Will Moldova Agree to Disposal of Russian Ammunition in Transdniestria?

Sergey Cheban Apparently, Chisinau will not agree to Moscow’s conditions for the disposal of the arsenal in Cobasna Last week, the first reactions of Moldovan officials and international experts to Russia’s initiative to dispose of ammunition in the unrecognized Transdniestria came out. As it turned out, such a move by Moscow has seriously complicated the problem for the pro-European part of the ruling coalition, which previously could talk about it as much as necessary, without solving it. The Moldovan government has not yet articulated their position on the proposal of Russia. This can be seen in the statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Nicu Popescu, who so far only calls for expanding the range of participants in the disposal of the Russian arsenal. Apparently, the ACUM bloc hopes that the involvement of the West will protect the interests of the country and will not allow it to become an ‘easy victim of the Kremlin’. Many experts agree that now it is important for the US and the EU to prevent the launch of the project as a bilateral arrangement of Russia and Moldova, or even with Transdniestria (like the current peacekeeping operation on the Dniester). According to Western analysts, such a format would mean a major loss of the Moldovan elites and at the same time a serious strengthening of Russia in the region. Despite this, it is safe to say that the Kremlin plans to administer the project on their own and will not allow ‘outsiders’ to the protection and disposal of the arsenal. Moscow, apparently, will give simple reasoning: since Russian weapons are located on the territory of Moldova, the issue of their disposal lies exclusively in the framework of bilateral relations. For the sake of transparency, Russia can only allow remote monitoring by the OSCE. The OSCE itself shows the most active interest in the topic and has already stated that it is ready to participate in the preparation and disposal of weapons. Less than a month after the proposal voiced by Moscow, OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger was on a working visit to Moldova. He said that the OSCE is ready to undertake the organization of financial and technical assistance for the removal and disposal of ammunition. The head of the OSCE field mission in Moldova, Claus Neukirch, offered expert support to the Moldovan leadership to assess the technical condition of the depots. There is no doubt that the long-awaited developments in the issue of Russian ammunition on the Left Bank of the Dniester river will continue to cause the most lively reaction in international organizations and interested capitals. For the first time in many years, Moscow’s principled position on ammunition in the Moldovan Left Bank is changing: many suggest that this initiative may even be a trap of the Kremlin. So far, the question is how Russia will arrange the implementation of the project and what will be a ‘price’ for it. It is unlikely that Moscow in the conditions of geopolitical confrontation with the West is going to weaken its military and strategic positions in the region, which is also inextricably linked to the Ukrainian context. The first details of the Russian model of ammunition disposal were announced last week at a meeting of Nicu Popescu and Sergey Lavrov: — the first stage involves only obsolete arsenals with expired shelf life; — defense offices of the countries need to sign the action plan on all the collected military issues, including on supply of the Russian peacekeepers on the left bank of the Dniester; - the parties need to prepare project documentation and identify sources of funding; - removal and disposal should be carried out exclusively by military specialists of the Russian Federation with the use of Russian equipment. This information, judging by the discussions in the Moldovan media, numbed Chisinau politicians and forced them to turn to influential Western embassies. Interestingly, Sergey Lavrov reminded Chisinau that in the early 2000s, the removal of weapons began thanks to progress in the Transdniestrian settlement. Thus, Moscow makes it clear that the lack of developments in the status of Transdniestria can further delay the disposal of ammunition, especially those which shelf life has not yet expired. It should be recalled that recently, during a youth event, the Russian Foreign Minister reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to the principles of political settlement of the conflict, agreed at the beginning of the last decade in the ‘Kozak Memorandum’. It is symptomatic that it met a sharp response from the Moldovan government and the Foreign Ministry – they said that this settlement formula for Chisinau is absolutely unacceptable. Some experts also see Moscow’s desire to strengthen the position of the Left Bank of the Dniester through the possible disposal of the military arsenal. The project requires sending impressive resources, military specialists and technical means on the left bank that will strengthen the military component of Russia in Transdniestria. First of all, it concerns the military airfield in Tiraspol, which is controlled by the Russian military. The last time it was used in October 2012 to take military equipment of the Russian Federation for repair. In this context, Moscow may also raise the issue of the delivery of a helicopter squadron, which is attached to the joint peacekeeping force. The more Russia lifts the veil over the project of ammunition disposal, the more opinions are heard that its final parameters are unlikely to please the West and Chisinau. It is possible that the Western development partners will eventually, under various pretexts, force Moldova to ‘freeze’ the implementation of the Russian initiative on Moscow’s terms. Time will tell whether the pro-Russian forces in Moldova will be able to resist such external pressure.