Vlad Plahotniuc directly show that authors of this plan are the leaders of the Democratic Party. “Prices for some food and fuel are rising in Moldova. In a striking way, these processes coincide with the approaching threat of early parliamentary elections. One never knows, tomorrow the main trump card in the fight against Plahotniuc – the cessation of macro-financial assistance by the EU – will be his trump card. Plahotniuc’s media resources will easily accuse the ACUM bloc and the PSRM of prolonging the political crisis and bringing the country to early elections, which will again postpone European funding for an indefinite period,” Cheban said. “The government and all the institutions of power remain controlled by Plahotniuc, and now almost nothing prevents the Democratic Party from dramatizing the economic crisis and turning people against the ‘lost in meetings’ socialists and right-wingers. In these circumstances, the early elections will be held under very different banners: it can be expected that Plahotniuc’s technologists will invent new saving projects for Moldova like “good roads” and “the first house”. The author of these initiatives, of course, will be the leader of the PDM. Together with harsh criticism of opponents, this strategy could lead to Democrats enhancing their standing. In fact, Plahotniuc will try to convince the residents of Moldova that the country should be ruled by someone who can cope with the problems and can manage the power,” the expert notes. “This is a very bad scenario, and it should be understood that it has beneficiaries not only in Moldova. The artificial crisis, which Plahotniuc will have to ‘fight’, plays into the hands of Washington. First, the main oligarch of Moldova is a more or less reliable and predictable partner for the US. Second, the growing tension in Moldova will allow the White House to further exacerbate the problem of Russian arms depots on the Left Bank of the Dniester river in unrecognized Transnistria. Criticism of the pro-Russian President of Moldova, who may be called a ‘stakeholder’ in the early elections and the crisis is an obvious reason for new accusations against Moscow and demands to tighten policy against the Russian presence in Transnistria,” the analyst suggests. “One should understand that today the Party of Socialists and the ACUM bloc have almost the last chance to avoid serious shocks in the second half of the year. Otherwise, it is hoped that the leaders of these major political forces have a plan B, which will not allow Plahotniuc to regain power,” Sergey Cheban emphasizes.