The European Union Turned Cold Shoulder to Dodon and the Socialists?

Marina Dragalin The “Renaissance” within relations of Moldova and the European Union did not last for long. The year 2019 will remain in the history of the country as the period of the European “Renaissance” of the Republic of Moldova – it is for the first time since the failure of the “Success Story” that such a thaw of relations with the European Union was noticed. Obviously, this was facilitated by the mobilization and integration of pro-European forces, which formed a single bloc in an effort to defeat the socialists during the elections and gain a significant representation in parliament. The long-awaited deoligarchization of Moldova for the Europeans and the arrival of the faithful ACUM in power (albeit trailed by the socialists) significantly revived Moldova's European prospects. Moldova enjoyed the European thaw and, the ruling coalition - financial, media and political support of the EU within the five months of Maya Sandu’s government. The subsequent political rollover of the socialists and the collapse of the ACUM bloc undercut the foundation and called into question all the accumulated “warmth” in bilateral relations. The international partners, and especially the EU, perceived the unexpected resignation of Maya Sandu very negatively and, obviously, at their own expense. The socialists who came to power tried to bring down the degree of dissatisfaction of their Western partners, confirming at every opportunity the readiness to follow the previous course. It is enough to pay attention to the change in the political rhetoric of Igor Dodon, to the balanced foreign policy and to the achievements of the Cabinet of Sandu, including fiscal policy used by the government of Ion Chicu. The socialist leadership of Moldova emphasizes that relations with the European Union and the implementation of the Association Agreement with the EU remain the main priorities for Moldova. However, despite all the attempts of Igor Dodon and Ion Chicu to declare their commitment to the European integration, Brussels is in no hurry to re-enable the “cornucopia”. At the recent summit of the foreign ministers of the OSCE member states, Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu explicitly announced a review of Moldova’s support: “Romania’s support, including financial, will not be able to continue in expected volumes, but will be reoriented, depending on the specific actions of the new government ". At the same time, the Romanian Minister once again noted the success of the Cabinet of Maya Sandu in the implementation of reforms, the fight against corruption and the independence of justice assurance. And a few days later he submitted to the EU Council on Foreign Affairs a proposal to establish strict monitoring of the situation in Moldova. It is a matter of careful and strict monitoring of the actions of the Moldovan authorities to implement the Association Agreement with the EU and tightly link European aid to real progress in the implementation of reforms. At the European Parliament meeting on the prospects for the development of the Eastern Partnership, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini also openly stated that after the change of government in Chisinau, the need to reform remains relevant. She also emphasized that EU support for Moldova remains conditional on the fight against corruption and the depoliticization of state institutions. It would seem that the EU’s rhetoric is nothing new - financial assistance has always been closely linked with reforms and the fight against corruption. However, from the European stands, hints of support cessation begin to sound. Thus, the European MP from Romania Corina Crețu, said that within the recent meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, an item was added to the agenda regarding the situation in Moldova, which means both interest and concern. “We cannot foresee, but we have seen that some are discussing, among other things, the financial support cessation,” Crețu said On December 18-19, the 7th meeting of the Committee of the Parliamentary Association Moldova - the European Union took place in Strasbourg. The President of the European Parliament’s delegation to the EU-Moldova Association Committee, Romanian MEP Siegfried Muresan, said that the conditions that Moldova must meet in order to receive the third tranche of the macro-financial assistance in the amount of € 100 million are clear and precise. However, according to him, the appraisers will obviously recommend not to make any payments due to non-compliance of the conditions. “The new government should gain the trust of the international partners of the Republic of Moldova, such as the European Union. Until then, the EU will remain vigilant. We want to see clear results in the fight against corruption and money laundering, in strengthening the rule of law. We want to see the investigation of bank fraud ongoing. Only then we can move forward in unlocking further macro-financial assistance from the European Union,” the Romanian MP added. Naturally, Brussels will not do neither indulgences, nor steps forward for Igor Dodon and PSRM, easily allowable under conditionally pro-European authorities in Chisinau. Therefore, it is possible to predict a cooling in relations up to the level observed at the time of Democrats. Outwardly, the EU will try to demonstrate a pragmatic approach and will justify all actions through the prism of reform. However, it is obvious that progress in a key area, justice, will not suit the EU in any case, since real reform will threaten the complete dismantling of the current political configuration. The current leadership of Moldova is simply not ready for this. Thus, in 2020, Moldova is likely to expect a progressive deterioration in relations with European partners. This means that Moldova’s criticism of the EU’s venues, to which there was an unspoken moratorium during the Sandu government period, will resume with renewed vigor, while political and financial assistance will be stopped. On the way to preserve the Moldovan political Olympus, Brussels will not be an ally to Igor Dodon and the socialists.