Moldova and Transdniestria on the Verge of Freezing Relations?

Dmitry Astakhov Apparently, Chisinau and Tiraspol this year will not be able to approach the solution of mutual problems Yesterday in Chisinau, Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration in the government of Chicu Alexandru Flenchea held his first meeting with the political representative of Tiraspol Vitaly Ignatiev. Recall that the latest time they talked in mid-September, which was followed by a three-month pause, mainly related to the political reshuffle in Chisinau. Because of the long break in contacts, the parties approached the new meeting with a heap of accumulated contradictions and unresolved problems. Four priorities have become traditional for Moldova: freedom of movement of Moldovan officials on the territory of the left bank, human rights, proper functioning of Latin script schools in the Transdniestrian region, as well as unification of the tax and customs space. Tiraspol again appealed to the need to implement the agreements of recent years (such as the agreement on telecommunications), as well as the removal of barriers for Transdniestrian business, primarily in the banking sector. Meanwhile, the most high-profile topic continues to be the notorious Bratislava Protocol, which has not yet been signed by Moldova and Transdniestria. The parties cannot agree on one of its provisions in any way and, judging by Alexandru Flenchea’s briefing, they tried to do it again during yesterday’s meeting. Based on its meager results, including not having a traditional joint briefing, it can be concluded that Chisinau and Tiraspol are still far from a mutually acceptable presentation of certain provisions of the document. Thus, the prospects for signing this Protocol in principle, given the narrowing time frame, are still quite clouded. In general, the tone of relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol demonstrates the extremely unhealthy atmosphere that unexpectedly struck the negotiation process this year. This is proved by the rather critical press release of Tiraspol following the meeting of political representatives that says the negotiators had difficulties even with the signing of draft agreements already prepared by experts. This state of affairs, which has not yet changed even after the appointment of a new Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, suggests that the overall situation in the Transdniestrian settlement is gradually deteriorating. Earlier, the expert community associated the pause in talks between the chief negotiators with the need to complete the OSCE Ministerial Council held on December 5-6 in Bratislava. It was expected that at the annual forum, international participants in the negotiation process on Transdniestria would sum up and take organizational measures to get relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol on a predictable track. However, as yesterday’s meeting showed, this did not happen. This can be explained by the fact that either there is no unity of views among external players, or the current situation, in their opinion, does not yet require decisive intervention. Nevertheless, it remains a big mystery for most experts and journalists why the dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol is still going downward in the environment of all power in Moldova getting into the hands of the Party of Socialists and Igor Dodon personally. As known, the Transdniestrian settlement has long been one of the cornerstones of domestic policy for the President and now it no longer requires long and painstaking coordination of positions with the ACUM bloc. In addition, Igor Dodon recently held an unexpectedly warm meeting with the leader of Transdniestria Vadim Krasnoselsky, where he even pledged to help solve problems with telecommunications and criminal cases against officials of Tiraspol. And yet, even despite this, the Transdniestrian settlement process continues to regress and gradually plunge into a deep crisis, like the one of 2006. Taking into account the already appeared negative symptoms, it is becoming more obvious to everyone that something needs to be changed in the negotiation process. International mediators and observers, apparently, have not yet agreed on the formula, which may be hampered by the collapsed consensus of Russia, the US and the EU on Moldova. However, at the current stage, external assistance to the negotiation process seems to be critical, otherwise they will have to return Chisinau and Tiraspol to the negotiations from a much more difficult state. Not to mention making up for already fragile mutual trust. Bratislava became a symbolic place for Chisinau and Tiraspol, who were returned there to the negotiating table back in 2002. This time, the Slovak capital has become a symbol of the milestone stage, from which relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol can go either towards revival or final freezing.