Opinion: Chisinau Expects Politeness of the Guests of Moldova

RTA expert Dorin Mocanu suggests that excessive pressure on the political parties of Moldova will cause a disproportionate ‘defense reaction’ On June 3 and 4, three foreign officials will arrive in Moldova at the same time: European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Johannes Hahn, well-known Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak as Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Moldova, as well as Bradley Fraden, Head of the Eastern European unit, European and Eurasian Affairs Bureau, the US Department of State. This shared and, most importantly, simultaneous interest in Moldova from Brussels, Washington and Moscow is an atypical and significant situation. Experts and journalists, as usual, have already come up with a dozen conspiracy theories. Although the tendency to look for a ‘crafty plan’ in everything gives the Moldovan policy the necessary zest, sometimes it veils very obvious and prosaic scenarios. It is clear that the time of visits is directly related to the domestic political processes in Moldova, as the protracted post-electoral ‘mischief’ is coming to an end and the time is coming to arrive to a decision. The capitals of the guardian countries of the Moldovan political forces decided to study on the spot how the Moldovan policy may develop in 2019. Therefore, it will be interesting to follow the route of meetings of each of the guests. Especially as now it is important to observe political correctness, to communicate to leaders of all political formations and to shake hands with them ‘on cameras’. Otherwise, impoliteness may result in symmetric inhospitality of the host. In principle, there is no reason to claim that Hahn, Kozak or Fraden are authorized to predetermine or ‘bless’ this or that format of the ruling coalition in the Republic of Moldova. An extremely odious and quite independent political regime has been established in Moldova in recent years. It is zealous about any attempt by the visiting envoys to play in the domestic field of Moldova and to publicly name the preferred options of the coalition in Parliament, none of which, by the way, offers a place for the ruling Democrats of Plahotniuc. The reaction to attempts to publicly promote the idea of early elections may become no less harsh. None of the guests will be allowed to predefine the internal agenda in any way, although some delegates have both the will and the resources to do so. The fact is that the current government in Chisinau will take careless value judgments and statements about the ‘only right’ form of the future government in Moldova or the need for early elections as interference in internal affairs and personal insult. We should not write off the opportunity and the desire of the host country to demonstrate to any of the distinguished guests the real attitude of individual groups of deputies in the Party of Socialists and in the ACUM bloc. For example, right during the visits it may become clear that some members of the new Parliament are not really against the coalition with the PDM and its leader. Especially against the background of unsuccessful attempts of ‘sitting-to-no-effect’ PSRM and ACUM to agree on cooperation ‘against oligarchs’. Since much has been said about the motives and objectives of the visit of Kozak, Hahn and Fraden, we should understand the position of the Moldovan authorities. It can be assumed that the main task of the host country will be an attempt to bring a simple idea – the political forces of Moldova should agree themselves without influence and pressure from the outside, independently create a coalition and form a government. Above all: any scenario can come true only with the approval of the PDM and personally Vlad Plahotniuc. The main oligarch of Moldova will probably find ways to prove once again that his party remains the only truly independent ruling political force in Moldova. With due diligence of high guests of Chisinau, the situation can be resolved without ‘sudden moves’ – there’s always place for a pragmatic bargaining. In addition, there are reasons to believe that the pressure on the political forces of Moldova is not the main reason for the visits of officials from Brussels, Moscow and Washington to Moldova. Getting the Moldovan topic on the international agenda and the need to ‘feel the sentiments’ arose in connection with the unprecedented security summit scheduled for June in Jerusalem, which, according to experts, will precede the next meeting of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.