Expert: The Socialists – Democrats Alliance Is in the Finishing Straight

SERGIU CEBAN The Party of Socialists and the Democratic Party have already “run-in” cooperation in the format of a minority government and are now ready to create an official coalition and ensure country’s stable governance As expected, the upcoming coalition should be formed in the very near future, and the transition to open negotiations between the PSRM and the PDM is an evidence of the final stage in the process to form the alliance. After all, it is known that for leaders of socialists and democrats parties latent interaction is the most familiar form, when the most difficult discussions are hidden from the curious public. Therefore, there is reason to believe that fundamental political decisions have already been made and the contours of the future union are outlined while the negotiation teams only agree on individual technical and organizational parameters. Recently, most Moldovan analysts have focused in their forecasts on “departments sorting” which will personally be assigned to one or another political force. Meanwhile, it seems that such close attention to this process is not entirely justified. The crystal lattice of the future alliance includes a much larger number of elements in which departmental affiliation has a very indirect significance. First of all, it is important to emphasize that, despite the collegiality of the future coalition, one way or another, the socialists and Igor Dodon personally will still play the main role in this alliance. Along with this, most likely, to ensure political balance, leading party groups will periodically coordinate actions and coordinate a common position on many fundamental issues. Based on the declarations of the party’s leadership, it seems that the PDM in the new government is planning to form its own “departmental package”, which should provide the firmest political positions and clear prospects. In particular, we are talking about: - political component: MFAEI or the Reintegration. Despite the ambiguity, however, the functionality of these posts is closely enough related to international activities while within the media environment actively circulates the information about Gheorghe Bălan’s return to the Transdniestrian direction; - power component: The Ministry of Defense or the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Given the participation of ex-Minister of the Interior Alexander Jizdan representing the Democrats in negotiations, one can assume that special emphasis will be made on the willingness to take under control the internal affairs bodies; - financial – economic component: it raises the least questions, because the Ministry of Economy, judging by the senior staff, has long been under the actual control of the Democratic Party. As already noted, departmental affiliation will be of secondary importance for the future alliance and the main factor will be to control and redistribute resources that will go into the system for further development. Judging by the last visit results of the Moldovan president to Moscow, the issue of granting the Russian loan remains difficult. In addition, it fell into the context of global economic crisis and sharp drop in financial and economic indicators in Russia itself. Nevertheless, a partial solution to this problem was found within the framework of legislative changes for which MPs and PDM deputies voted last week. In particular, it is planned to provide financial support by allocating part of the profits of the National Bank of Moldova to the budget of the republic. Experts believe that the future coalition agreement will cover the widest possible range of directions with the expectation of a long time span. Despite the fact that the Democrats will be bound by certain obligations in terms of ensuring the victory of Igor Dodon in the upcoming presidential election, there is an opinion that the presidential campaign will become the frontier for the alliance of PSRM and PDM. Regardless of the autumn situation in the country and the personal positions of the incumbent head of state Democrats will never miss the chance to raise rates and set new demands for their political gain. The first quarter of 2020 and the global events chain significantly reduced the predictability of regional processes that could develop according to completely unforeseen and not very positive scenarios. It seems that the situation with the coronavirus and the recession of the world economy can painfully hit the socio-economic situation of Moldova, which does not fit into the plans of the future majority coalition of socialists and democrats since they will have to work in a much more “stressful” state than was previously expected.