Opinion: Sandu and Dodon Need to Figure Out How to Keep Coalition By the End of the Year

RTA expert Sergey Cheban is sure that the process of power-sharing in Moldova is not yet completed. In his opinion, the international sponsors of the PSRM-ACUM coalition expect that the union of Sandu, Dodon and Nastase will last for a long time, and prepare Chisinau for big changes in the Transdniestrian issue The Moldovan authorities have the usual symptoms of ‘puberty’ Commenting on the current situation in relations between the government of the ACUM bloc and socialist President Igor Dodon, the expert draws attention to the constant and overt mutual reproaches of politicians and their parties. “Sandu and Dodon do not conflict explicitly, but people can see with the naked eye that the President and Prime Minister compete in everything. The Prime Minister in Brussels has achieved the unfreezing of macro-financial assistance and new loans, Dodon went to Moscow to negotiate a gas discount. The government went on a visit to the United States, a few weeks later Dodon went there,” Cheban says. “To a certain point Sandu and Dodon tried not to comment on each other, but by the fall they have broken the neutrality. The President does not hesitate to publicly assess the actions of the government, Sandu and Nastase strongly criticize Dodon’s speech at the UN. The President easily explains why Russian TV channels cannot be unblocked: he says, you understand, it is necessary to keep the coalition, and ACUM will be much opposed. That is, if earlier there was neutrality between the right-wingers and the socialists, now it is armed neutrality,” the RTA analyst believes. According to Cheban, what is now happening in the camp of the ruling coalition, cannot be considered a real discord. The expert is confident that the skirmishes between the President, Prime Minister, PSRM and ACUM will continue at least until the local elections. “In fact, the formation of the power structure, the struggle for key positions and spheres of leadership in Moldova continue. The socialists and the right-wingers have been in opposition for years, have been seeking power for a long time and are not going to sit idly by and give extra levers of control to each other. If in the first months of ‘infancy’ the coalition still retained a plausible appearance, now the Moldovan authorities show the usual symptoms of ‘puberty’ — with scandals and attempts to assert themselves,” Cheban says. To know the decision-makers in Moldova Sergey Cheban is confident that the unity of the ruling coalition requires not only logic and responsibility for the future of the country, but also clear requirements of international partners, who actually manually put together an unnatural union of the pro-European right-wingers and pro-Russian socialists. “The three capitals, in fact, made a rather risky choice when they decided to intervene in the internal affairs of a sovereign country and gently helped oligarch Plahotniuc to leave power and hastily leave Moldova. Naturally, this is evidence of the weakness of the Moldovan opposition, which could not agree within itself, but it is also a responsibility for the future of the new government. And this responsibility lies with Brussels, Washington and Moscow. It is obvious that no one will let the Sandu-Nastase-Dodon union fall apart that easily,” the expert emphasizes. Cheban is sure that the EU, Russia and the United States expect the unity of the Moldovan authorities for geopolitical reasons. According to the analyst, progress in the settlement of conflicts in Europe will require from the world powers a clear understanding of who and to what extent makes decisions on behalf of Moldova. “Recently Ukraine has agreed with the ‘Steinmeier Formula’, which opens the way to a meeting in the Normandy format and direct dialogue between Putin and Zelensky on the Donbas issue. Experts have long predicted some progress in the settlement in the East of Ukraine since Zelensky was elected, and, apparently, it’s coming. At the very least, this is what the soon-to-be departing leaders of France and Germany, and indeed Moscow and Kyiv want. Something will happen to Donbas, nobody plans to leave this conflict in constantly heated-up state,” Cheban says. The expert recalls that through the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Moscow directly hinted that Donbas will repeat the path of unrecognized Transdniestria. According to Cheban, the new scenarios of the Transdniestrian problem can be somehow connected with some warming between Ukraine and Russia. “Kyiv is one of the mediators in the Transdniestrian settlement. If Russia and Ukraine manage to bring together positions on Donbas, we may expect some joint Ukrainian-Russian steps on transformation of the Transdniestrian conflict. In the end, the Russian idea to dispose of ammunition on the left bank of the Dniester is also a step towards Kyiv, as the Cobasna depots are close to the Ukrainian border,” the analyst suggests. “If progress on Transdniestria follows Donbas, the international partners will need a coherent power in Chisinau, which will not divide powers and renounce the actions of each other. While the PSRM and ACUM divide spheres of influence, there will be no clarity: even the dialogue with Transdniestria is the responsibility of the Deputy Prime Minister, who formally submits to the government, but during many years was an adviser to Igor Dodon. Apparently, before the New Year, the Moldovan authorities need to settle all the confusion and figure out how to live on,” Cheban notes. “No one will forgive the collapse of the coalition or the eternal division of portfolios to the current leaders of Moldova neither inside Moldova, nor in the high offices of the big capitals. Too much is at stake,” concludes the RTA expert.