Dependence Day: Moldova in the US-Russia-EU Triangle

Dorin Mocanu Moldova has reached the next anniversary of the declaration of independence under the tough pressure of geopolitical titans. What’s next? Today the Republic of Moldova marks 28 years since the adoption of the Declaration of Independence. The past year was a landmark for the country: Moldova survived the parliamentary elections and even got rid of the oppression of the Democratic Party of Vlad Plahotniuc. It seemed that the expulsion of the toxic oligarch and creation of a ‘two-headed’ coalition of ACUM and PSRM would end the long-term split of society and become the starting point of Moldova’s new history. Reality as always disappointed. The consequences of the ‘anti-oligarchic revolution’, which was supposed to ‘reset’ Moldova, are still window dressing. At the same time disease that afflicted the RM during the rule of Plahotniuc – the split of the population on geopolitical grounds, endless populism, the lack of reforms – has not gone away. Their symptoms clearly showed up during the recent arrival of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The visit of the Russian official led to a major political crisis involving the government and the President’s office, which could not find out the level of formality of Sergei Shoigu’s visit. In the end, the Defense Minister of Russia visited Moldova and met with Igor Dodon, voicing the sensational initiative of the disposal of Russian ammunition depots in Cobasna. However, the scandal did not end even after Shoigu departed: Prime Minister Maia Sandu promised to carefully “analyze the consequences” of the visit of the Russian Minister. The scandal with the high-ranking Russian official in Moldova is not the first time, but the environment in which it occurred makes you think. Moldova is now in the midst of unprecedented attention from external players. And almost every week Moldova has to pass such tests for maturity, which easily lead to stress throughout the political system of the country. So, in a few days, the US representative – Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser John Bolton will arrive in the country. The arrival of the American envoy of such high rank immediately after Shoigu’s visit can hardly be considered a mere coincidence. Many experts see this as a kind of distance competition between the United States and Russia for influence on the new Moldovan government. Besides Moscow and Washington, do not forget about Brussels, which firmly took up Moldova after the overthrow of Plahotniuc. The European Union is doing its best to ‘revive’ the process of European integration, which was stalled under the previous regime. At the same time, while taking care of Chisinau, the EU does not hesitate to manipulate the financial aid that Moldova needs as air, clearly linking it to the implementation of reforms. Moldova, being under the tight pressure of the interests of international players, is not coping at all. Deoligarchization has stalled, and the new government clearly lacks ideas on how to manage the growing crisis in the economy. These frustrated hopes promote friction in the ruling coalition itself. Not a day passes without provocative attacks against each other from one or another wing. Lacking real success in the domestic arena, authorities have not come up with anything better than to use the tried recipes of their predecessors. Every day geopolitics plays an increasingly important role in the rhetoric of Moldovan officials, and the questions ‘with whom and to what extent Moldova should be friends’ are again in the spotlight, as proved by the recent visit of Shoigu. Balancing between public expectations, the influence of geopolitical players and its own national interests, Moldova barely holds the delicate balance that was literally forced in June by the three capitals. To maintain the illusion of unity, the ruling coalition has to invent a variety of and sometimes ridiculous steps, such as laying flowers separately at different monuments on independence day. Such decisions can be considered innovative, although from outside it is increasingly noticeable that the only thing that really keeps Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu together is the need to be good for everyone, to please both ‘yours and ours’. In itself, the ability to be friends with everyone for the former Soviet republics of Eastern Europe has always been considered an advantage. After all, it is logical that it is better to trade with Europe and Russia, to remain in the center of financial flows and ensure the transit of goods and services. In fact, to be friends with all evenly did not work for anyone. Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic States – all sooner or later made a clear choice with whom to be. Moldova has not stayed away and has been associated with the European Union since 2014. However, Moldova has its special circumstances. These are unrecognized Transdniestria with pro-Russian population, Operational Group of Russian Troops and huge ammunition depots, and an army of thousands of migrant workers in Russia. And Moldova does not and cannot have any geopolitical ambitions, unlike Ukraine and Belarus. Therefore, Chisinau could learn to live in harmony with everyone, but it turned out that Moldova is cut in half along geopolitical lines. In these conditions, attempts of the Moldovan government of the socialists and the right to look like a single entity look ridiculous. However, the real threat to the stability of the country is quite different: Moldovan politics is far like never from the real aspirations of the people, and the current ‘deoligarchization’ flags are not really sincere goal of Sandu, Nastase, Igor Dodon and generally anyone, and are almost the only pretext which can unite them. Moldovans really don’t need high-profile imprisonments and Plahotniuc, Sor and other ‘bad guys’ in jail: this will only work as a temporary outlet. Moldovan citizens need the stolen billion to return to the country and help patch holes in the budget. They need European financial assistance not to lead to growth of utilities tariffs. Moldovans need amnesty for migrant workers in Russia not every five years, for the elections. They need jobs at home and legal civilized employment abroad. The Moldovan authorities think in terms of friendship with Russia, friendship with Europe, commitments to international partners, the concepts of unionism and moldovenism, the European and ‘middle’ way, the celebration of victory over fascism and grief for the victims of political repression. But Moldova should think in the terms of the welfare of its own people. As long as the ‘worlds’ in which the government and society live do not intersect, no balance and stability in the country can be sustainable. The colossus on clay feet is always destined to collapse, especially when it is pressed by geopolitical players. The US-EU-Russia triangle helped Chisinau to get rid of Plahotniuc – but it can also ruin the country if the new government does not consider it necessary to finally turn its eyes to the real aspirations of the people.