US Forces Serbia to Recognize Kosovo

RTA expert Sergey Isaenko is confident that Belgrade will not be able to withstand the onslaught of the EU and the US for a long time. According to the analyst, Serbia will only try to bargain for certain areas of Kosovo and will not resist the inevitable This autumn promises to be eventful in the conflict regions of Europe. The long-awaited meeting of the Normandy format and the first personal contact between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky are scheduled for October. The next meeting in the 5+2 format on the Transdniestrian settlement is also to be held that month. At the same time, politicians and experts expect the resumption of negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina where breakthrough solutions are likely to come. As you know, this year the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has faced insurmountable challenges. Although at first the parties seemed close to a decisive point of settlement, negotiations soon reached an impasse. Tensions between the two countries have been rising recently. The West even had to initiate off-year elections to Kosovo’s Parliament in order to transform the political image of the Republic and pave the way for new discussions between Belgrade and Pristina. Recall that since the fall of 2018, the two capitals have been actively discussing a political agreement on the normalization of relations. In particular, it was decided to adjust the borders and exchange territories with the predominant residence of Serbs or Albanians. This idea was supported by Washington, while insisting on documenting the principle provision on mutual recognition of the parties. The European Union represented by Angela Merkel, however, opposed the change of borders in the Balkans, significantly shaking the unity of the West and the prospects for a settlement. Attempts by Germany and France to smooth the situation and resume contacts between the parties were unsuccessful. The April summit in Berlin did not help to address tensions that arose, and the broad meeting planned for July in Paris did not take place at all. In August, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced a “hot autumn” for a Serbian-Kosovo settlement after his visit to the United States. The first signal for this was the appointment of the U.S. special representative for the Western Balkans, Matthew Palmer, on August 30. According to experts, the experienced American diplomat in this area indicates the priority nature of the Kosovo issue for the United States and Washington’s strong commitment to end the conflict. In his first trip to the Balkans in September, Matthew Palmer articulated several key points that will move the negotiation process forward and closer to the final deal. First of all, it is the abolition of 100% duty on Serbian products by the new government of Kosovo. In response, the US expects Belgrade to stop to further lobby for the revocation of Kosovo’s recognition by third countries. By the way, in August, Togo became the 15th state to revoke recognition of the republic’s independence. At the same time, Washington insists on mutual recognition of the two countries as the main point of the agreement on normalization of relations. It is symbolic that Palmer said this during his visit to Belgrade. There is no doubt that with American assistance, the talks will be unfrozen. Their starting point, apparently, will be the same formula in which Pristina receives Albanian-populated areas of Serbia, and Belgrade – Serb communities in Kosovo. After that, mutual recognition of the two countries is expected. A confirmation of this approach is the position of the Serbian Prime Minister. He recently stated that “recognition of Kosovo within the existing borders is a barrier that Belgrade will never cross”. A clear focus on the borders suggests that, if they change, recognition is real. Serbia’s line of conduct is clear. Belgrade is increasingly coming to terms with the existence of Kosovo statehood, and increasing pressure from Washington makes its recognition inevitable. The point about borders is a safety net for Serbian elites in case of excessive disappointment of the population. The consolation prize in the form of parts of Kosovo will surely be presented as a diplomatic victory and will allow Belgrade to save face. Serbia will be able to say in the future that it managed to bargain something for itself in the most difficult negotiations and recognize Kosovo within the most reduced borders. Washington, after the Kosovo case, will transfer the freed political and diplomatic resources to other conflict points in Europe – Donbas and Transdniestria – where the EU and Russia have recently seized the initiative.