Dodon or Sandu. Who the USA Will Choose?

Vladimir Rotar Moldovan President Igor Dodon is going to New York, and the visit of Prime Minister Maia Sandu to the United States has been postponed indefinitely The government delegation of Moldova headed by the Prime Minister, one of the leaders of the pro-European bloc ACUM Maia Sandu, was expected to make a visit to the United States of America. It has followed the arrival in Chisinau of the U.S. President’s National Security Adviser John Bolton. In the Moldovan capital, Bolton held meetings with Maia Sandu and Igor Dodon, promising Moldova support, including in strengthening defense. The visit to Chisinau by Trump’s adviser was considered a prologue and the last ‘synchronization of watches’ before Maia Sandu’s trip to Washington. However, almost immediately after Bolton’s departure, it became known that the visit of the delegation of Moldova to Washington was urgently canceled by the American side and postponed indefinitely. According to the official version it was “caused by the change in the agenda of US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo”. Vague wording of Washington explains nothing and is a little inconsistent with reality. In fact, Sandu’s visit to the United States was prepared much in advance, it was repeatedly talked about and promoted as the main event of this fall. The delegation of Moldova expected to stay in Washington for a few days, which means that the meeting with Pompeo could be postponed. It is important that the American side points to the ‘change in the agenda’: so it’s clearly not the Secretary’s busy schedule, it’s the subject. The reasons for what happened can and should be sought among the facts, and the most striking events of recent days were just visits: first Defense Minister Shoigu, and then John Bolton. Russia through Shoigu reported that for the first time is ready to make concessions on its contingent in unrecognized Transdniestria, and also offered to dispose of ammunition from depots in Cobasna. This idea was supported by the United States, which, through Bolton, expressed its interest to join the process and even provide the necessary technical assistance. In this context, it is important to note that Sandu’s American tour was not the only trip of the Moldovan delegation to the United States planned for September: Dodon is expected to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York at the end of September. The President very aptly told John Bolton about that, noting that he would like to meet with representatives of the US leadership. It is curious that the President’s speech at the UN will break the long tradition when the Prime Minister of Moldova went to such events. Dodon’s intentions to improve relations with the United States are no secret. The President is cramped in a ‘pro-Russian’ role, and the anti-oligarchic coup in June opened up completely new prospects for him in the West. Since then, the head of state has been in constant contact with U.S. Ambassador Derek Hogan, and regularly receives U.S. envoys. At the meeting with Bolton Dodon stated “a fundamentally new stage of strategic partnership between Moldova and the United States”. In addition, the President began to use much more compromise rhetoric on some sensitive geopolitical issues – for example, publicly recognizing the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The warming of Dodon’s contacts with Western partners is a fact, as this is also the fact that the offices previously closed to him are ready to receive Moldovan leader. In that perspective, the cancellation of Sandu’s visit looks logical and highlights Washington’s current strategy on the Moldovan track. It should be remembered that the United States in Eastern Europe pursues, first of all, military and strategic goals. It is important for Washington to strengthen its presence in the Black Sea and smoothly move NATO eastward. For this Alliance ‘mildly’ integrates Moldova and Ukraine, placing different branches on their territories: offices, communication centers and bureaus, formally performing various advisory and ‘methodological’ tasks. In addition, the United States actively trains military personnel of the Moldovan and Ukrainian army to NATO standards and objectives. The socio-economic situation, reforms, living standards, democracy and domestic political values are of interest to the United States only as a resource of influence on Moldova and Ukraine, again in military and political terms. Therefore, the European Union has to build stability and European civilization in these countries: finance reforms, promote democratic values, train officials, correct distortions in the economy. Maia Sandu’s pro-European government will have to do just that, as Brussels directly says. As a result, Sandu’s Cabinet seems unable to offer anything of interest to the United States. Apparently, this is the true reason for the postponement of the visit to the United States: Bolton took note that the Sandu’s government simply repeats the general thesis about cooperation and partnership, and to meet Pompeo for this is not necessary. Igor Dodon in this sense has become a much more promising figure for Washington with direct access to Moscow and Vladimir Putin personally. The United States in the region needs dynamics, a new chess game with Russia, which will allow getting out of the senseless impasse in Ukraine and Moldova. Officially Igor Dodon has organized the visit of Shoigu and, in fact, provoked the first progress on military depots in Cobasna. Moscow covertly invited Washington to keep in touch through the leader of the socialists, making it clear that he could become the main mediator on the regional security topic important for the United States. The cancellation of Sandu’s visit is a signal that Washington has accepted the offer and, at least at the first stage, is ready to consider Moscow’s rules of the game. However, now much will depend on the Moldovan leadership: if the President of RM fails the mission as a facilitator, strategic military component of foreign policy would remain with government of Sandu.