"Waiting for the Storm." Moldova Is Preparing for a New Political Fight

Vladimir ROTAR The opposition’s blitzkrieg aimed at Ion Chicu’s government resignation failed but the new political confrontation round is just beginning The Constitutional Court of Moldova decision, which blocked the Russian 200 million euros credit assistance receiving, was a signal to assault the positions of the ruling coalition. Almost all major opposition forces, one way or another, took part in it. As expected, the Andrian Candu group, implicitly supported by the SHOR party, was at the forefront of the offensive. Using the slight opponents’ demoralization after the “credit slap”, the attackers were able to arrange new deputies transfers from the Democratic Party ranks, just immediately after five other deputies left it. According to the parliament vice-chairman, Monica Babuc, the defectors were paid from 250 thousand to half a million euros. At the same time, Democrats migration continued not only at the “national” but also at the local level: A group of PDM advisers from Sangerei District joined Pro Moldova. In total, more than 150 local and District councilors of the Democratic Party have recently joined the Candu political formation. Thus, according to some reports, attempts to withdraw deputies from the parliamentary majority, including from the Party of Socialists are ongoing right now. In addition, one new blow to the president through the Constitutional Court is being prepared: Pro Moldova deputy Sergiu Sarbu has submitted a request to the Constitutional Court to suspend certain provisions aimed at giving extended powers to the Supreme Security Council headed by the head of state. Andrian Candu himself voiced a series of direct threats to the president, promising him an “interesting time” and the disclosure of “financial interests and schemes.” He already accused the head of state of collaborating with Russian special services and stated as well that appointing Pavel Filip as the head of the PDM was agreed with Vlad Plahotniuc during the Washington meeting (which, in fact, had long been Pulcinella’s secret, just as the remaining ties of Candu himself with the oligarch). Responding to the increasing attacks of opponents, Igor Dodon announced that the Supreme Security Council would be held. The stated subjects for consideration, i.e. the theft of a billion and the Chisinau airport concession, left no doubt who will get under the president's "blows" through the Council decisions. In this regard, many experts were expecting almost breakthrough statements and even, possibly, the beginning of procedural measures against some opposition representatives. Though, demonstrating progress in the theft of the century case was rewarding to the current government also because this is the main condition for receiving the next tranche of the EU macro-financial assistance. In fact, no sensations followed - the information voiced by Igor Dodon at the briefing after the Council meeting made it clear that the president has no intention to sharply raise rates and ramp it up to the life-or-death struggle, preferring not to initiate a full political crisis in such a tough period. However, a number of unambiguous hints were nevertheless made. Thus, Dodon, without indicating names, stated that the "architects" of the theft of a billion were members of the Financial Stability Committee. Notably, in 2013-2014 one of its members was Andrian Candu, the then Minister of Economics. This might be a signal to the ex-democrat that if Pro Moldova continues to attack the ruling coalition, the corresponding criminal cases will not be long in coming. The political events of the past ten days were so drastic that at one point many experts believed the fall of the Chicu government and a new ruling coalition were inevitable. However, no blitzkrieg against socialist and democratic positions took place, largely because of the pro-European forces passivity. Despite the fact that the ACUM bloc constituent parts are now much less sensitive in choosing partners for dialogue under strong external influence, the reluctance of the pro-European forces to become fully involved in the current political conflict is quite obvious. It is certainly not a secret for PAS and DA who exactly conducts the offensive actions of the current "opposition", and they obviously do not want to join the new dubious partnership. Therefore, despite the declared readiness to talk with all the forces interested in overthrowing the current government, the pro-Europeans at the same time set a number of currently unfeasible conditions. Firstly, they are ready to support a vote of no confidence in the Chicu government, but only if there is a ready-made agreement on the Cabinet's new composition ("a bad government is better than no government at all", according to Sandu). Secondly, cooperation with the Shor party faction is still the “red line”, which neither PAS nor DA categorically intend to step over, as the leaders of these parties repeatedly spoke about this week. It is easy to guess that without the Shor party votes the notorious “mathematics” for reformatting the ruling elite, recently deliberated by Maia Sandu, simply fails. Apparently, ACUM is in no hurry to force things, as predicted by the RTA experts. The bloc is well aware how risky it is now to take responsibility for the post-quarantine crisis in the country, especially in cooperation with parliamentary factions actually controlled by Plahotniuc and Shor. Under these conditions, the pro-Europeans will probably prefer to sit out in a comfortable opposition “rear”, watching the battle between PSRM and PDM from one side and Pro Moldova and SHOR groups from another. Most likely, it is along this line (with the sporadic interference of pro-European forces) that the most fierce confrontation will take place in the near future. The outcome of the current fight primarily depends on the PDM fraction's stability, which opponents will continue to shake simultaneously with blows through a loyal CS and massive leaks of one kind or another compromising material. The ruling coalition, in turn, can respond by initiating a series of criminal cases against the most prominent "frontiers", primarily Andrian Candu, but this is already fraught with conflict with some influential external players. Now it’s hard to bet what the current confrontation might end by, but it’s clear that the political storm starting in Moldova is quite capable of sweeping away both the current government and its opponents.