Expert: Local Elections Showed That 2020 in Moldova Will Be Turbulent

RTA expert Sergey Cheban is sure that the power in the country is not monolithic: there’s been no flawless victory of a particular party. However, the ACUM bloc is gradually coming to the position of the socialists, and in 2020 the country will face a dramatic struggle for power with an uncertain end. Sergey Cheban, RTA Nobody expected sensation from local elections in Moldova, it was clear that the time of a ‘deadly fight’ between the socialists of Dodon and pro-Westerners of Sandu and Nastase has not yet come and is unlikely to come soon. First, the parties’ powers are almost balanced, and the conflict between them would escalate into a long, exhausting and senseless confrontation. Second, in June, the United States, Russia and the European Union literally went bald-headed for putting the current government into one coalition. ACUM and PSRM both do not want to disappoint partners and sponsors. There was no sensation. Some won somewhere, others won somewhere else. Somewhere the remnants of the Sor Party won. Renato Usatii, 5 years after his exile from Moldova, won in Balti. It is interesting that the Usatii factor clearly shows the current state of Moldovan politics and public sentiment: some great love for the current leaders of the country and their parties is out of the question. Moldovans still vote in search of happiness and are willing to repeatedly choose populists like Usatii hoping that something will change. What is also interesting is that past leaders gradually fade. First of all, the Party of Socialists needs to think: being in opposition, the PSRM effectively gathered the entire left electorate. The socialists built their ideology on two pillars: criticism of everything that Plahotniuc’s authorities does, and slogans ‘for all good’: for friendship with Russia, for the country, for the Moldavian language, for Orthodoxy and traditional values. As a result, against the PDM that usurped power, Igor Dodon’s party looked advantageous and won. Now the situation has changed: the PSRM’s competitors are more reserved pro-Europeans, who have nothing to be blamed for. The socialists were also forced to tone down their anti-European rhetoric, realizing the real scale of Moldova’s dependence on EU financial assistance. So today, the forces of pro-Europeans and socialists continue the trend of 2019 and gradually equalize. For the PSRM, the main problem is potential. It is easy to see that the election of the mayor of Chisinau repeats the scenario of 2018: in the first round, there is no winner, but in the second, experts predict victory for Andrei Nastase. As last year, Nastase plans to mobilize his electorate and win in the second round. Socialist Ion Ceban seems to have no one to mobilize, and this trend is common for the whole country. The socialists have been in the Moldovan Parliament and at other levels of government for a long time. The PSRM does not offer anything fundamentally new to the voter, but the ACUM bloc is still some kind of intrigue, new faces, not tainted by corruption and other costs of Moldovan politics. It can be easily observed that in the local elections the pro-Europeans are not too far behind the socialists, especially against the rather impressive result of the formally ‘defeated’ Democratic Party. Apparently, the right-wingers will continue to smoothly attack the positions of the PSRM, while not shattering the coalition with loud statements and demarches. The future goal of the ACUM bloc is presidential elections. If the right manages to put their head of state, they will not fear even off-year parliamentary elections as loss of a presidential post will become fatal for socialists. The tendency to a smooth flow of influence from the socialists of Dodon to the pro-European of Sandu and Nastase will gradually increase, and by the beginning of the struggle for the presidency should reach a turning point. It is naive to believe that this is not understood in the PSRM headquarters or the presidential office. Given this fact, we can assume that 2020 in Moldova will be no less turbulent than 2019. We can expect an escalation of conflicts between the ruling parties in all areas, from the economy and politics to security and even the Transdniestrian settlement. When the decisive battle is approaching, all means are good. The main danger in this situation comes from the struggle between Sandu and Dodon: if they were opposition politicians out of power as in the old days, now they would not hesitate to use strong words. Now the Prime Minister and the President rely only on the cold war without sudden movements that can break up the ruling coalition. However, the energy of the conflict, which both sides will try to disguise for as long as possible, will one day manifest itself – and for Moldova it threatens a new political crisis, the revenge of the remnants of the Democratic Party and the strengthening of populists like Usatii. And in this case, Chisinau may not be helped by Brussels, Washington and Moscow.